update on gulf of mexico. Appears LLCC is under subsidence

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics today reveals a few features, one of which is expected to threaten the western Gulf Coast of the United States later Monday into Tuesday. The deep layer cyclonic circulation is near 23 north, 93 west with a trough axis extending across the Bay Of Campeche to near 17N, 95W. The problem is we have lots of subsidence with this system. Conevection remains underneath the mid/upper level low while the surface low of 1010 mb is located well west of this convection and is totally exposed underneath the subsidence/dry air. As a result I don't expect tropical development anytime soon with this.

Complicating the matters is the fact a shortwave trough will approach this system and increase the shear. As a result of the subsidence over the low level center and increasing shear, the chances for tropical development is quite low at this time.

However having said that, we still need to watch for heavy rains from the Texas coast eastward into the Louisiana and Mississippi coastal waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Amounts of 6 inches or greater are possible in a few spots during this timeframe. More updates will be issued on this system throughout the day as I get them. But so far, I don't see this developing much at all.

The rest of the Atlantic is quiet this morning.

Jim

[PTrackerLA]

The weak LLC is fading fast and will have likely dissipated by this evening. I'm watching the MLC to the east of it for development of a new LLC.

[lilbump3000]

And that is what the recon is going investagate in about 3 1/2 hours.

[Matthew5]

That is also where the convection is blowing up at this hour. Right where they put the tropical formation alert on.

[PTrackerLA]

That is also where the convection is blowing up at this hour. Right where they put the tropical formation alert on.

Exactly and somehow people are looking in the Yucatan channel for development .

[lilbump3000]

Nothings going to develop in the yucatan channel.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That mid level cirulation must be watched. The LLCC is fading fast under the subsidence area. The question is will this convection persist under the mid level disturbance and help transfer that energy from the mid levels to the low levels and the surface. That's what we need to watch. A recon plane is expected to be in this system by mid to late afternoon around the area of 27 north, 94 west.

Whether this developes or not, a huge rain maker is expected from Houston eastward through New Orleans and Gulfport with again 6 inches or more a real possibility late Monday through Tuesday.

[PTPatrick]

Do you think the recon will check out the 23/93 area where the MLC is? I know thw one to west is playing the engine the could...maybe it will ultimately get its crap together b/c it has persisted for so long...but the one more to the east just seems to have a better chance .

[lilbump3000]

I think thats were the recon is going at. There going to investagate the MLC to see if it is a LLC around 23/93.

[PTPatrick]

Just looked at teh vis and IR and it appears that the orginal LLC to the west is really getting its act together...you can almost see a comma trying form in the CDO on the visible pic. Perhaps that MLC will becom more of convective feeder. Of course the LLC could also get absorbed...either way it appears that this wil be a very large subtropical type storm.

[ColdFront77]

Exactly and somehow people are looking in the Yucatan channel for development .

I don't believe any of us TRULY were looking for development in the Yuctan Channel. There was mention about the Yucatan Channel because of the convection that flared up early this morning in association with this system as the convection around the center during that time was dissipating.

Spinning convection has potential, but the spin in the Gulf has been the area to watch.