No change for ENSO in the comming months

[cycloneye]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

Nothing new really as the new forecasat for ENSO is out.Neutral conditions will prevail during the 2004 season.

[Aquawind]

No El Nino savior this year..

[HURAKAN]

Last year's neutral conditions gave us a very interesting year, probably with neutral conditions this year is going to be interesting too. I hope not too interesting, meaning, several major hurricanes impacting land. Keep safe and as I always say; "HOPE FOR THE BEST, PREPARE FOR THE WORSE".

Sandy Delgado

[USAwx1]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif

Nothing new really as the new forecasat for ENSO is out.Neutral conditions will prevail during the 2004 season.

What i'm more interested in is the fact that the model has backed off on developing borderline moderate warm ENSO conditions, in the SEP-OCT-NOV period after showing it for SEVERAL months.

It also appears to have initialized the cool tongue in the NINO 1+2 region fairly well.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

[Aquawind]

What i'm more interested in is the fact that the model has backed off on developing borderline moderate warm ENSO conditions, in the SEP-OCT-NOV period after showing it for SEVERAL months.

I thought it looked like it had backed off if anything..

[USAwx1]

What i'm more interested in is the fact that the model has backed off on developing borderline moderate warm ENSO conditions, in the SEP-OCT-NOV period after showing it for SEVERAL months.

I thought it looked like it had backed off if anything..

That's what i said. And it normally takes MODERATE or STRONG El Nino to really influence (in a negative way) the Atlantic tropical season.

take for example 1969:

ONI (oceanic NINO Index)
1969 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6

it was ALSO a year in which the QBO was switcing from east to west:
1969 -8.58 -4.43 -1.50 3.98 8.18 9.35 9.08 9.78 9.74 9.75 7.34 5.00

1969 was a VERY active season w/ 18 names storms, 12 canes, and 5 IH's. That included the MONSTER Camille.

# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ANNA 25 JUL- 5 AUG 60 1002 -
2 Hurricane BLANCHE 11-13 AUG 75 997 1
3 Hurricane CAMILLE 14-22 AUG 165 905 5
4 Hurricane DEBBIE 14-25 AUG 105 951 3
5 Tropical Storm EVE 25-27 AUG 50 996 -
6 Hurricane FRANCELIA 29 AUG- 4 SEP 100 973 3
7 Hurricane GERDA 6-10 SEP 110 979 3
8 Hurricane HOLLY 14-21 SEP 75 984 1
9 Hurricane INGA 20 SEP-15 OCT 100 964 3
10 Hurricane #10 21-26 SEP 65 985 1
11 Tropical Storm #11 24-30 SEP 60 990 -
12 Subtropical Storm 1 29 SEP- 1 OCT 50 996 -
13 Tropical Storm JENNY 1- 6 OCT 40 1000 -
14 Hurricane KARA 7-19 OCT 90 978 2
15 Hurricane LAURIE 17-27 OCT 90 973 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 28-31 OCT 60 990 -
17 Hurricane #17 30 OCT- 7 NOV 65 988 1
18 Hurricane MARTHA 21-25 NOV 80 979 1





Notice SSTA over the EPAC NINO regions 1+2 and 3.0 were Above +1.0, in the meaes for the JUN-NOV period, and the 1969 seasons was STILL active.



The same thing applies to the 2002 Season.



That year had isidore and Lili. Otherwise 2002 featured 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes and two majors.

