TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - 23.5N0 92.5W6

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KatDaddy
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TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT - 23.5N0 92.5W6

#1 Postby KatDaddy » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:27 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.4N9 92.6W7 TO 25.1N8 93.8W0
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130900Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 23.5N0 92.5W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 140900Z4.
//
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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#2 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:30 am

Recon will be out there in about 4-5 hours. We might have something here.
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#3 Postby tracyswfla » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:39 am

This certainly will be an interesting day to keep an eye on the tropics!

Tracy
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#4 Postby Matthew5 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:39 am

Convection have formed in that area with a noticeable twisting.
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#5 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 9:42 am

i feel the system might or is about to swing to a ENE movement!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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It's not moving...

#6 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:05 am

hurricanefloyd5 wrote:i feel the system might or is about to swing to a ENE movement!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


It's not moving much at all and not definitely not ENE.
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#7 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:08 am

If anything the movement will be NW to NNW until landfall.

And if there is a shortwave trough that is suppose to be coming down in like 24 hours like some people say then i will say the movement will then be a more N to NNE movement.
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#8 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:20 am

Don't see the ENE movement happening. I predict landfall from Galveston to Morgan City, LA.
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#9 Postby MGC » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:21 am

Did notice a bit of a spin just to the north of the Yucatan Channel. Only question is it at or near the surface? QuickScat did not reveal a surface circulation on its latest pass. We shall see what Recon finds this afternoon.....MGC
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#10 Postby lilbump3000 » Sun Jun 13, 2004 10:24 am

I doubt if anything will form by the yucatan channel, if it does it will prove me wrong, but if nothing happens in the central gulf, i think nothing will happen at all.
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