Dr. Neil Frank Said

[TexasSam]

"could be a little supprise down here off the coast of Brownsville."

[Josephine96]

I'm guessing that means he thinks something could develop soon?

[crazy4disney]

When Dr. Neil says things like that, I stop and listen. Did he elaborate at all?

-gina-

[Steve]

Local guys here noted that some of the models have begun to hint at Western Gulf Development, but if not, tons of tropical moisture is due in the N Gulf Sunday PM - Monday.

Steve

[MWatkins]

Whelp...Neil Frank...other than maybe John Hope (God rest his soul...I cried...for a long time...when John Hope passed away...and I'm not afraid to admit that) is probably the forecaster I respect the most. Neil pushed hurricane safety hard...even during the quiet years...and is/was as passionate about hurricanes as I have ever seen or known.

I wish Neil would come to FL and supplant the myriad of clowns we have on TV down here.

You are very lucky to have him there in TX. I would listen to whatever he says.

MW

[PTrackerLA]

I respect Dr. Neil alot too, I wonder what he is thinking? Our met hinted at possible development but regardless he feels it could get very wet next week.

[TexasSam]

In all truth that was all he said....

[wxman57]

If there is going to be any "surprise", it'l be off the MS/AL (and maybe SE LA coast) coasts, not th TX coast. The wave continues to interact with the upper low. Convection is flaring up now, but it hasn't persisted for any length of time.

[Dean4Storms]

If there is going to be any "surprise", it'l be off the MS/AL (and maybe SE LA coast) coasts, not th TX coast. The wave continues to interact with the upper low. Convection is flaring up now, but it hasn't persisted for any length of time.

Exactly, don't know where he's getting the idea of it being off the coast of Brownsville unless he considers 600 miles east of Brownsville off the coast which would be VERY accurate!

[Dave C]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
Seems upper-low is further west of convection and the moisture content in the area is increasing. Now, as Wxman 57 just posted, let's see if it persists.

[Fire in the Sky]

It seems like all the predictions in the GOM in the past few summers have been all over the board until late in the process. It's early in the season, and yes the meteorology suggest that any storm would be more apt to hit AL/MS.. but until it fully develops and starts traveling in the open waters, it seems to me there are alot of possibilties. I claim no fame on forecasting (not even close), but I've been watching the GOM for several summers now, and it sometimes gets as unpredictable as a New England spring day!
Have a great one.
Mark

[bevgo]

The system bearing down on the GOM is interesting to watch and discuss. Will it develop? In my non-professional opinion i doubt it since it is so early. If it does develop into something I do hope it will not be serious. It sure is nice to have a system to look at this early. I guess we can look at is as a warm-up for the heart of the season. I feel sure we will have many areas of disturbed weather to watch and argue over during this season. Happing tracking!

[MGC]

There is a small chance something will come of this system. I've seen surface lows form in close to ULL but it is the exception. Moisture does seem to be destined for northern GOM coast in a couple of days.....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Mark, that is an understatement to say the least!! I've been watching the GOM for close to 45 yrs and it still throws me at least a couple of surprises each year.

[Steve]

>>There is a small chance something will come of this system. I've seen surface lows form in close to ULL but it is the exception. Moisture does seem to be destined for northern GOM coast in a couple of days.....MGC

Agreed. But there's more than a "small chance" of something developing (hybird type early-season storm). I've got it around 40% of something classifed (other than STDS). Whether or not anything gets classified is another story. I need to look at some of the upper air charts for the next few days (haven't done it since Wed's OOZ model runs). I've maintained here and on CFHC that it wouldn't be until the weekend period that we'd have a real indication if it might want to crank.

In any event, I'd bet there are some widespread 2"+ rainfall amounts (isolated 4-5"+) from Plaquemines Parish (toe of LA) over to about Bay County (Panama City). The kink in the ointment is if that ULL backs away quickly enough and if it cranks early on, Carl Arredondo speculated that it would be a western Gulf scenario. If it takes its time or doesn't develop, it's a Northern Gulf Coast system.

Steve

[stormcloud]

No, No, No. I work with Dr. Frank and we discussed this last night. He was talking about the upper low that the ETA had placed near Brownsville. He meant that it might throw more rain toward Houston today and Saturday. On his forecast map, he took the tropical system northward toward the middle GOM by Sunday...

[chadtm80]

Thanks for clarifying for everyone.. Why dont you go ahead and Beg him to make a few posts for us.. lol

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for clarifying for everyone.. Why dont you go ahead and Beg him to make a few posts for us.. lol

I wish he would!! However, last year at the Hurricane
conference in Houston Dr. Neil told me-"I don't do the internet".
If Stormcloud has a "way" with him and can influence him to do otherwise that would be thrilling!!!

[Johnny]

stormcloud, you're not Dan Meador are ya?

[stormcloud]

Yeah, I'm Stormcloud! I guess I better hunt for another screen name, so you guys won't know who to come after
Dr. Frank hates to type anything. That's why he doesn't even have email at the station. I'll see if he can take time to get on the board if something big is going on!