# Name Dates Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 14-19 JUL 50 992 -
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA 4- 9 AUG 35 1008 -
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 5- 8 AUG 45 999 -
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY 29 AUG- 4 SEP 50 997 -
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 1- 6 SEP 55 1002 -
6 Tropical Storm FAY 5-11 SEP 50 998 -
7 Hurricane GUSTAV 8-15 SEP 85 960 2
8 Tropical Storm HANNA 12-15 SEP 50 1001 -
9 Hurricane ISIDORE 14-27 SEP 110 934 3
10 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE 17-19 SEP 50 1004 -
11 Hurricane KYLE 20 SEP-12 OCT 75 980 1
12 Hurricane LILI 21 SEP- 4 OCT 125 940 4






2002 ONI:
2002 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3

2002 QBO:
2002 4.64 8.00 9.32 14.03 14.16 13.26 10.05 10.60 8.90 7.66 4.46 -0.50

[Anonymous]

Even I was a bit surprised with the latest run since the CPC model usually doesn't predict anything other than warm conditions. I wouldn't say that it's a sign of oncoming La Nina conditions though.

[USAwx1]

Even I was a bit surprised with the latest run since the CPC model usually doesn't predict anything other than warm conditions. I wouldn't say that it's a sign of oncoming La Nina conditions though.

I agree, if anything this is the most in touch w/ reality that the model has been for several months.

[Aquawind]

That's what i said. And it normally takes MODERATE or STRONG El Nino to really influence (in a negative way) the Atlantic tropical season.

I was agreeing..I hear ya..were not close to getting influence from El Nino this season..

No Nina either alrighty..1969 huh...evil analogy

[Stormsfury]

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif

Nothing new really as the new forecasat for ENSO is out.Neutral conditions will prevail during the 2004 season.

What i'm more interested in is the fact that the model has backed off on developing borderline moderate warm ENSO conditions, in the SEP-OCT-NOV period after showing it for SEVERAL months.

It also appears to have initialized the cool tongue in the NINO 1+2 region fairly well.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Wow ... the CPC model may have either ...

1) Comes to grips in reality
2) 1997-1998 El Niño Part 2 is on the way ... NOT!

The CPC model has seemingly initialized the cool anomalies well ...

One of the things that I'd like to know is just what the state of the ATL thermaline circulation was in 1969 ... we all know it's been ABV normal since 1995, and that will continue for many years to come. ALSO, notice that we're possibly seeing the signs of a warm phase PDO ...

Now, the word of caution...whether the numbers are above or below what is being progged by many, just ignore that for the moment and review BOTH YEARS ... . The atmospheric and SST's signals point to continued increased activity ... but MORE SO THE FOLLOWING ...

1) SST anomalies are strikingly similar to 2002 ...

Click HERE - June 6th, 2002

Click HERE - June 8th, 2004

2) BOTH 1969 and 2002 featured El Niño Conditions ...

From CPC Previous ENSO Impacts on the U.S. ---

Code: Select all

1968-1970 Warm Moderate
1970-1971 Cold Moderate

Click HERE for Source

2004 - Expecting Neutral Conditions as WORST ... but does that necessarily mean we'll see more storms than 1968 or 2002 ... No. Not only does it remind us that the ENSO state just isn't the primary factor ... and obviously in 1969, it was all about opportunity, and the ability for budding storms to take FULL advantage of that opportunity.

Let's look at years 1968-1971 ...

Code: Select all

Year ... TC's ... Hur. ... Maj.
1968      8         5        0
1969     18        12        5           
1970     10         5        2           
1971     13         6        1

Another thing about 1969 is that FIVE storms had their beginnings as SUBTROPICAL STORMS (typical of El Niño) ... 1971 had NONE (typical of La Niña) ...

Click for 1969's Best Track Text Plots



Click for 1971's Best Track Text Plots



2002 had TWO subtropical storms in their beginnings ... Gustav, and Kyle ... and notice the similarities ... and PRIMARY STORM TRACK as compared to 1969, and 1971 ... States along the GOM had some issues with TC's in those years, and the general idea for this season may not change .. yet again.



NOW, this year, this is NOT progged to be a Niño or a Niña year ... NOW, some speculation ...

