Discussion on GOM

[Derek Ortt]

now going with a possibility of a TD

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

[senorpepr]

Good discussion Derek.

[PTrackerLA]

Derek, where do you think the possible TD will make landfall? Nice discussion though.

[rainstorm]

thanks

[Derek Ortt]

It appears to be too early to say as I am not sure if this LLC is going to hold on. There does not appear to be enough convergence for the current LLC to hold on, though this could easily change if we can get some vertical velocity over the LLC. If the current LLC remains the dominant system, prehaps E Texas or LA, though if the LLC reforms, possibly an ELA or Alabama/Panhandle LF is likely

[Derek Ortt]

One other thing, the eventual landfall point is likely to be insignificant as this should be more more than a TD or weak TS. The RMW will likely be well away from the center and even at that, the winds wont the the greatest concern. Instead, flooding well away from the center, along with the possibility of severe weather will likely be the greatest threats

[Sean in New Orleans]

This looks like a Grand Isle to Boothville system that will be a minimal tropical storm on impact. It still may go a little further east, IMO...maybe as far as Mobile.

[senorpepr]

Code: Select all

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130214
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2004
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THIS CIRCULATION.  THERE IS A
SLIGHT POSTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD.  IF NECESSARY...AN AIR
FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

$$