TSR folks lower their numbers for the season

YouTube · #1 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 5:39 pm

For what it's worth- the folks at Tropical Storm Risk have reduced their numbers a little.

Check it out:

http://forecast.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/shadow/d ... un2004.pdf

Anyone see why?

Stormsfury · #2 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 5:58 pm

I do ... however, I tend to disagree with the RATIO, although the overall idea is right ... an above 50% number of TC's becoming hurricanes ... My numbers reflect the HIGH end of the scale based on a blend of current indices either favorable or unfavorable for TC development, AND climatology ... which lend credence to lowering the numbers (analogs shows that MOST, not all seasons with 16 or more TC's in a season was followed by a reduction of TC's the following year, and generally most of those years were below the climatological average ...

This link HERE provides my thoughts for my final numbers, and my previous thoughts back in Mid-December, including analog years that I've based my #'s on...

One train of thought is the potential displacement of the subtropical ridge having some factor in maybe disrupting some potential systems (too far south) ... another factor would lend credence to the season starting off fairly slow ... (no early season TC's) ...

I, myself, believe, the ratio of TC's becoming hurricanes will be higher than previous years, and with the numbers I have reflect that (about a 72% ratio of TC's becoming hurricanes this year) ... ALSO, the general pattern would lead me to believe that more in the way of truer, and deeper latitude systems develop, and much less in the way of hybrid/transition to TC's, and better developed systems...

SF

Guest · #3 Postby **Guest** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 6:24 pm

So they dropped their numbers. They will up them by August or blow their forecast! They call for average SST's and they are running slightly above average now. I normally don't read these, being I don't want any influence from other resources, but I think they should have stuck to their april numbers!

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 7:23 pm

I conservatively estimate that 65 % of TC to be hurricanes this year.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 7:25 pm

TSR has the tendency to be conservative and they bust most of the time...not as bad as the wx research center though. :lol:

#6 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 7:38 pm

Dr. Mark Saunders forecasted the NAO Positive the past two winters and busted both times -- badly.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 7:43 pm

What has been TSR performance in past seasons when forecasts is concerned? As I see that site they change monthly their numbers and projections.

#8 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 8:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:What has been TSR performance in past seasons when forecasts is concerned? As I see that site they change monthly their numbers and projections.

I dont have the answer to the first question, i only am aware of Dr. Saunders skill in forecasting the winter NAO, however w/ it being June 6, IMO its sort of pointless to change your numbers AFTER the seasonal has already started and considering as how this is not a mid-season update so to speak, it makes no sense to change 6 days after the season starts. if they wanted to do this they had the entire month of may to do so. why wait until now? :roll:

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 8:12 pm

Agree 100% USAwx1 with what you said about they making a forecast after the season has started.It is much better to do a forecast for the season before it starts.I think that these people TSR will once again change forecasts at July,August,September,October. :roll:

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 8:16 pm

USAwx1 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What has been TSR performance in past seasons when forecasts is concerned? As I see that site they change monthly their numbers and projections.

I dont have the answer to the first question, i only am aware of Dr. Saunders skill in forecasting the winter NAO, however w/ it being June 6, IMO its sort of pointless to change your numbers AFTER the seasonal has already started and considering as how this is not a mid-season update so to speak, it makes no sense to change 6 days after the season starts. if they wanted to do this they had the entire month of may to do so. why wait until now?

Agreed....this is similar to the debate over Gray's updates. While I do know why these updates are reasonable, I still think it would be best to stick with the #s posted before the beginning of the season and see what happens.

#11 Postby **USAwx1** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 8:38 pm

TropicalWxWatcher wrote:
USAwx1 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:What has been TSR performance in past seasons when forecasts is concerned? As I see that site they change monthly their numbers and projections.

I dont have the answer to the first question, i only am aware of Dr. Saunders skill in forecasting the winter NAO, however w/ it being June 6, IMO its sort of pointless to change your numbers AFTER the seasonal has already started and considering as how this is not a mid-season update so to speak, it makes no sense to change 6 days after the season starts. if they wanted to do this they had the entire month of may to do so. why wait until now?

Agreed....this is similar to the debate over Gray's updates. While I do know why these updates are reasonable, I still think it would be best to stick with the #s posted before the beginning of the season and see what happens.

cycloneye wrote:Agree 100% USAwx1 with what you said about they making a forecast after the season has started.It is much better to do a forecast for the season before it starts.I think that these people TSR will once again change forecasts at July,August,September,October.

it's also pointless to change them monthly. Do your best to Pick a set of numbers and stick to them.

Some seasons i will only make one modification to my initial numbers from the final forecast prior to the start of the season. And that is in my Mid AUG update.

This year i have already made one modification to my numbers during the second half of May after the release of my tropical outlook in late APR -- to increase the number of Hurricanes and IH's by one (see the link in my sig.)

The only other update i plan on making to my numbers will be in my mid AUG update.

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 07, 2004 8:43 pm

I made my forecast for the season in mid April and I will not change anything in the months ahead until november 30th when I will see how my forecast did not only in the numbers game but how all the factors played out from what I projected.

mf_dolphin · #13 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Tue Jun 08, 2004 7:02 am

I beg to differ on why people change their numbers. Professionals are forecasting for their customers. These are businesses and insurance companies. They change their forecasts based on the best available information at the time and update it as they see things change. They are not doing it to say who had the best pre-season numbers....

#14 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 08, 2004 8:11 am

After all projections are just that, projections. Until the season ends and we know the final numbers, until that everyone guess is acceptable, no one is wrong and no one is right.

Sandy Delgado

#15 Postby **elw** » Fri Jun 11, 2004 11:25 pm

The net NAO value for the 2002-03 winter (December-February) was -0.3, and the value for 2003-04 was -0.1.

Looking at the SSTA configuration across the Atlantic basin right now,

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 8.2004.gif

and crossing that with their algorithm, i'm guessing they'll probably forecast it negative this year because of the cold water off of Southeast Canada and the warm water surrounding Greenland. It's the complete reverse of what they assume to be a signal for a positive NAO based on that method.

TSR folks lower their numbers for the season

TSR folks lower their numbers for the season

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