Carolina/Georgia Drought Relief?

[Dan]

Areas of Georgia and the Carolinas are in the midst of a moderate drought, but relief may very well be on the way?

Gotta love the medium range models hinting at some surface development in the gulf and coming inland on Monday. Even if we don't have tropical development, there will be a plume of deep tropical moisture being steered by the upper low on the western gulf and the western edge of the Bermuda High.

I would think at the very least, it will be a warm and very humid beginning of next week from Louisiana northeastward to North Carolina.

Many of the NWS offices in the drought stricken areas are coming on board with the increase moisture, here are some samples...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
257 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

MON...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
BRING DEEP GULF MOISTURE OVER THE SE US. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS
EAST AND FA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR. LITTLE WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
SH/TS TO DEVELOP AND WILL FORECAST CHC TO LIKELY COVERAGE. GFS WINDS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE MID DAY MON AS GULF BORN SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE DEEP SOUTH. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS GATHER WITH
THIS FEATURE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY AGREE ON IT/S
EXISTENCE...BUT DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND TIMING...WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH.

___________________________________

[Stormsfury]

Dan, the medium range progs are looking up for the region, with first, the backdoor cold front progged to swing down and even sweep through our area and bring BELOW NORMAL temperatures and a greater chance of thunderstorms this weekend, and then as the front begins to become diffuse and lift northward, another s/s trough digging out in the West/Central States is progged to swing east and sweep up the deep plume of moisture available in the GOM ...

One thing that looks VERY GOOD for the Upstate of SC, and Western NC are the wedge-like conditions progged to set up tomorrow night and Sunday, which should provide isentropic lift and upslope flow with a decent fetch of easterlies ...

Otherwise, the latest discussion from CHS downplays the low scenario the 12z GFS develops, and the 18z GFS really backs down off earlier scenarios ...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
230 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

.PUBLIC...DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT STILL EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THESE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...SO WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCE
WITH MAINLY EVENING WORDING AND THE NEXT SHIFT CAN ADJUST WORDING
AFTER REEVALUATING TRENDS LATER TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW...AS THE BACK
DOOR FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IT MAKING IT
THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE IN
THE REGION...AND A SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SC AS WELL...IT
SEEMS AS IF 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...BUT
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL CHOOSE TO IGNORE THE LOW THE
GFS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF FOR NOW AND WAIT TILL THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MODELS THEN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NW ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TO END THE WEEK OUT WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.

[Dan]

A june "wedge" setup is pretty rare, even for the western carolinas. Even being in the short term, I have concerns that the cooler might not make it as far as advertised. But I've been wrong before...

[Stormsfury]

A june "wedge" setup is pretty rare, even for the western carolinas. Even being in the short term, I have concerns that the cooler might not make it as far as advertised. But I've been wrong before...

Don't worry about it, Dan ... I've seen some pretty decent wedging events even in the summer and in June here ... some dry events, but with very refreshing results ... (highs in the upper 70's/low 80's and DP's in the 50's), and some classical diabetically enhanced ones as well, even in the CHS area back in the early 1990's ...

This was a recent weak CAD/hybrid case in 6/24/2000 ...

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~gary/cad/case_14.html

[jshetley]

A tropical system is my only hope of seeing any rain at all here. Have had only trace amounts or sprinkles at best since may 2. Storm on radar right now about 15 miles away but will miss me just to the north.