Thoughts on the GOM

[Suzi Q]

This is the kinda stuff that can drive you crazy. From various NWS this morning:

From Dallas NWS:
OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF INTO OUR SOUTHERN PORTIONS TUESDAY...THEN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM...

From Amarillo NWS:
ALSO...THROW IN A CIRCULATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THAT THE ETA AND GFS TRY TO BRING INTO TEXAS

From San Antonio NWS:
IN THE LONGER-TERM...MODELS COMING TO CONSENSUS ON BRINGING UPPER LOW NEAR YUCATAN TOWARD TEXAS BY TUESDAY, THEN SLOWLY DRIFTING WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING IT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS OR JUST WEST INTO MEXICO

From Hou/Gal NWS:
A LOT DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS IN THE GULF ON SUN/MON AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN DRIFTS NW. LATEST GFS IS SHOWING A WEAK SFC LOW FORMING AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW FORMING FURTHER WEST IN THE GULF...WITH DEEP MOISTURE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE UPPER TX COAST ON MONDAY.

From Shreveport NWS:
BY EARLY WEEK THINGS WILL TAKE ON A CHANGE AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MOVES NW INTO SE TX

From Lake Charles NWS:
WILL KEEP A WATCH AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE YUCATAN PEN AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF. THIS LOOKS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AT THIS TIME.

From Melbourne NWS:
MON/TUE...ETA/UKMET FORECASTS HAVE BETTER CONSISTENCY ON MONDAY WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH TWD THE UPPER TX COAST.

From Jackson NWS:
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO WANE SUNDAY AS A TROPICAL UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN TRUDGES ALONG TO THE NORTH AND APPROACHES THE NORTHER HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

No wonder we’re confused!!!!!
Honestly, I got NO idea what will happen, IF it will become something, WHERE it would go IF it did. But after reading all the discussions this morning from various NWS, I give up. Best to just sit back and wait as opposed to -removed-.

[Matthew5]

It seems to be developing deep convection on what maybe a mid level cirualtion? It is centered at around 22.5 north/89.5 west. It has shown a large area of covnection over the last few hours maybe this is the start of something. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[FWBHurricane]

The convection of this system is being sheared away. If you look on some satellite pictures you can see some of the thunderstorms being carried away by the shear from the system. It wont last long and is already starting to show signs of dissipating.

Here is a satellite loop- http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

[Wnghs2007]

The convection of this system is being sheared away. If you look on some satellite pictures you can see some of the thunderstorms being carried away by the shear from the system. It wont last long and is already starting to show signs of dissipating.

Here is a satellite loop- http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Ummm. You have it aimed in the wrong postion and thus looking at the wrong blob. Try the north west coast of the Yucatan Pennisula. Shear Under 20 Knts and weakening slowly there. I think according to a map I saw earlier. I will have to find it. But anyway. No clouds being blow away from were the midlevel center is.

[Thunder44]

I think this is going to develop this weekend. Steve Lyons on TWC just said that there was low-level circulation, just north of blob expanding.

[Matthew5]

I seen it to, I think it might develop to if there is already a LLCC. If there can be just a little more convection over it.