Potential for Carribean/Gulf storm increasing...

[Stormcenter]

The POINT is ... the GFS is only ONE MODEL, and it's continuing to experience gridscale convective feedbacks errors ... NOT ONE OTHER MODEL even REMOTELY develops a feature like the GFS does ... NOT ONE. IF the ULL begins to depart, the system loses its enhancement through divergent shear and the system will basically go POOF ... just like yesterday's MCV ... This is a dynamically driven MCV, and based on MR guidance, aside from increasing moisture yet again somewhere along the GOM coast, the system simply will not have enough time to consolidate "tropically speaking".

I think it could be Alex in the making..

It's beginning to look more impressive..

That's cool, thanks for the explanantion.


The upper system is ... strong northerly winds aloft are carving out quite a sharp trough in the GOM/NW Caribbean and enhancing the convection further ... there's a very narrow band of s/w ridging between where yesterday's MCV was just off the coast of Mexico, and the current upper low which is beginning to wrap up ... furthermore, the dry air is enhancing the convection, much like a dryline would ...

Two loops for your viewing pleasure
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... vjava.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

SF

What's your point? No one is saying that this is a tropical system at the moment. All I'm saying that the potential is there not that it IS going to definitely develop into something.

[USAwx1]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

You are Acting like EVERY tropical disturbance, be it an MCV or convection induced by an upper level system is your ONLY hope for tropical development in the ENTIRE BASIN the ENTIRE season. IT ISN'T FACT. Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Alot needs to happen before development can occur w/ that system. and While NOTHING is impossible, it isn't likely either.

Just take things one at a time, and let the early season run its course. Things will get more active before you know it.

[cycloneye]

And also June and July are normally slow months for tropical development.It may be boring for some people to look at blobs and then see them fall apart but time will come later in the season and we will have plenty to talk about and to track.

[Derecho]

At this moment we just have a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low. What I see interesting is that the convection have been persistant over the last 24 hours.

Actually per the 2PM TWD the wave is now west of the upper low, (and lost all convection of its own) and all of the convection is generated by the upper low.

Also, the persistence of convection is really, really overrated as some sort of tropical development criteria. Really unfavorable upper-level conditions can create convection like this that lasts 2-3 days, but has no chance of actual tropical development.

[Wnghs2007]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W S OF 24N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
THE WAVE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS CONVECTION AS IT MOVED INTO THE WESTERLY PORTION OF AN UPPER LOW... LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ALOFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

This is exactly what david said.

Also, why do all of yall keep posting images of the gulf of mexico and not the carribean. You can not see the whole system. If you would post a image of the whole system you would see there is clearly no rotation but of that of the ULL.

Here take a look at this for example

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Put it on 30 image loop and click in the direct center between the two weakening thunderstorm masses. And you will see clearly not even an MLC.

So I would not say anywhere in the near future this developing. Also, when it gets to the East of the ULL or to the West of the ULL the shear is still tremendous. I would not even bet a cent on this storm to develop into anything more than a tropical wave or at most a disturbance.

Just my 2 cents!

Wnghs2007 (KC)

[Stormcenter]

Ah come you guys let's quit all the "fancy" technical talk as
to why something won't develop out of the mess in the Carribean.
The bottom line is we have nothing right now and it's still
only early June. So what's wrong with getting a little exciting
at the remote possibility something may develop down line
in the GOM? I say nothing is wrong with that. There is nothing
else to post about anyway.

[Lindaloo]

Ah come you guys let's quit all the "fancy" technical talk as
to why something won't develop out of the mess in the Carribean.
The bottom line is we have nothing right now and it's still
only early June. So what's wrong with getting a little exciting
at the remote possibility something may develop down line
in the GOM? I say nothing is wrong with that. There is nothing
else to post about anyway.

Nothing wrong with it, however, reading the analysis put out there by our forecasters makes for good debate. Let's not forget that!

[Rainband]

Three letters GFS

[USAwx1]

Ah come you guys let's quit all the "fancy" technical talk as
to why something won't develop out of the mess in the Carribean.
The bottom line is we have nothing right now and it's still
only early June. So what's wrong with getting a little exciting
at the remote possibility something may develop down line
in the GOM? I say nothing is wrong with that. There is nothing
else to post about anyway.

Don't make something out of nothing b/c there is "nothing else to post about anyway"

when you start doing that, everyone gets in an uproar for no reason. Why cause panic and lead others on to believe that something has a chance when in all likelihood it doesn't.

We don't need the extra spin.

[chadtm80]

Ah come you guys let's quit all the "fancy" technical talk as
to why something won't develop out of the mess in the Carribean.
The bottom line is we have nothing right now and it's still
only early June. So what's wrong with getting a little exciting
at the remote possibility something may develop down line
in the GOM? I say nothing is wrong with that. There is nothing
else to post about anyway.

Nothing wrong about posting it... But our "pro's" are here to teach us about developement.. So when they talk I suggest everyone listens.. I know I do

But I know what your talking about, This time of year we ALL get excited

[USAwx1]

Three letters GFS

hey ... watch your language ... LOL

[Lindaloo]

Don't make something out of nothing b/c there is "nothing else to post about anyway"

when you start doing that, everyone gets in an uproar for no reason. Why cause panic and lead others on to believe that something has a chance when in all likelihood it doesn't.

We don't need the extra spin.

EXACTLY!!!

[Steve]

As far as the SW Caribbean, there's another wave waiting to pile into that energy, so I will maintain that nothing should be either favored or discounted before the weekend. Things need to simplify and they may or they may not.

Steve

[Rainband]

hey ... watch your language ... LOL

[Brent]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

You are Acting like EVERY tropical disturbance, be it an MCV or convection induced by an upper level system is your ONLY hope for tropical development in the ENTIRE BASIN the ENTIRE season. IT ISN'T FACT. Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Alot needs to happen before development can occur w/ that system. and While NOTHING is impossible, it isn't likely either.

Just take things one at a time, and let the early season run its course. Things will get more active before you know it.

Anyway... we'll be in Fort Walton Beach Sunday-Wednesday. I noticed the NWS has 50% POPS Sunday and Monday with lesser chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Any other opinions on how great the rain chances will be down there?

[Brent]

Three letters GFS

[GalvestonDuck]

OK -- CALM DOWN EVERYONE

You are Acting like EVERY tropical disturbance, be it an MCV or convection induced by an upper level system is your ONLY hope for tropical development in the ENTIRE BASIN the ENTIRE season. IT ISN'T FACT. Not every area of disturbed wx is going to become ALEX.

Alot needs to happen before development can occur w/ that system. and While NOTHING is impossible, it isn't likely either.

Just take things one at a time, and let the early season run its course. Things will get more active before you know it.

You gotta admit though -- by watching and learning what DOESN'T develop and why it doesn't also teaches us about what DOES form and why.

[ColdFront77]

There is no reason why we shouldn't be talking about this system. It exists and it is there for us to talk about.

[Rainband]

I agree Shawn

[fwbbreeze]

Hey Brent,
Just your average afternoon showers and T-storms down this way in FWB. Now, if the moisture in the carrib gets drawn northward things could change by late in the weekend. Enjoy your stay!

fwbbreeze