Thoughts on the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

So far, havnt seen anything that is at all impressive. We are seeing an UL undercutting whatever may be attempting to develop. Plus, none of the guidance really does anything with this system. I doubt that this will become like Bill of last year as we did have a well defined surface feature that crossed the Yucatan, while here we do not.

[Stormcenter]

I guess only time will tell if something does develop or not.

[Anonymous]

Agree, Derek. Not only does this yet to become a surface feature, but also conditions should only get worse over the next few days in the Gulf as a shortwave cuts through the region. This is in contrast to Bill where conditions improved as it moved northward towards the coast.

Could a low develop at the surface? Sure, possibly within the next 24 hours. But will we see a surface low AND corresponding upper high? Doubtful, and that's a problem...surface low and upper low does not equate to a purely tropical system, as you need anticyclonic flow aloft for ventilation and outflow. Even if we do get a surface low, our upper low won't just magically poof...and even if it does slowly weaken as some model guidance suggest, it won't fade quick enough before the system encounters strong shear.

[Aquawind]

Ahhh... Some refreshing reality..

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yeah I have to agree there!

[KatDaddy]

The low-level flow shows this is an upper/mid level low and the shear is still hammering away at the convection. Sure its something to watch ahead of the season but still harmless. I must say I enjoy throwing in the the forecast discussions to stir the pot, so to speak. I have learned to watch, wait, and ignore first model runs. As many have posted over the years, if you live by models you die by models....which often occur. Majority consistency with models is the first clue that something may be in the offing. This is something that is not happening.

The season is still very young.....plenty of time for excitement....hopefully not to much for any of us that enjoy this phenomenon

[HURAKAN]

ABNT20 KNHC 120217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
PRIMARILY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

First they said that development were not likely and then they give it a slight potential. OK, we are changing minds.

Sandy Delgado

[Derek Ortt]

Uh, read the outlook again. Slight chance means just that. There has been no changing of the minds and S2k definately is not changing any minds. I know from experience that only scientific arguments causes those in the field to change their minds

[Matthew5]

This doe's kind of look like Bil,l when it was crossing over. I would give development chances to 30 percent. In not disreguard this system intill nothing is left of it. This is the time of the year to watch systems like this.

[HURAKAN]

Uh, read the outlook again. Slight chance means just that. There has been no changing of the minds and S2k definately is not changing any minds. I know from experience that only scientific arguments causes those in the field to change their minds

OK, it may not be "changing minds", but excuse me!, is not the same saying "no development is expected", than saying "there is a slight potential for development". Is not changing the statement 180º but there is a change. Also, in any moment I said that S2k is changing minds, furthermore, I didn't mention S2k in my statement.



Sandy Delgado

[Anonymous]

Amen Sandy!!!!!!!!

[Matthew5]

Last year Bill started out as a large area of convection, moving over the same area. With a upper low to the east when it moved out into the warm Gulf of Mexico, in headed north. But still had that upper low to the East of it. I would not be at all surprized or Amazed if this thing did almost the same.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HURAKAN]

Last year Bill started out as a large area of convection, moving over the same area. With a upper low to the east when it moved out into the warm Gulf of Mexico, in headed north. But still had that upper low to the East of it. I would not be at all surprized or Amazed if this thing did almost the same.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

+100% in agreement.

Sandy Delgado

[Stormsfury]

Latest 12z ECMWF does not lose the 500mb LOW and basically takes that towards the Central TX coast in 4 days ... and furthermore, it doesn't reflect anything at the H85 level, let alone at the SFC ... H85 winds generally remain from the South across the entire GOM...

[Stormsfury]

Also quite a core of stronger upper level winds cut across from the Southwest and into the region ... starting with 12z ECMWF INITIAL ...

[Anonymous]

Also quite a core of stronger upper level winds cut across from the Southwest and into the region ... starting with 12z ECMWF INITIAL ...

Yep...this is the increase in shear in the N GOM that i've been mentioning in the discussions. IMO, chances for development still appear to be extremely low. It's going to be pretty tough in here next week if i'm wrong. The Euro looks good w/ the shear but I dunno about the track forecast.

[Matthew5]

I think the track will move it to the northwest then feed into a east-northeast moving low at around 25 north. The upper low will likely stay on the eastern side. I think this could develop if things come out of the gate just right.

[Dean4Storms]

This system won't become any major threat as far as a TC goes, but it does have some potential to develop into a weak TC otherwise NHC wouldn't mention the possibility. I've seen stranger systems and environments eventually give way to a surface low and eventual TC development, time will tell here folks. NOBODY knows for certain at this stage what may become of this disturbance, that's weather!

[HurricaneQueen]

Local forecaster are stating that this system could finally bring a good drenching to some of us in SW FL who still need it. Those of us living along the coastline have seen virtually no rain yet this season while 20 miles north they have had over 9 inches so far in June when the average is 9.55" for the entire month.

Bring on the rain!!!

God bless Ronald Reagan and the USA. (and Bush/Cheney, too!!!!)

[dixiebreeze]

I've observed -- and learned -- over the years, that when the TWO report comes up with even a "slight" change toward possible development, we better pay attention.

I think it's pretty rare the pro. mets even slip in a "slight" possibility without thinking it "could" happen.

Of course, if I was being very cynical, I might think it was simply a CYA dodge. But I'm not feeling particularly cynical tonight.