94E, WILL IT DEVELOP, OR NOT?

[HURAKAN]

The disturbance off the Mexican coast near Manzanillo has been trying to develop for a few days but the shear has not let it do so. For a few days we have been expecting the possible development of at least TD-2E but every time we see thunderstorms developing over the low level circulation, a few hours later they just die out. The low have been through many or several bursting situationS but none of them have been permanent. At this moment, 9:53 P.M. EDT, a new cluster of thunderstorms is developing of what seems to be the low level circulation. Something that we have seen since the beginning is that the system has maintain its distance from the coast moving in a parallel way. Although it may not be right I think this system will not develop into nothing more of what now it is, a low level circulation system. I believe the future of the low will be moving toward the Mexican coast and after landfall dissipate, or just dissipate over water, simply because shear doesn't seems to be relaxing over the system.



http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g9shr.html

SANDY DELGADO

[Aquawind]

It's a close call..If the Current storms are still there in the morning with some deep convection at the LLC it could make TD status...It needs some deep convection to persist alrighty..

[USAwx1]

It's a close call..If the Current storms are still there in the morning with some deep convection at the LLC it could make TD status...It needs some deep convection to persist alrighty..

As it can develop as much deep convection as it wants, BUT if it remains disjointed from the LLC, then development won't occur anyway. Right now the MOST it is doing is bringing some rain/wind and squalls to the coast of Mexico.

The circulation center MUST remained intact as well.

[Aquawind]

Stacked with Deep convection overhead..ohh yeahhh..Thats what we be talkin about..