MUCH WARMER times ahead for the Midwest/GL/NE next week.
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MUCH WARMER times ahead for the Midwest/GL/NE next week.
Closed low develops across the western part of the country on TUE and WED of next week in response to trough splitting, setting up pronounced RNA pattern -- which will contribute to the re-development of strong deep layer ridging downstream over the EUS by WED (per 5/6 12z ECMWF), as H850 temps increase to over +20C across the nations midsection, being pulled Northeastward by the South and SW flow around 850H ridge, the axis of which should be running just N of the Gulf coast on WED.
By THU, the warm air spreads EWD w/ downsloping NW flow along the lee side of the Appalachians over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. 850H temps are progged in the in the +16-18C range, which under full sun in JUN could allow SFC temps to rise into the +31-33C (87-91F) range, however w/ previously mentioned downsloping, and near full sun (which is what we're assuming using 850 temps) Lower 90s may be attainable.
One factor working AGAINST the heat would be the more moist ground across this region, something which we did not see across the SE.
For those interested, here is an EASY way to convert Celsius to Fahrenheit and Fahrenheit to Celsius:
F = (9/5 * C) + 32
C = (F-32) * 5/9
Where, C = the temperature in degrees Celsius, and F = the temperature in DEG Fahrenheit.
For example, IF you want to find the temperature in DEG F for an 850H temp of +16 C, you would replace C w/ 16 (since C=16), and therefore your equation should look like this:
F = (9/5 * 16) + 32
You can then finish solving for F
By THU, the warm air spreads EWD w/ downsloping NW flow along the lee side of the Appalachians over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. 850H temps are progged in the in the +16-18C range, which under full sun in JUN could allow SFC temps to rise into the +31-33C (87-91F) range, however w/ previously mentioned downsloping, and near full sun (which is what we're assuming using 850 temps) Lower 90s may be attainable.
One factor working AGAINST the heat would be the more moist ground across this region, something which we did not see across the SE.
For those interested, here is an EASY way to convert Celsius to Fahrenheit and Fahrenheit to Celsius:
F = (9/5 * C) + 32
C = (F-32) * 5/9
Where, C = the temperature in degrees Celsius, and F = the temperature in DEG Fahrenheit.
For example, IF you want to find the temperature in DEG F for an 850H temp of +16 C, you would replace C w/ 16 (since C=16), and therefore your equation should look like this:
F = (9/5 * 16) + 32
You can then finish solving for F
Last edited by USAwx1 on Sat Jun 05, 2004 11:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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BOTH the 00z and 06z 6/5 GFS runs had 850H temps of +18-20C over most of the SRN Lakes into PA/SRN NY/NJ, and SRN New England between 18z WED and 0z THU, south of frontal boundary which should set up at the SFC from Northern new england, through the NRN lakes into the Upper Midwest.
0z VT 18z WED
0z VT 0z THU
06z VT 18z WED
06z VT 0z THU
These 850H temps alone suggest Max temps of 91-95F (ASSUMING we have FULL SUN, if we do not, then those temps would NOT be reached), figure in the west/west-northwest wind (downsloping component E of the apps) and Mid 90s are well within the realm of possibility ESPECIALLY for PHL and NYC.
0z VT 18z WED

0z VT 0z THU

06z VT 18z WED

06z VT 0z THU

These 850H temps alone suggest Max temps of 91-95F (ASSUMING we have FULL SUN, if we do not, then those temps would NOT be reached), figure in the west/west-northwest wind (downsloping component E of the apps) and Mid 90s are well within the realm of possibility ESPECIALLY for PHL and NYC.
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- wx247
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Looks like we may crack 90º here next week depending on how quickly the soil can dry out here.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Yeah, it's possible. the 12z GFS came in about the same this afternoon WRT 850H temps over the Midwest/Lakes and NE this WED into THU.
the 0z ECMWF was warmer for you in MO w/ 850H temps of +18-20C, however COOLER than the previous 0z, 6z and 12z GFS over the Northeast.
IF the ECMWF is correct FRI could be a very warm day in the DC area, w/ 850H temps exceeding +18 C, and WNW flow along the lee side of the mountains. That as strong frontal boundary sets up along or Just South of the US/CAN border.
On SAT, Backdoor front may put an end to the warmth in the NE and NRN Mid Atlantic, however the Midwest will still continue under the influence of SW flow at 850H continuing to advect warmer air northward into the Southwestern lakes.

