Meet Alex

[Stormcenter]

Folks I may be wrong but I THINK we are looking at the formation of Alex in this visible loop .

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormsfury]

Still no SFC low ... low-level clouds over the Yucatan are moving NW ...

SF

[senorpepr]

I'm still not impressed with this system, but definately is worth watching. We'll see what happens when it gets into the GOM

[Brent]

It's not Alex or a TD, yet anyway. I'm not ruling out development but I still don't give it that good of a chance.

[Stormcenter]

I give it 60% chance of developing.

[Stormsfury]

WV imagery indicate that another (and so far a DRY) mid/upper level low has formed east of the TX/MX border in the Western GOM ... although, this might induce a small s/w ridge ... right now, this actually look more like a NW-SE inverted trough at the mid-levels ... notice the high clouds swinging towards the WNW across Southern Alabama and Georgia, or a broad channeling towards Louisiana at the current time.

And as if we could get conditions to become a little more conducive for anything, another shortwave disturbance and associated trough is progged to sweep on through, and disrupt things yet again ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[senorpepr]

Good analysis SF.

[ColdFront77]

The circiulation over the western Gulf of Mexico on the water vapor loop is an added indication of a southwest to northeast flow developing, actually being enhanced with the high pressure at the surface, mid and upper level moving eastward from the Gulf.

For whatever it's worth the barometric pressure across my area is just below and just above 30.00".

[lilbump3000]

I just do not see a florida panhandle landfall with this sytem like most people think.

Looking at the water vapor, if that spinning near florida which is the high stays like it is, i see more of an central louisiana landfall.

Now i looked at several of my local weathermen and most of them is going with the GFS model on here taking it into the flordia panhandle. One of them also showed the ETA model which will take it right into the new orleans area.

As i can see if that high does not weaken in the northeastern gulf, im going with the ETA model which takes the system into louisiana.

[Guest]

WV imagery indicate that another (and so far a DRY) mid/upper level low has formed east of the TX/MX border in the Western GOM ... although, this might induce a small s/w ridge ... right now, this actually look more like a NW-SE inverted trough at the mid-levels ... notice the high clouds swinging towards the WNW across Southern Alabama and Georgia, or a broad channeling towards Louisiana at the current time.

And as if we could get conditions to become a little more conducive for anything, another shortwave disturbance and associated trough is progged to sweep on through, and disrupt things yet again ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Try having a look at the link below SF which clearly shows a nice spin with this system to the se of that image you posted. I see what your talking about off the TX/MX coast which will help determin the outcome of everything imo. I still think this system has a good chance of further development to atleast a depression if not a named system if it can hold together overnight by tomorrow afternoon sometime.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't that upper low in the BOC help to sort of pinwheel this thing toward the TX/LA coast and then with the trough coming down steer it more NW? I'm gonna go out on a limb here, I think we could have a depression by tomorrow night.

[Stormsfury]

WV imagery indicate that another (and so far a DRY) mid/upper level low has formed east of the TX/MX border in the Western GOM ... although, this might induce a small s/w ridge ... right now, this actually look more like a NW-SE inverted trough at the mid-levels ... notice the high clouds swinging towards the WNW across Southern Alabama and Georgia, or a broad channeling towards Louisiana at the current time.

And as if we could get conditions to become a little more conducive for anything, another shortwave disturbance and associated trough is progged to sweep on through, and disrupt things yet again ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Try having a look at the link below SF which clearly shows a nice spin with this system to the se of that image you posted. I see what your talking about off the TX/MX coast which will help determin the outcome of everything imo. I still think this system has a good chance of further development to atleast a depression if not a named system if it can hold together overnight by tomorrow afternoon sometime.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

On the above post (sorry I didn't provide the link ... look at the LL surface flow across the Yucatan and NW of that across the Western GOM ... no low-level clouds are currently moving towards the East ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Better looking view ... and covered the entire region ... VIS and WV ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Still, this is all mid/upper circulation ... which all of the globals retain the 500mb low. The 12z CMC maintains the 500mb vorticity signature through 72 hours and beyond, and the 18z GFS has significantly backed off ... and maintains a 500mb circ. through the next 96 hours... Sorry, KOW ... I don't agree about the chances of tropical development at this time ... I just don't see the same things I have seen with past transitional systems that would indicate this will have a chance tropically speaking ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Wouldn't that upper low in the BOC help to sort of pinwheel this thing toward the TX/LA coast and then with the trough coming down steer it more NW? I'm gonna go out on a limb here, I think we could have a depression by tomorrow night.

Another s/w trough is going to swing down from the Western States later in the period, and by next Sunday/Monday is progged to be in the position to swing the area towards the north and eventually NE ... if I told the atmosphere to freeze in a position for the latest progs, the best area of disturbed weather would likely cross the MS/AL coast ...

SF

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't that upper low in the BOC help to sort of pinwheel this thing toward the TX/LA coast and then with the trough coming down steer it more NW? I'm gonna go out on a limb here, I think we could have a depression by tomorrow night.

Another s/w trough is going to swing down from the Western States later in the period, and by next Sunday/Monday is progged to be in the position to swing the area towards the north and eventually NE ... if I told the atmosphere to freeze in a position for the latest progs, the best area of disturbed weather would likely cross the MS/AL coast ...

SF

Oops I meant to say steered to the NE instead of NW. Anyways, it might be a stretch but I think I see first signs of low level inflow into this system over the Yucatan. We'll see what tomorrow brings...

[Dean4Storms]

I agree Stormsfury, currently there is no low at the surface, but they have noted that the UL low has dropped down to 700mb and is becoming more warm core. I give this a 30% chance at this time and could go higher if the ULL begins to weaken further.

[Kennethb]

Any one out there have any links to radars in Mexico.

[Stormsfury]

http://www.passco.com/cancun.htm

[Josephine96]

That loop at the beginning made it look like this wave was beginning to get more impressive.. I'd like to see it come this way only because we here in FLA still need more rain..

I personally think it'll be a TD by Sunday..

[ColdFront77]

It is always nice to have some rain. More of a bonus from mid-October to May.

[Josephine96]

True tom.. and this is our rainy season here..