GOM Issue getting VERY interesting.

[Stormcenter]

Hmmmmmm I know nothing may come of it still but the MESS headed toward the GOM has not gone away. I gave it a 30% chance of developing yesterday. Today it's up to 50%.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[bevgo]

looks interesting. Mets here in New Orleans say we could have some very wet weather Sunday through Tuesday and possible even Wednesday. We really don't need any more wet weather right now. Maybe the system could go to Fla. and give them much needed rain.

It would be nice if we had the ability to steer a storm to the place that needs the rain but I guess then we would be expected to steer all storms and some would complain because either they felt someone was playing favorites

[Lindaloo]

I agree bev.

[Anonymous]

Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...


IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT

The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.

The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.

It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.

Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.

[zoeyann]

actually bev i kind of want the rain, but that deluge that came through new orleans mostly missed me on the coast. it kind of funny the sun was frying me over here but i drove into that mess going toward the airport. but certainly parts of Florida need it more than we do.

[Steve]

Linda,

Looks like you guys over in Eastern Mississippi might get a shot at some significant rainfall early next week. I checked out Joe B. a couple of minutes ago and he thinks if it goes, it's going to be one of those storms that is heavily weighted with an eastern bias.

His words "Well first of all in June its almost impossible to have a pure tropical development. We always have some kind of cold low shearing off. And I emphasize the change of pattern, not pattern, is the key. If something is growing in the face of shear, and the shear relaxes, they it should continue to grow. But look, this fits with the kind of situation that often develops and east quad weighted storm, the Allison or Bill type storm ( 50 miles west of the center, you wonder what the problem is). I will be issuing updates, and if we get an actual low level center once this gets past the Yucatan, chances are well will have a system that causes heavy rains with tropical storm force winds in its east side, affecting the central gulf coast early next week."
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stock up on some cold beer and cigarettes if you are so inclined, or keep the coffee handy. This doesn't look like anything major, but what weather freak doesn't mind tropical storm conditions every now and again?

Steve

[Lindaloo]

I hope so Steve. We went the whole month of May without any rain. June has brought us some, but not much. We do need the rain, but so does Florida.

[USAwx1]

AWESOME post.

Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...


IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT

The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.

The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.

It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.

Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.

[chadtm80]

AWESOME post.

Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south...


IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT

The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere.

The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast.

It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast.

Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south.

Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.

ah, its alright I guess hehehe j/k.. Great outlook as always from the iwic


P.S. Look in this months up coming newsletter for more GREAT things from the IWIC!!!

[vbhoutex]

Aw Chad you aren't letting THEM contribute to our newsletter are you?? J/K Ow!! Quit throwing things!!! OW!! Looking forward to their contributions.

Very thorough and well written analysis Rob!!!

[Lindaloo]

Dang Chad, always giving away newsletter secrets. LOL!!

[Brent]

We're going to be in Fort Walton Beach Sunday-Wednesday. It better not bother us.

[chadtm80]

Dang Chad, always giving away newsletter secrets. LOL!!

It was a Promo.. LOL

[PTrackerLA]

We're going to be in Fort Walton Beach Sunday-Wednesday. It better not bother us.

Might not be the best beach weather...

[FlammingHurricane]

Pensacola beach florida here so could that thing in the gom form into something.? we need the rain so bad here in pensacola fl.

flamming hurricane

[vbhoutex]

Pensacola beach florida here so could that thing in the gom form into something.? we need the rain so bad here in pensacola fl.

flamming hurricane

You could easily get a good rain event out of it. Whether it will actually form into anything other than a rain event moving on shore is still very questionable.

[Brent]

Pensacola beach florida here so could that thing in the gom form into something.? we need the rain so bad here in pensacola fl.

flamming hurricane

I don't think it'll develop into much(weak TS at best), but either way, it's going to be a big rainmaker IMO.

[Lindaloo]

Dang Chad, always giving away newsletter secrets. LOL!!

It was a Promo.. LOL

LMAO!!

[Dean4Storms]

I can't see this GOM system becoming much more than a possible weak TS if that either. The only fly in the ointment would be if the ULL moves far enough west to allow the ridging in over the top of the surface low to it's east. That will be the only way for this system to develop into a TC and if there is enough of this separation it could strengthen quickly before landfall. I won't put too much stock into the southerly shear yet as the system would be moving in the direction with it and we have yet to see just how much shear will develop in advance of the trough.

As with every Tropical disturbance, we will have to watch it. The convection has become more consistant which is a first for any potential development.

[Rainband]

Looks like it isn't very organized right now