the 0z ECMWF was warmer for you in MO w/ 850H temps of +18-20C, however COOLER than the previous 0z, 6z and 12z GFS over the Northeast.
IF the ECMWF is correct FRI could be a very warm day in the DC area, w/ 850H temps exceeding +18 C, and WNW flow along the lee side of the mountains. That as strong frontal boundary sets up along or Just South of the US/CAN border.
On SAT, Backdoor front may put an end to the warmth in the NE and NRN Mid Atlantic, however the Midwest will still continue under the influence of SW flow at 850H continuing to advect warmer air northward into the Southwestern lakes.
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Per Today's 0z ECMWF -- 850H temps CRASH from between +18-20C at 0z THU across New England to <10C by 0z FRI as backdoor cold front plows through the region.
The front should get hung up across the Northern Mid Atlantic, making it perhaps as far South as NE NC, then running NW through Central VA, the eastern OH valley and into the central /SRN lakes before eventually retreating back to the Northeast on SUN, which will warm things up again.
The same ECMWF run has 850H temps BACK up into the +16-18C range over the Chicago region by SUN afternoon.
Bottom line, this two day WARM spell across the Northeast and New england WED and THU will NOT be long lived as FRI will see cooler temps from DCA north, and SAT should see a return to cooler temps from roughly ORF northeastward.
The front should get hung up across the Northern Mid Atlantic, making it perhaps as far South as NE NC, then running NW through Central VA, the eastern OH valley and into the central /SRN lakes before eventually retreating back to the Northeast on SUN, which will warm things up again.
The same ECMWF run has 850H temps BACK up into the +16-18C range over the Chicago region by SUN afternoon.
Bottom line, this two day WARM spell across the Northeast and New england WED and THU will NOT be long lived as FRI will see cooler temps from DCA north, and SAT should see a return to cooler temps from roughly ORF northeastward.
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- Stormsfury
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12z data running very late (except on the ECMWF site itself ... but those very low res graphics do nothing for temperature interpretation) ...
Earlier graphics ...
Day 4 0z ECMWF places an 18.7ºC H85 isotherm right over Massachusetts. With full downslope component and barring any significant cloud cover, that region shouldn't have any problems reaching the low/mid 90's ...

Earlier graphics ...
Day 4 0z ECMWF places an 18.7ºC H85 isotherm right over Massachusetts. With full downslope component and barring any significant cloud cover, that region shouldn't have any problems reaching the low/mid 90's ...

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Yep 850H temps of 18-19C under full sun w/ westerly wind (downsloping)/return flow around high pressure, plus good Warm Air Advection occuring over the region, should yield SFC temps (highs) of (35-36C) 95-96F.
I'm not sure if it will get to that extreme, as any cloud cover would limit SFC heating somewhat, but low to mid 90s are a good bet IF the ECMWF is correct with the placement of 850H temps of that magnitude over the region.
I'm not sure if it will get to that extreme, as any cloud cover would limit SFC heating somewhat, but low to mid 90s are a good bet IF the ECMWF is correct with the placement of 850H temps of that magnitude over the region.
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- Stormsfury
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Yep, and we're still waiting on the 12z ECMWF to update ... (not even updated on the Plymouth State College Make your own site ...
)
One of the things that MAY save the Midwest from a massive heat wave are
1) Very saturated soil moisture
2) (which leads) to having to evaporate higher humidities ... temperature may not reach excessive levels, but the heat indices will nevertheless have an oppotunity to be quite oppressive.
SF

