TPC - Possbile Cyclone Dev. Map

[KatDaddy]

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Danger Areas map.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/danger_atl_09.gif

This may not become an organized TD or TS however alot of tropical rains could affect a very large area of the Gulf Coast. You Floridian's need this rain. Many of the Texas AFDs are highlighting the concern of serious widespread flooding should the tropical moisture make into Texas.
With the upper/mid level low being SSE of Brownsville, this would open the door for most of Texas and points eastward for tropical moisture. It would be better for Texas if TD or TS forms over the Central or SE GOM.
Subsidence keep Texas dry.

[Portastorm]

Yes Kat, the flooding potential for Texas is great and should be of concern. We here in Central Texas received anywhere from 4-10 inches of rainfall this past week. Areas north of us received more and the flooding was fairly bad in and around DFW.

Any type of tropical moisture tap into these areas would really be bad this week as the ground is still saturated from our rainfall.

Seems like the Texas AFDs mentioned a mid-upper low breaking off the complex in the GOM and migrating westward, eventually parking itself off the lower/mid Texas coast. Should that indeed occur ... it could get rather ugly/interesting in parts of our Lone Star State this week.

[KatDaddy]

I read that AFD also. Several days of torrential rains on saturated soils would be a disaster. Along the immediate Upper Texas Coast we were spared the flooding rains. Area 50 mile W of Houston had 4-10" rains over several days.

[ColdFront77]

Areas that are in a drought can have flooding, too, due to the harder soil in those areas.

[Anonymous]

DFW is wet enuff already. But the discussion mentions some rain possibilities from the blob. It looks east of DFW though, so far.
They sound somewhat unclear as to what to do with the forecast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THIS FEATURE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...A SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE AREAS
THAT RECEIVE THE MOST PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER LOCATIONS THAT ARE ALREADY NEAR SATURATION. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WARRANT SOME LOW POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[vbhoutex]

Just came back from Austin this afternoon. ALL of the rivers are running very high. Had some storms in Johnson City around 4 am last night too. Drove into rain here in Houston and it continued to build to my east to a severe level with flooding in the Downtown area. We really don't need any more rain and if that cut off occurs I don't like the prospects.