Blas today

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Aquawind
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Blas today

#1 Postby Aquawind » Tue Jun 08, 2004 6:56 am

Convection has increased and expanded overnight..we shall see..

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081030
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM PDT TUE JUNE 8 2004

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
OR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST
AND INLAND AREAS BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND ACAPULCO FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 08, 2004 7:03 am

Well at least a td is there today and maybe Blas can sneak in before conditions in the upper levels go downhill for the system.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 08, 2004 8:04 am

Well, at least a TD is forming. Yesterday I explained that what only the system needed to develop was to maintain a permanent cluster of thunderstorms over the center of circulation and as we have seen that has happened over the last 24 hours. Let see what the NHC has to say as the day goes on.

Sandy Delgado
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Tue Jun 08, 2004 11:41 am

Well the convection has warmed big time..with a competing low level swirl on qscat....eventually something will come together..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:02 pm

Again we see the disturbance off the Mexican coast going from looking good for development to not very good now.

Sandy Delgado
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#6 Postby wx247 » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:04 pm

It looks all right, it is just that the biggest thunderstorms have gone bye bye.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 08, 2004 12:35 pm

The LLC is well defined there but lacks deep convection.Time is running out for it to go ahead and develop.
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