Code: Select all

1932 Warm  Moderate
1938-1939 Cold Strong

Code: Select all

Year ... TC's ... Hur. ... Maj.
1932     11         6        4
1933     21        10        5
1934     11         6        0
1935      6         5        3
1936     16         8        1
1937      9         3        0
1938      8         3        1
1939      5         3        1

Notice of course, 1932-1934 and 1936 ... however, NOTICE 1938-1939 .. STRONG LA NIñA but ONLY 8, and 5 TC's respectively ... it is PRESUMED that the ATL thermaline circulation state was much like that with what we saw in the 1970's, 1980's, and early 1990's ... well, now 1969 was obviously heading towards the END of the stronger ATL thermaline circulation as well ...

I still believe my sesaonal numbers themselves are quite fine ... but I did not predict landfalls or anything like that ... that takes too much time that I do not have ... but if I were to place my bets this year ... GOM residents need to be wary with with the analogs, AND what I'm seeing with the overall general longwave pattern this year...

SF

[USAwx1]

WOW Awesome post....

The ATC strong cycle lasted from 1947-1977, then switched back to weak in 1977-1997, and is now strong once again. Like the PDO, there CAN be short term variations in the ATC cycle during the longer term Strong and Weak cycles.

1969 was within the ATC strong/PDO cold phases, plus it also featured a west QBO. Ditto that for 2002.

This likely proves three things:

1) the long-term PDO/ATC cycles have a STRONGER influence on atlantic and East PAC numbers than the ENSO. Where Atlantic activity will run ABOVE AVG in the means while the PDO is in the negative phase and ATC is strong, and EPAC activity below normal. During the PDO positive, and ATC weak cycles, Atlantic activity is diminished and EPAC activity, increased.

2) When combined w/ a west QBO, the ENSO signal is further drowned out.

3) It takes a Moderate to strong warm episode in order to mitigate Atlantic activity significantly WHEN the PDO/ATC cycles favor above average activity in the Atlantic, ESPECIALLY if the QBO is west.

[USAwx1]

the NAO is a pretty good indicator (in addition to warm atlantic SSTA) of the ATC cycle, notice it was MAINLY negative from the late 40s through the 70s.

[Stormsfury]

Whoa ... finally found the new link for the EQ PAC Depth Anomalies and this is not what I expected to see ...



SF

[Anonymous]

One of the things that I'd like to know is just what the state of the ATL thermaline circulation was in 1969 ... we all know it's been ABV normal since 1995, and that will continue for many years to come. ALSO, notice that we're possibly seeing the signs of a warm phase PDO ...

[Anonymous]

Better for trends imo

[Anonymous]

The warming trend probably has a lot to do with the long stretch of -SOI anomalies we had not too long ago. The - MJO probably contributed to KW formation too....and we may just now be beginning to see the effects. But overall, I still see a near neutral ENSO pattern taking shape this summer, with only minor fluctuations.

[cycloneye]

Yes looking at trends month after month is the best way to follow what ENSO is doing and not look at daily data.By the way good information from all who haved replied here.

[Anonymous]

the NAO is a pretty good indicator (in addition to warm atlantic SSTA) of the ATC cycle, notice it was MAINLY negative from the late 40s through the 70s.

Yep...the AO and NAO help explain much of the ATC variations we see. I do think we will see a more positive NAO this year, but SSTs are still expected to be generally above average. Long range NAO predictions are never too certain anyway.

[USAwx1]

if we zoom out a little more on your graphic, notice the warm water over the Northern and equatorial Atlantic in 1969, tell tale sign of a strong ATC (see the graphics from my previous post for comparison puropses w/ NAO cycle)

[Stormsfury]

The warming trend probably has a lot to do with the long stretch of -SOI anomalies we had not too long ago. The - MJO probably contributed to KW formation too....and we may just now be beginning to see the effects. But overall, I still see a near neutral ENSO pattern taking shape this summer, with only minor fluctuations.

I thought that might have been from a Kelvin Wave but I hadn't had much time to look into that lately (plus I might have lost my link somehow in the changeover to this PC) ...

SF