LLC convergence has increased

[Derek Ortt]

We are finally seeing some nice LL convergence this morning, based upon the visible imagery. Prehaps a weak TD is forming and we very ell could see one this afternoon (means a VERY long day at the office for me overnight and into tomorrow

[Matthew5]

We will see when the recon go's in

[Anonymous]

I will be on all day tracking THIS.

[lilbump3000]

recon already in there right now.

[Josephine96]

Hope recon finds something.. TD 1 here we come {I hope}

[HurricaneGirl]

YAY!!

[Josephine96]

Mary's excited as I am.. lol

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 131715
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.CURRENTLY...STILL NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAND AREA OF THE FA.
DEPSITE VERY LIGHT FLOW...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND. REALLY DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY?? HOWEVER...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL INLAND WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT INTERIOR FA SOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
ACTIVATE LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TOO.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENT GULF.
NONE OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE LOWER LEVEL CENTER THAT
APPEARS TO BE FORMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENT
GULF. NONE-THE-LESS...HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY THE GFS...WHICH
MOVES A WEAK SFC LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA BY MON...CONTINUING
NORTHWARD INTO THE LARGER SCALE SFC TROF OVER THE CENT U.S. TUES.
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE INCREASED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO SFC LOW.
MAV GUIDANCE STILL GOES LIKELY POPS (~60%) FOR THE N 1/2 OF THE FA
MON...AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. BY
TUES...SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE S FA SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...WHICH NOW WANTS TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN FA. HAVE
CONTINUED CHC/SCT POPS FOR TUES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH...AND THE LOWEST OVER THE S FA.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/UPPER TROUGH. FLOW RETURNS
TO A MORE S/SE DIRECTION. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE...WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ALLOWING MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS STAY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER THE GULF WELL WEST OF THE FA. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR BIG
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THE PROGRESSION BACK TO A
MORE SSE FLOW...RATHER THAN WSW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 090 077 092 / 30 60 30 40
FMY 076 091 076 092 / 30 50 30 30

[Kennethb]

From my observations it appears that there are more than one vortices, but with one trying to take over.

My opinion is the it will be classified as a tropical system, if not for the one reason for the TPC to protect mariners on the water.

A declared tropical system will make mariners take notice to stay away from the open seas and batten down, especially since these hybrids can produce stronger wind fields away from the center.

Too, the TPC will have themselved protected in case the system does strengthen overnight.

[ColdFront77]

Perhaps because of the Gulf Tropical Disturbance.....

000
FXUS62 KTBW 131715
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
114 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.CURRENTLY...STILL NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE LAND AREA OF THE FA.
DEPSITE VERY LIGHT FLOW...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STRUGGLING TO MOVE
INLAND. REALLY DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY?? HOWEVER...EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS MOVED WELL INLAND WITH SOME SCT SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT INTERIOR FA SOON. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD
ACTIVATE LATER THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TOO.[/color]

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUES)...MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENT GULF.
NONE OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE LOWER LEVEL CENTER THAT
APPEARS TO BE FORMING UNDER THE UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENT
GULF. NONE-THE-LESS...HAVE GONE WITH GENERALLY THE GFS...WHICH
MOVES A WEAK SFC LOW NORTHWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA BY MON...CONTINUING
NORTHWARD INTO THE LARGER SCALE SFC TROF OVER THE CENT U.S. TUES.
MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT TO BE INCREASED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BUT LATEST MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF
SOMEWHAT...KEEPING BEST MOISTURE FARTHER WEST...CLOSER TO SFC LOW.
MAV GUIDANCE STILL GOES LIKELY POPS (~60%) FOR THE N 1/2 OF THE FA
MON...AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT TREND...BUT CONFIDENCE RATHER LOW. BY
TUES...SOME DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE S FA SOUTH OF THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGE...WHICH NOW WANTS TO SIT OVER THE NORTHERN FA. HAVE
CONTINUED CHC/SCT POPS FOR TUES...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
NORTH...AND THE LOWEST OVER THE S FA.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW/UPPER TROUGH. FLOW RETURNS
TO A MORE S/SE DIRECTION. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
STATE...WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ALLOWING MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. TEMPS STAY NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...MODELS KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPING SFC
LOW OVER THE GULF WELL WEST OF THE FA. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR BIG
CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THE PROGRESSION BACK TO A
MORE SSE FLOW...RATHER THAN WSW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 078 090 077 092 / 30 60 30 40
FMY 076 091 076 092 / 30 50 30 30