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[Dean4Storms]

FXUS64 KMOB 130810
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE GULF DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18
HOURS. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROF/LOW...SATELLITE
REPRESENTATION THIS MORNING IS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE...SHOWING HIGH
PRESSURE EVACUATING AIR AT HIGH LEVELS OUT OF SOUTHERN GULF SYSTEM.
THIS HAS SUPPORTED A PERSISTENT AND LARGE CIRCULAR AREA OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. BANDING IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO INDICATION VIA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF A CLOSED LOW FORMING AS OF YET. BUT...THERE
IS A SHARP LOW LEVEL TROF/WAVE AXIS PRESENT THERE. WITH UPPER HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST GULF AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT. WILL BE WATCHING THIS
EVOLVING PATTERN WITH GREAT INTEREST. THINKING IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES)
ALONG WITH DEEP LIFT...IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH POLEWARD MOTION OF GULF SYSTEM INTO COASTAL
LOUISIANA. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA ON THE DIRTY SIDE OF
THINGS...AS FAR AS RAIN IS CONCERNED...WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE
FAVORED EAST SIDE OF SYSTEM. GRIDDED QPF POSES THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
THIS PACKAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MENTIONED AS WELL AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. WILL DEFER ANY DECISION REGARDING FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES TO DAYSHIFT AS WE GET ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE IN. IN NUMBERS
BELOW...MONDAY MAXES WILL BE SET CONSIDERABLY LOWER TO REFLECT CLOUDY
AND WET CONDITIONS.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE GULF...REFER TO THE
LATEST PRODUCTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

&&

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT PACKAGE WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION...WHICH REFLECTS A DIURNAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID AND LATE WEEK. NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES. /10

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
WILL WEAKEN AS THE ETA AND GFS ARE NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A SURFACE LOW UP INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY MONDAY. THE
GFS STILL SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTERN TRACK...BRINGING THE LOW INTO
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE ETA TAKES THE LOW
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LA ABOUT THE SAME TIME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...
BUT WITH SEVERAL CONSISTENT AND CONVERGING MODEL RUNS...AM BEGINNING
TO EXPECT AT LEAST A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT BEGINNING TONIGHT...
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND HOLDING THERE THRU MONDAY
NIGHT...WHILE BUILDING SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FEET. THIS ALLOWS DAYSHIFT ROOM
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT IF SURFACE DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS. COASTAL
WATERS REMAIN ON THE WET SIDE...SO WORDING FOR NUMEROUS CONVERGE BY
MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PUSHES WELL INLAND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RELAXING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. /39

[Brent]

Looks like a rainy/breezy mess in FWB for our vacation.

[Dean4Storms]

AFD New Orleans........


000
FXUS64 KLIX 130907
AFDNEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINNING ITS NORTHWARD JOURNEY THIS
MORNING. LOOKING AT A VERY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS WELL MOVING IN THE
GULF. A SFC CONVECTIVE INDUCED CIRCULATION IS FOUND AT ABOUT 23.8N
95.2W WHICH MOVED AWAY FROM THE MAIN AREA OF TS EARLIER TODAY. IT IS
TRAVERSING BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SHEAR THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE WEAK SFC SYSTEM. ANY TS THAT
DEVELOP WITH IT SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST WHILE IT DECAYS TODAY.
MODELS DO PICK UP ON THIS FEATURE...ESPECIALLY THE ETA...BUT
INITIALIZE IT TOO FAR SOUTH AND A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT IS. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST WHILE BECOMING SHEARED AND
ELONGATED OVER TIME SINCE THERE IS NO LARGE SCALE COMPLEX DEVELOPING
WITH IT. ANOTHER CIRCULATION IS NOTICED IN THE MID LEVELS AT
23.6N 91.8W AND IS A LITTLE BETTER POSITIONED JUST INSIDE THE OUTER
PERIFERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE SH/TS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ARE
BEING SHEARED BY THE UPPER TROUGH WINDS FROM THE SW SO FLUCTUATIONS
MAY BE SEEN OUT OF THIS WEAK CIRCULATION AS WELL. THE MAIN AREA OF
MORE CONCERN WOULD BE BACK OVER THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN
WHERE THE RECENT BLOW UP OF SH/TS HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE WEAKEST
PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WINDS. LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH ALL THIS MOISTURE
AND EVEN A POSSIBLE SFC SYSTEM DEVELOPING. NO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
NOTICEABLE FROM ANY OF THE COMPLEXES. THAT WOULD INDICATE
OVERTURNING AND MIXING AND WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. TPC IS ALSO KEEPING A KEEN EYE ON THESE AREAS AND MAY
SEND A RECON PLANE LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY.

*
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM NWS/TPC...
A WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DISPLACED WELL TO
ITS EAST. ALTHOUGH THIS CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO MOVE
WESTWARD...THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD. IF NECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
*

EVEN IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A DEPRESSION OR BETTER...IT WILL STILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR WINDS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL AND
SHOULD BE THE LARGE AMOUNT OF RAIN WATER THAT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND LATE TODAY AND MONDAY. WILL NOT GO OUT
WITH A FLOOD WATCH ATTM SINCE MAIN AREA OF RAIN AND WAKE TROUGH
BEHIND THE SYSTEM IS STILL A BIT IN QUESTION. WILL ADVISE DAY SHIFT
OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WILL SET TWO MAJOR FACTORS THAT SHOULD CONCERN THE AREA LATE TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE HWO. ONE WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL...THE SECOND WILL BE THE INCREASED CHANCE OF WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPMENT NEAR SHORE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW OF THOSE MOVING
ONSHORE.

WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
SQUALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND SYNOPTIC WINDS MAY
REACH SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

[Aquawind]

Tampa Discussion Come to Florida Baby..

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130715
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

CURRENT/SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...TODAY THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AND
MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA PROVIDING A VERY LIGHT
FLOW. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AROUND
SUNRISE THEN REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING JUST INLAND
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND
THAT MEANS SOME LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL. THE UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE NORTHWEST INTO THE
WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTH... AN AREA OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND MONDAY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES..LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...UPPER TO SFC RIDGING REBUILDS AND
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION WHILE MOISTURE REMAINS DEEP. EXPECT RETURN
TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS TO GENERATE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
TSTMS EACH DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE GULF WILL INCREASE
WINDS SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KTS OVER THE WATERS MON AND TUES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 091/077 089/076 091 446
FMY 091/076 090/076 091 546
GIF 093/075 090/074 092 546
SRQ 089/075 087/076 088 446
BKV 092/073 088/073 091 446

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...RD