As The ULL Moves NNW...

[MWatkins]

I would keep my eye on the persistent ball of deep convection still hanging around the Yucatan...looks like trouble to me.

I've been playing mechanic all day...working on my X-Wife's car of all people...so I am way behind on this system.

But I hope to catch up tomorrow. Looks like a rain event is in store for folks along the central/eastern Gulf coast.

MW

[ColdFront77]

Hello MW.

The Tropical Prediction Center is saying this is a mid to upper level low, opposed to solely an upper level low. We have started to discuss the convection blow up over and offshore the Yucatan. It does indeed bear watching.

[Thunder44]

I don't think the new LLC will form in that ball of convection. At least not that far SE. I think it will be closer to mid-level center further north, where new convection is blowing up. Then maybe that convection NE of the Yucatan will be pulled or expanded further north or NW and join with the convection developing further north.

[ColdFront77]

We shall see, the convection that has flared up off the Yucatan has been there for several hours. In any event that cloudiness, shower and thunderstorm activity should play a role in the potential development of this system.

[Rainband]

802
fxus62 ktbw 130715
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
315 am EDT sun Jun 13 2004


Current/short term (today-mon)...today the weak surface ridge and
middle/upper ridge will remain over the area providing a very light
flow. Isolated convection will develop over the Gulf around
sunrise then redevelop during the late morning just inland
along the sea breeze. Thunderstorms will move very little and
that means some locations will receive heavy rainfall. The upper
level circulation near the Yucatan will move northwest into the
western Gulf by Monday. As the low continues north... an area of deep
layer moisture will move over Florida late today and Monday
increasing rain chances.


Long term (tue ngt-sat)...upper to surface ridging rebuilds and
continues over the region while moisture remains deep. Expect return
to more typical Summer time pattern with diurnal heating and sea
breeze collisions to generate scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms each day with temperatures near normal.


&&


Marine...low pressure well to the west over the Gulf will increase
winds slightly to 10-15 kts over the waters Monday and Tuesday.
&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 091/077 089/076 091 446
fmy 091/076 090/076 091 546
gif 093/075 090/074 092 546
srq 089/075 087/076 088 446
bkv 092/073 088/073 091 446


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...cp
long term...Rd

[Matthew5]

There seems to be a MLC forming around 24 north/92 west. With deep convection forming over the top.

[tracyswfla]

So rain chances are pretty good for SW Florida?

802
fxus62 ktbw 130715
afdtbw


West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
315 am EDT sun Jun 13 2004


Current/short term (today-mon)...today the weak surface ridge and
middle/upper ridge will remain over the area providing a very light
flow. Isolated convection will develop over the Gulf around
sunrise then redevelop during the late morning just inland
along the sea breeze. Thunderstorms will move very little and
that means some locations will receive heavy rainfall. The upper
level circulation near the Yucatan will move northwest into the
western Gulf by Monday. As the low continues north... an area of deep
layer moisture will move over Florida late today and Monday
increasing rain chances.


Long term (tue ngt-sat)...upper to surface ridging rebuilds and
continues over the region while moisture remains deep. Expect return
to more typical Summer time pattern with diurnal heating and sea
breeze collisions to generate scattered afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms each day with temperatures near normal.


&&


Marine...low pressure well to the west over the Gulf will increase
winds slightly to 10-15 kts over the waters Monday and Tuesday.
&&


Fire weather...no highlights.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 091/077 089/076 091 446
fmy 091/076 090/076 091 546
gif 093/075 090/074 092 546
srq 089/075 087/076 088 446
bkv 092/073 088/073 091 446


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...none.


&&


$$


Short term...cp
long term...Rd