Hurricane Hinker's First Annual Hurricane Predictions!

[Hurricanehink]

Cue music....
OK! Since Floydbuster wants us to do our predictions for the season, here they are.

Tropical Storm Alex
June 28-July 2
Max Strength: 55
Landfall- Pensacola Florida (55)
Alex forms forms from a Tropical Wave interacting with an upper level low in the Caribbean. The low gradually reaches the surface, and on he 28th, enough persistant convection is there to classify it as Tropical Depression 1. Forming off the coast of Nicuragua, the storm quickly moves over land, but it emerges in the Gulf of Honduras on the 29th. It quickly becomes Alex, but again goes over land on the 30th. Heavy rain drenches the Yucutan Peninsula as T.D. Alex progresses through. A high pressure system over the North West Gulf brings Alex through the middle of the Gulf, but as it moves eastward, so does Alex. On the 2nd of July, Alex reaches its peak of 55 M.P.H. right before it hits Pensacola Florida. The storm rapidly dissipates, but the renmants are tracked for another 2 days.

Hurricane Bonnie
July 13-14 18-26
Max Strength- 125
Landfall- Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (115)
An early season Cape Verde Storm develops in the Eastern Atlantic on the 13th of July. The Tropical Depression moves rapidly westward, thus having difficulty holding a center. Late on the 14th, it becomes an open wave. It approaches the islands, but finally slows down enough on the 18th to become a depression again. Bonnie soon is named as it moves through Antigua and St. Kitts. Bringing heavy rain to the Islands, but no deaths, it moves onward towards the United States. A very warm area of water is right in Bonnie's path, as well as little shear and great outflow aloft. Rapid intensification is forecasted, and so it happens. It becomes a hurricane on the 20th, and a major hurricane on the 21st. It breifly threatens the Bahamas, but Bonnie moves northwest enough to miss them. It continues to strengthen to 125 M.P.H. winds, when it finally weakens a little before landfall. It hits South Carolina on the 23rd as a major hurricane, the first M.H. U.S. landfall since Fran 8 years ago. It continues northwestward, but it moves more northward, and northeastward, eventually asorbed by a front. Bonnie is retired due to the heavy destruction over the Carolinas, but a relatively low death toll; 6.

Subtropical Storm Charley
July 21st-23rd
Max Strength- 50
On the 19th, as Bonnie was moving through the Islands, a stalled upper low was located southwest of the Azores, and a small Tropical system was developing inside. By the 21st, some tropical characteristics are evident, and it becomes a Subtropical Storm; Charley. It moves very little, and on the 23rd, after reaching its peak of 50, dissipates due to another tropical low. Note: Fish Storm

Tropical Storm Danielle
August 8-11
Max Strength- 70
The Intertropical Convergent Zone it very active in the first week of August, and one such burst of activity retains some organization. It moves northward, an unusual direction for a wave, and becomes a depression on the 8th. Danielle soon becomes a tropical storm, and on the 10th, it reaches its peak of 70. Unfavorable conditions soon come, due to shear, and Danielle rapidly dissipates 120 miles south of Jamaica.

Hurricane Earl
August 23-September 5
Max Strength- 145
The Tropical Atlantic again becomes active as Tropical Depressions 5 and 6 form within 6 hours of each other, and within 500 miles of each other. The furthermost west one, 5, becomes Earl on the 23rd of August, and a hurricane 6 hours after that. Earl continues to rapidly intensify, approaching major hurricane status on the 25th. However, the intensification haults, and it begins to weaken, very unexpectedly. Bypassing the islands by moving northwestward, Earl maintains hurricane strength, hovering between category one and two between the 27th and the 30th. Finally, as if a bad luck omen was destroyed, Earl rapidly strengthens again, this time making it to 145 M.P.H. on the 1st. It maintains its category 4 strengthfor the next 3 days, a rather long time. It safely moves east of Bermuda, and moves towards cooler water. It all comes downhill from there, with Earl becoming extratropical on the 6th.

Tropical Depression 6
August 23-27
Right when Earl became a storm, T.D. 6 is spinning some 500 miles behind it. It interacts with Earl via Fujiwhara Effect, and it is absorbed by Earl on the 27th.

Tropical Storm Frances
September 4-9
Max Winds- 65
Landfall: Morehead City (60), Nags Head (65), Hampton Bay, New York (40), New London, Connecticut (35)
All of America is enjoying their Labor Day weekend, but a tropical storm rapidly develops east of Florida. Developing from a tropical wave, Frances rapidly spins up. Moving almost parallel to the coast, Frances brings heavy rain along Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. On the 6th, it moves northward through the Outer Banks. It strenghens more in the warm Palmico Sound, and heads to the Atlantic Ocean near Nags Head. It stays near the coast, hitting Long Island as a much weaker storm. It becomes a Tropical Depression as it hits Connecticut, and it dissipates over land. For the 2nd year in a row, the East Coast has a rainy labor day.

