You've got to admit...

[Stormcenter]

You've got to admit this "disturbance" does look like it's trying to wind up over the Yucatan. You can see deep convection forming around a possible "center", maybe? Oh well it sure is going to make for an interesting weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[zoeyann]

i don't know what it is going to do but having something to watch has cetainly put a smile on face, practice for the rest of the season

[Stormcenter]

Now folks this is a nice looking disturbance.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[PTrackerLA]

Seems like a few on here don't want to admit it maybe in fear of busting earlier forecasts...but something is cooking.

[Dan]

You've got to admit this "disturbance" does look like it's trying to wind up over the Yucatan. You can see deep convection forming around a possible "center", maybe? Oh well it sure is going to make for an interesting weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

convection tends to consolidate around low pressure centers this time of the day, reguardless of whether the low is in the low, mid or upper levels of the atmosphere. I think that is more the case rather than an LLC trying to form.

[bahamaswx]

I admit, it certainly does appear to be pulling together, but I still doubt it will ever amount to anything.

[chadtm80]

Seems like a few on here don't want to admit it maybe in fear of busting earlier forecasts...but something is cooking.

come on. Thats not it.... There saying what they think, and the key part is they are giving reasons and data to back up there scenerios.

[senorpepr]

Seems like a few on here don't want to admit it maybe in fear of busting earlier forecasts...but something is cooking.

I wouldn't say that. I personally don't like the odds for this system. I will give it credit when looking at IR satellite, but the VIS shot isn't looking too great. Better than the invest a few weeks ago that everyone harped on, but not too exciting. Essentially the u-lvl low must weaken more before I'll be favorable toward development. Until then, I'm not buying it. We'll see tomorrow if the convection maintains over night. If that occurs, I might lean more favorable as well. Regardless, it has nothing to do with busting forecasts. Maybe I'm a bit of a conservative forecast, but tropical development is overforecast at times. We'll see tomorrow.

[ColdFront77]

The more conservative forecasters are the most accurate, because not every single system can develop.

[senorpepr]

It happens every year... each little wave automatically is granted "tropical storm status." Had the other descent waves this season had developed like many harped... we would be talking about TS Charley forming.... and it's only mid-June!

Regardless, we will have to monitor this system. It may not become a tropical cyclone, but it will be a weather producer. That is what we should focus on.

[jabber]

Most interesting thing yet this season... not to sure about formation

[ColdFront77]

Regardless, we will have to monitor this system. It may not become a tropical cyclone, but it will be a weather producer. That is what we should focus on.

Exactly right, but it unfortunately has to be intertwined in "it's only June" and "development isn't likely, but still possible."

[Josephine96]

I would say it's quite possible for the system to develop. It is that time of year even though June storms only happen every other year on average.

We are currently in a period of high tropical activity each season.. so just about anything is possible with a wave.

Plus it does seem to be growing a little healthier.. If the convection can persist and it can develop an LLC.. then the NHC may wanna send a plane out in a couple days.

[ColdFront77]

That's true, June and July climatologically has seen 65 to 70 tropical storm or hurricanes form in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

[PTrackerLA]

We'll see what happens!

[Josephine96]

60-70 storms huh Tom.. Thanks for the numbers.. which means like I said.. probably every other year since records began to be kept..

[lilbump3000]

Im surpised that there is still convection out there right now. Usually around this time the convection would have all died.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical cyclones in June are rare but possible and what makes this disturbance interesting is that it's located over the most favorable areas for development this time of the year, subsequently, although development may look a little in the impossible side it got the credits for being located where it is. Let see what happens. I give it a 50% for development and 50% for no development, which at the end is an indecisive opinion.

Sandy Delgado

[Josephine96]

If the convection really hasn't died.. that may mean the system is holding it's own and trying to develop a little

[ColdFront77]

60-70 storms huh Tom.. Thanks for the numbers.. which means like I said.. probably every other year since records began to be kept..

There were a couple less than 70 named storms in the region I mentioned. Not all of which
formed in this area, but indeed the majorty of them have: Courtesy of The Weather Channel

True there has been on average one storm ever other year in the last 118 years.