NE Yucatan...............

#1 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:43 pm

I believe the deepening convection over the NE corner of Yucatan is our future true LLC in all this. It certainly looks suspicious and has favorable UL environment. This area would also fall in line with what the GFS has been progging on and even the timing tonight is right on line.

#2 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:45 pm

GFS and tell me what you think..........

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.avnpcp.html

PTrackerLA · #3 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 9:52 pm

Other than a persistent blob hugging the coast, I don't see any indication that a new circulation is forming down there. I'll be watching the central gulf where some thought a MLC had formed today. Even though convection has waned, there is definately some circulation there and I'll be watching tonight for new flareups in this area.

#4 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 10:07 pm

That MLC is doomed, go to this and check WV. Dry air is all over it and you can see the UL jet coming at it from TX. At the same time, note the UL clockwise turning beginning over the convection over the NE Yucatan, very good UL environment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 10:10 pm

I agree Dean4Storms...the current LLC is in an extremely unfavorable environment. There is more moisture to work with and that is where the train of moisture will setup. I don't see any indications of a new LLC forming attm, but that is the place to watch. Still looks like nothing more than a rainmaker.

lilbump3000 · #6 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Jun 12, 2004 10:12 pm

As i post this again, this is what may happen with the system.

SCUBAdude · #7 Postby **SCUBAdude** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 12:08 am

I agree Dean4Storms, I was just noticing the same thing when I was looking at the infrared channel 2 loop. I noticed low clouds racing to the North from below the Yucatan channel. And when looking closely at the current low center, I can see where on it's E side the southerlies shift to SE. That would indicate a possible new LLC forming.
I'd post the link, but I'm not to savvy with computers.

#8 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 1:13 am

I agree too!!!! :lol:

#9 Postby **Steve** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 7:44 am

I don't see it. The new storms this morning are firing up a bit east of the old LLC which is barely visible in a zoom of the GOES IR.

Steve

NE Yucatan...............

NE Yucatan...............

I agree too.

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