Forget what you are seeing................

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 3:55 pm

headed NW toward TX. This is a mid-UL Low that is forecasted to merge with UL low off southern TX. coast. What the GFS and the more likely scenario that will be crucial for a LLC to form will be well east more off the NE coast of the Yucatan. The GFS in particular develops this LLC and heads it toward the FL Panhandle area. This would also be the most favorable UL area as stated by the NHC. If the convection we now see in the Yuc. channel continues to deepen and clusters in the SE GOM, the GFS may just be on track.

Wnghs2007 · #2 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:02 pm

Well you could be very well right on this one. Because I knew something was wrong with it developing that far west. Oh well all that arguing over a surface low when that might not even be the area of development was for not

#3 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:08 pm

I just learned on top of this that a TW is entering the picture into the Yuc. Channel, this must be the area of concern for a Surface low to develop. Actually, if we do get this UL low more over toward the TX. MX coast it will be quite favorable UL wind wise from just north of the Yucatan and points eastward where this TW is now being forced more NW.

Josephine96 · #4 Postby **Josephine96** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:30 pm

Now if it were to head NE.. and hit the Florida Panhandle.. That could also impact our rain chances here.. We could always use more rain

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:35 pm

The GFS is out to lunch on this one. There's an LLC beginning to form near 23.2N/92.7W. 700mb flow is steering th system NW not NE. I think that this will more likely than not become TD1 tomorrow afternoon when the recon finishes its investigation. Landfall along the mid to upper TX coast on Monday is likely, but all heavy squalls will be displaced well to the east of the center to as far east as MS/AL. Here's the latest image. The apparent weak LLC is west of the convection:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/one.gif">

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:The GFS is out to lunch on this one.

Now theres a surprise :lol:

Thanks Chris for the Update!! :wink:

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:44 pm

23.2°N, 92.7°W puts the center about 480 miles SSE of Houston, TX, about 495 miles SSW of New Orleans, LA and about 720 miles WSW of Tampa, FL.

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 4:46 pm

The GFS is out to lunch on this one.

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!! I have to call CNN. :grrr:

#9 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 5:57 pm

I think the vortex moving west will probably die off. I am looking more east near 91.5 for an LLC. I believe this is one of those situations where we get a LLC spin up from a MLC...then the LLC spins off and croaks and a new LLC forms further east.

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 6:53 pm

I see at least one vortex to the right of 92.7°W, too.

#11 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 6:57 pm

Air Force Met wrote:I think the vortex moving west will probably die off. I am looking more east near 91.5 for an LLC. I believe this is one of those situations where we get a LLC spin up from a MLC...then the LLC spins off and croaks and a new LLC forms further east.

I'm with you Air Force, the current LLC is running out from under any convection and thus us doomed in the dry air. Further east, we have the northern extent of the tropical wave pushing NW across the Yucatan now. This area should emerge overnite into Sunday north of the Yucatan and this is what I believe the GFS is progging on. This new LLC will push northward as it gets caught up in the westerlies and may intensify slightly before landfall.

I posted above for folks to disregard this 700mb low and watch eastward for tomorrow where the new LLC should develop, but we will all have to watch and see.

PTrackerLA · #12 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 7:24 pm

I also agree that a new LLC will form under the MLC further east (about due south of central Louisiana). The clouds in this area have formed a sort of "comma" formation indicative of a mid level circulation center. Now if overnight a new LLC forms in this area we could see this thing go straight to Alex tomorrow when the hurricane hunters are out there. Time will tell we just need to wait for tomorrow!

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:03 pm

People always bite that first LLC as it moves out from the convection. Fool me 50 times shame on you...fool me 51....

Bottom line is that even though the LLC near 93 is impressive...it will not develop. It is embedded in the low level flow and will continue westward and into the dry air...no chance for this one. Another one will likely form under the MLC near 23/91. THat may have a chance of getting together...but the hsear after 24 hours seems a little too strong for this. We MAY have a hybrid system develop...which seems to be very common the last few years.

Maybe a "Gyre" :-)

#14 Postby **elw** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:41 pm

Air Force Met wrote: We MAY have a hybrid system develop...which seems to be very common the last few years.

Maybe a "Gyre"

Which are favored at the start of the season.

It's very hard to get "pure" Tropical development this early in the season. And after all, We're only 12 days into it. I think we're expecting a little too much too soon.

#15 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:50 pm

I agree, that weak swirl we saw today won't be the focus for development. That means the model data initializing a center at 23N/93W are bogus. Watch for possible center reformation (or not) farther east near any heavy convection that persists. Persistence is the key. I haven't seen any blob of convection last more than 4-6 hours yet. Without persistent convection in a single location, there can't be any significant development. I'd say chances of a TD forming tomorrow have diminished.

#16 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:I agree, that weak swirl we saw today won't be the focus for development. That means the model data initializing a center at 23N/93W are bogus. Watch for possible center reformation (or not) farther east near any heavy convection that persists. Persistence is the key. I haven't seen any blob of convection last more than 4-6 hours yet. Without persistent convection in a single location, there can't be any significant development. I'd say chances of a TD forming tomorrow have diminished.

I still think it has a decent to good shot at being at least a TD.

#17 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:30 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
I still think it has a decent to good shot at being at least a TD.

I would agree. One thing in its favor is that I don't really want to work all day tomorrow. M-F, it wouldn't stand a chance. :wink:

Forget what you are seeing................

Forget what you are seeing................

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