One of the things that MAY save the Midwest from a massive heat wave are
1) Very saturated soil moisture
2) (which leads) to having to evaporate higher humidities ... temperature may not reach excessive levels, but the heat indices will nevertheless have an oppotunity to be quite oppressive.
SF
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Stormsfury wrote:Yep, and we're still waiting on the 12z ECMWF to update ... (not even updated on the Plymouth State College Make your own site ...)
One of the things that MAY save the Midwest from a massive heat wave are
1) Very saturated soil moisture
2) (which leads) to having to evaporate higher humidities ... temperature may not reach excessive levels, but the heat indices will nevertheless have an oppotunity to be quite oppressive.
SF
Ah you beat me to it LOL, but as long as the flow isn't Northwesterly over the NE and New England -- East of the mountains (which if Northwesterly would contribute to downsloping and warmer temps but tend to dry things out in the lower levels), heat indices COULD get oppressive over the region.
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- Stormsfury
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USAwx1 wrote:Stormsfury wrote:Yep, and we're still waiting on the 12z ECMWF to update ... (not even updated on the Plymouth State College Make your own site ...)
One of the things that MAY save the Midwest from a massive heat wave are
1) Very saturated soil moisture
2) (which leads) to having to evaporate higher humidities ... temperature may not reach excessive levels, but the heat indices will nevertheless have an oppotunity to be quite oppressive.
SF
Ah you beat me to it LOL, but as long as the flow isn't Northwesterly over the NE and New England -- East of the mountains (which if Northwesterly would contribute to downsloping and warmer temps but tend to dry things out in the lower levels), heat indices COULD get oppressive over the region.
Finally, the 12z ECMWF data has updated and has backed off a little on the NE, but really heats things in the Western Plains States in the SR ... Quite the summer polar high slides into the NE on Day 4 but that, too, is only short-lived as heat rebuilds in from the West, and by Day 7, a 20.5ºC maxima at H85 shows up in Illinois, with general temp 18º-20ºC across much of the Plains States ... heating up quite a bit in TX/OK ...
SF
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12z ECMWF is out and it looks as if THU will still be a warm day in the RIC-DCA corridor, w/ 850H temps of 16-18C however w/ the frontal boundary sitting right along the PA/MD border, strongly doubt we'll see full sun.
So w/ that in mind....850H temps should only yield highs in the 80s, w/ lower 80s being predominant closer to the front where clouds and precip will limit SFC heating significantly, and upper 80s further south where there are more breaks of sun and SFC heating is stronger.
So w/ that in mind....850H temps should only yield highs in the 80s, w/ lower 80s being predominant closer to the front where clouds and precip will limit SFC heating significantly, and upper 80s further south where there are more breaks of sun and SFC heating is stronger.
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Stormsfury wrote:USAwx1 wrote:Stormsfury wrote:Yep, and we're still waiting on the 12z ECMWF to update ... (not even updated on the Plymouth State College Make your own site ...)
One of the things that MAY save the Midwest from a massive heat wave are
1) Very saturated soil moisture
2) (which leads) to having to evaporate higher humidities ... temperature may not reach excessive levels, but the heat indices will nevertheless have an oppotunity to be quite oppressive.
SF
Ah you beat me to it LOL, but as long as the flow isn't Northwesterly over the NE and New England -- East of the mountains (which if Northwesterly would contribute to downsloping and warmer temps but tend to dry things out in the lower levels), heat indices COULD get oppressive over the region.
Finally, the 12z ECMWF data has updated and has backed off a little on the NE, but really heats things in the Western Plains States in the SR ... Quite the summer polar high slides into the NE on Day 4 but that, too, is only short-lived as heat rebuilds in from the West, and by Day 7, a 20.5ºC maxima at H85 shows up in Illinois, with general temp 18º-20ºC across much of the Plains States ... heating up quite a bit in TX/OK ...
SF
the same trend was seen in the ETA and GFS over the past few days.
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- Stormsfury
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the same trend was seen in the ETA and GFS over the past few days.
Noticed that, also ... also seems like the ECMWF warm bias has been playing some role as well ... I've noticed that the 0z ECMWF runs are generally a bit warmer than the 12z runs (but part of that is probably attributed to the time of day - 8 am vs. 8 pm) ...
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- wx247
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Great discussion guys! I am learning a lot. Keep on pluggin' away! 

