Carib Storm

#21 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 10:48 am

newt3 wrote:My friends on the visible loop, that thing is looking better and better. I'm no expert, but it's got a definite twist going on there. Our local met last night said it's to be watched early next week as it enters the gulf and that if the shear lessened, that all bet's were off on this thing. Very interesting anyway.

Where do you live and what met said that?
Thanks! :?:

bbadon · #22 Postby **bbadon** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 10:56 am

A local met here in SW Louisiana said the same thing. Infact here is a piece from the Lake Charles NWS discussion this morning. They don't mention any particular system, however if there were a system in the gulf it could mean a lot for motion.

"BY WED...A POSSIBLE TROF/CUT OFF LOW MAY SET UP OVER TX.

AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...WILL OPEN THE GULF RIGHT OVER

SE TX/LA THROUGH THU. SHOWED A BIT OF AND INCREASE IN POPS AND SKY

COVER FOR THAT TIME PERIOD."

bbadon · #23 Postby **bbadon** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 10:58 am

Also most of what I see is associated with the ULL. However it would not be the first time a surface reflection would develop from a system like this.

#24 Postby **MGC** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:07 am

This is clearly an trough interacting with an ULL. Although impressive on the sat loop, development if any is remote....MGC

#25 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:11 am

ABNT20 KNHC 101533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

#26 Postby **Stormcenter** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 11:31 am

vbhoutex wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 101533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

If they are mentioning it then it has to mean something. I say it has a 30% chance of becoming something. I gave it a 0% percent chance yesterday so that is a significant increase.

Yankeegirl · #27 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 12:30 pm

Well I just watched my local met, and he talked about it, but didnt seem very concerned about it... The next real chance of rain here is next Wednesday.. Ya think that might be something tropical??

#28 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 1:20 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 101533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

If they are mentioning it then it has to mean something. I say it has a 30% chance of becoming something. I gave it a 0% percent chance yesterday so that is a significant increase.

It is an area of interest to many because of what it is looking like. What they are stating is that they do see it and there is not a likelihood of tropical development anytime soon with this particular system. Until the ULL that is enhancing the convection moves away there is little chance of tropical development occurring.

Stormsfury · #29 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 1:22 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 101533
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 10 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER PASCH

If they are mentioning it then it has to mean something. I say it has a 30% chance of becoming something. I gave it a 0% percent chance yesterday so that is a significant increase.

The meaning ... tropical cyclone formation is not likely ...

SF

ColdFront77 · #30 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 2:05 pm

Florida's afternoon and evening thunderstorms have reversed direction as expected as a high basically moved across the peninsula.

Storms were moving generally northwestward the last several days compared to this afternoon's easterly movement.

newt3 · #31 Postby **newt3** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:22 pm

Stormcenter, I live in Apalachicola,FL in the panhandle. The met i was referring to is Jason Kelly WJHG put of Panama City, Fl. I just watched the Tropical Update on TWC and was shocked at how they just zip right on thru the tropical update. They used to show climatology, points of origin, and even talk a little about anything that resembled a cloud in the tropical Atlantic, today they spent a total of 20 seconds, I know because I timed it. I know there was another thread on this but thought I'd bring it up again, it was pitiful

Rainband · #32 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:23 pm

I agree the weather channel has gone so down hill

stormie_skies · #33 Postby **stormie_skies** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:25 pm

That bothers me too ~ one would think they could squeeze out a few minutes for tropical weather at least, given they do nothing but weather 24/7

#34 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 3:34 pm

Rainband wrote:I agree the weather channel has gone so down hill (

Also agree.

Sandy Delgado

ColdFront77 · #35 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 4:16 pm

newt3 wrote:Stormcenter, I live in Apalachicola,FL in the panhandle. The met i was referring to is Jason Kelly WJHG put of Panama City, Fl. I just watched the Tropical Update on TWC and was shocked at how they just zip right on thru the tropical update. They used to show climatology, points of origin, and even talk a little about anything that resembled a cloud in the tropical Atlantic, today they spent a total of 20 seconds, I know because I timed it. I know there was another thread on this but thought I'd bring it up again, it was pitiful

I agree with the overall changes at TWC being downhill since their coverage of the weather in the 1980's into the early 1990's.

However, yesterday, Jeff Morrow and Jeanetta Jone showed the Points of Origin map and principle storm tracks for the month of June yesterday afternoon. I believe I saw it earlier in the week, too.

As for them going through the Tropical Update in under a minute. Yesterday there was severe weather occurring the eastern United States which is obviously more important than the tropical on Wednesday, June 9th.

Lindaloo · #36 Postby **Lindaloo** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 4:28 pm

newt3 wrote:Stormcenter, I live in Apalachicola,FL in the panhandle. The met i was referring to is Jason Kelly WJHG put of Panama City, Fl. I just watched the Tropical Update on TWC and was shocked at how they just zip right on thru the tropical update. They used to show climatology, points of origin, and even talk a little about anything that resembled a cloud in the tropical Atlantic, today they spent a total of 20 seconds, I know because I timed it. I know there was another thread on this but thought I'd bring it up again, it was pitiful

Hi newt, Jason is a member here. Hopefully he will post his thinking about this soon.

Rainband · #37 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 4:31 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Florida's afternoon and evening thunderstorms have reversed direction as expected as a high basically moved across the peninsula.

Storms were moving generally northwestward the last several days compared to this afternoon's easterly movement.

I agree, if it moves north more rain for florida and the north GC :wink:

newt3 · #38 Postby **newt3** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 6:34 pm

Cool Lindaloo, Jason does an outstanding job there in Panama City, very informative, and makes sense out of the weather picture when most of us don't understand it. Hope he will post soon.

#39 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 7:15 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Florida's afternoon and evening thunderstorms have reversed direction as expected as a high basically moved across the peninsula.

Storms were moving generally northwestward the last several days compared to this afternoon's easterly movement.

And that high as well as the Western periphery of the Bermuda high is what will help pull the mess in the Carribean NNW and N, especially if the TUTT low moves West as progged.

Rainband · #40 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Jun 10, 2004 7:26 pm

vbhoutex wrote:And that high as well as the Western periphery of the Bermuda high is what will help pull the mess in the Carribean NNW and N, especially if the TUTT low moves West as progged.

Isn't the bremuda high forecast to shift east?? Maybe thats what the GFS sees :lol:

Even if it is the GFS. :lol:

Carib Storm

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