CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE...BUT DID CHOOSE TO MENTION SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NE CWA WHERE MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BETTER. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IS GOING TO BE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FORECAST PROBLEM
INVOLVING THE MOVEMENT OF A TUTT LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
YUCATAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED TO ITS EAST IN THE NW CARIBBEAN.
12Z GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE
UPPER LOW NW INTO THE WESTERN GULF. BELIEVE THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE
THE TYPICAL SUBSIDENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW SUN-TUE.
0Z GFS WAS MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH BY MID WEEK WHICH WOULD HAVE PUT THE CWA ON THE WETTER SIDE.
HOWEVER...12Z GFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z UKMET WITH KEEPING
THE UPPER WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE IT APPEARS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE PULLED UP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE UPPER
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO HINT AT SURFACE
LOW FORMING AND MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE PROGGED UPPER PATTERN WOULD PUSH BEST
MOISTURE INTO THE SERN US. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CHANCE POP
GOING FOR WEDNESDAY OVER THE EAST FOR CONSISTENCY...BUT NEXT SHIFT
MAY CONSIDER LOWERING THIS IF THE NEXT ROUND OF MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW UPPER THE WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. OTHERWISE WENT A
LITTLE WARMER THAN THE MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO MARINE CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 76 90 77 91 / 05 20 05 10
VICTORIA 75 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 20
LAREDO 77 99 78 101 /10 10 10 05
ALICE 75 95 76 94 / 10 10 10 10
ROCKPORT 77 88 77 88 / 10 10 10 10
COTULLA 74 95 75 97 / 10 10 10 05
Could be intresting next week