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Temps for WED at Boston based on MAV numbers are progged at 88F.
--------------------------------------
KBOS GFS MOS GUIDANCE 6/06/2004 1800 UTC
DT /JUNE 7 /JUNE 8 /JUNE 9
HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X 50 69 60 87 69
TMP 51 51 50 50 55 62 66 67 64 62 62 62 68 79 83 84 79 75 73 75 88
DPT 48 48 48 48 49 52 53 54 55 56 56 57 60 61 61 62 62 62 61 63 65
CLD OV OV OV OV BK SC BK SC FW FW BK BK BK SC SC FW FW CL CL SC SC
WDR 05 03 02 36 35 05 09 14 19 22 24 24 25 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 24
WSP 11 06 06 06 06 05 06 08 05 06 07 06 07 09 13 16 14
14 12 09 14
P06 21 9 1 0 6 7 0 2 0 1 0
P12 26 2 8 2 1
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 0/ 0 2/ 0 0/ 0 0/13 4/ 0 2/ 0 2/ 0 2/18 0/ 3 3/ 0
T12 2/ 0 4/13 3/ 0 5/18 6/ 1
CIG 5 4 5 3 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV BR BR BR N N N N N N N N BR N N N N N N N N N
--------------------------------
the new 12z ECMWF has 850H temps progged at 14-16C at 12z WED, which when we have accounted for the sky conditions, warm advection and downsloping flow E of the Mountains, we should end up w/ SFC temps of 32-34C (89-93F)
If we blend the two we come up with highs near 90.
--------------------------------------
KBOS GFS MOS GUIDANCE 6/06/2004 1800 UTC
DT /JUNE 7 /JUNE 8 /JUNE 9
HR 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 12 18
N/X 50 69 60 87 69
TMP 51 51 50 50 55 62 66 67 64 62 62 62 68 79 83 84 79 75 73 75 88
DPT 48 48 48 48 49 52 53 54 55 56 56 57 60 61 61 62 62 62 61 63 65
CLD OV OV OV OV BK SC BK SC FW FW BK BK BK SC SC FW FW CL CL SC SC
WDR 05 03 02 36 35 05 09 14 19 22 24 24 25 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 24
WSP 11 06 06 06 06 05 06 08 05 06 07 06 07 09 13 16 14
14 12 09 14
P06 21 9 1 0 6 7 0 2 0 1 0
P12 26 2 8 2 1
Q06 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q12 0 0 0 0 0
T06 0/ 0 2/ 0 0/ 0 0/13 4/ 0 2/ 0 2/ 0 2/18 0/ 3 3/ 0
T12 2/ 0 4/13 3/ 0 5/18 6/ 1
CIG 5 4 5 3 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
VIS 4 5 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
OBV BR BR BR N N N N N N N N BR N N N N N N N N N
--------------------------------
the new 12z ECMWF has 850H temps progged at 14-16C at 12z WED, which when we have accounted for the sky conditions, warm advection and downsloping flow E of the Mountains, we should end up w/ SFC temps of 32-34C (89-93F)
If we blend the two we come up with highs near 90.
Last edited by USAwx1 on Sun Jun 06, 2004 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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wx247 wrote:Great discussion guys! I am learning a lot. Keep on pluggin' away!
Thanks...
Stormsfury wrote:the same trend was seen in the ETA and GFS over the past few days.
Noticed that, also ... also seems like the ECMWF warm bias has been playing some role as well ... I've noticed that the 0z ECMWF runs are generally a bit warmer than the 12z runs (but part of that is probably attributed to the time of day - 8 am vs. 8 pm) ...
yeah, but thats where being able to pick out trends in the data come into play, the ETA was VERY bullish a few days ago w/ 850H temps of over 18C over a good portion of the Northeast between 18z and 0z WED-THU, and has now backed off considerably, ditto that for the GFS operational.
the ECMWF has been the warmest, which puts it at odds w/ the cooler ETA, and the ETA into better agreement w/ the GFS over the past day or so.
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- Stormsfury
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USAwx1 wrote:wx247 wrote:Great discussion guys! I am learning a lot. Keep on pluggin' away!
Thanks...Stormsfury wrote:the same trend was seen in the ETA and GFS over the past few days.
Noticed that, also ... also seems like the ECMWF warm bias has been playing some role as well ... I've noticed that the 0z ECMWF runs are generally a bit warmer than the 12z runs (but part of that is probably attributed to the time of day - 8 am vs. 8 pm) ...
yeah, but thats where being able to pick out trends in the data come into play, the ETA was VERY bullish a few days ago w/ 850H temps of over 18C over a good portion of the Northeast between 18z and 0z WED-THU, and has now backed off considerably, ditto that for the GFS operational.
the ECMWF has been the warmest, which puts it at odds w/ the cooler ETA, and the ETA into better agreement w/ the GFS over the past day or so.
Yep ... one thing that REALLY encourages me is that the ETA is emphatic on bringing some discrete little s/w's through enhancing my chances of afternoon convection for the next few days ... something that definitely has been lacking in May...
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