Hurricane Gaston
September 7-13
Max Strength- 75
Landfall: Cape Canaveral, Florida (30), Apalachicola, Florida (75)
A weak tropical depression forms 20 miles due east of Cape Canaveral on the 7th of September due to a tropical wave. This moves slowly westward, bringing heavy rain for the Florida Peninsula. It enters the Gulf of Mexico, and stalls. It becomes a tropical storm on the 11th, and a hurricane on the 13th. A front sweeps through the area, bringing Gaston, and its moisture, northeastward. It becomes extratropical later that day over Georgia. The extratropical low can be traced to France where it causes heavy rain and winds.

Tropical Storm Hermine
September 10-14
Max Strength- 65
Unlike its 1998 counterpart, Helene forms in the deep tropical Atlantic ahead of Ivan. It strengthens, and weakens, from the 10th to the 14th, and it dies over the islands.

Hurricane Ivan
September 11-22
Max Strength- 135
Landfalls: Vero Beach (135), Biloxi Mississippi (110).
Forming from an extremely organized tropical wave, Ivan moves off the coast of Africa as a tropical depression. It holds together, and becomes a storm on the 13th. Ivan moves more west-northwesterly than Helene, becoming a hurricane on the 16th, 300 miles east of St. John's. It becomes a major hurricane on the 18th as it approaches the Eastern Bahamas. In the day before landfall of Florida, Ivan becomes a 135 M.P.H. Hurricane, sweeping through the Bahamas, and moving through Vero Beach, Florida. Ivan is a very fast mover, so the damage was less than expected. However, it is still great, causing 30 deaths. It weakens to 100 M.P.H. strength, and slowly gains strength as it approaches its final destination: Biloxi Mississippi. It hits there on the 21st, and dissipates on the 22nd.

Hurricane Jeanne
September 28-October 4
Max Strength- 115
Landfall- Freeport Texas (105)
Jeanne forms from a Tropical Wave just off the east coast of the Yucutan Peninsula, near Cancun. It stays as a Tropical Depression as it moves through Mexico. Once it reaches the warm Bay of Campeche, Jeanne soon forms, on the 30th. Jeanne soon becomes a hurricane, on the 1st. It moves northwest through the Gulf, approaching Texas. It beomces a cateory 3 hurricane on the 3rd, but weakens to cat. 2 right before landfall. Nonetheless, damage is still heavy, and Jeanne is retired.

Tropical Storm Karl
October 18-21
Max Strength- 65
Landfall- Yarmouth, Nova Scotia
Karl begins as a Subtropical Storm, but it eventually becomes Tropical. An upper level low is evident on the 15th east of Bermuda, but it becomes Tropical in nature. On the 18th, it is Subtropical Depression 12. It becomes Tropical Storm Karl on the 19th, and moves more to the northwest. A front moves it more towards the north, but it still holds together, and it hits the southwestern part of Nova Scotia.

Hurricane Lisa
October 31-November 7
Max Strength-85
A very late season Cape Verde storm forms on Halloween just east of the Islands. Moving through the Caribbean, conditions are semi-favorable for development, and Lisa is born on the 2nd of November. It becomes a hurricane on the 4th, but upper level winds kill it off on the 7th, 350 miles east of Nicuragua.

Tropical Storm Matthew
November 17-21
Max Strength- 65
A subtropical storm forms on the 17th of November 300 miles east of Bermuda in response to an old front. It eventually becomes more tropical in nature, and on the 19th, it becomes Matthew. It breifly looks like it would gain hurricane strength, but on the 21st, after a peak of 65, Matthew is destroyed by another front.

Hurricane Nicole
December 20-31
Max Strength- 75
A large gyre of winds and convection in the upper atmosphere gradually allows tropical development beneath. This is due to a Frontal low moving off the United States on the 13th of December, causing early snow. Nicole, starting on the 20th, strenghens in this unusual environment, threatening Bermuda. It hits the island on the 24th as a newly born hurricaned, bringing heavy rain, but little damage, and swiftly moves out to sea. It becomes extratropical on the 27th, and dies just before the new year.

Totals:
Tropical Depressions: 15
Tropical Storms: 14
Hurricanes: 7
Major Hurricanes: 4
Landfalling U.S. Storms: 6
Landfalling U.S. Hurricanes: 4
Landfalling Major Hurricanes: 2

[HURAKAN]

Very good, but for a fairy tale, sorry don't get mad at me. Also, is not Helene, is Hermine. Helene was used in 2000 and will be used again in 2006.



SANDY DELGADO

[Anonymous]

Good forecast.

[Hurricanehink]

Woops, I got them wrong. Helene <I>was</I> in 2000, but I always get them screwed up.

[Anonymous]

Good forecast. So which ones get retired?

[Hurricanehink]

Bonnie, Ivan, and Karl are replaced with Britney, Igor, and Kennet... respectively.

[Anonymous]

Watch Ivan be bad. Then Irene, then Isaac, ect.