Here it comes....

[Stormcenter]

Here comes the disturbance, TD, TS, or whatever. I know there are many on this board who based on their own analysis think this won't develop but come on how many times have you seen these things wind up as they approach the coast?
I rest my case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Stormsfury]

I wouldn't be surprised for another blowup of convection given all the diffluent shear currently impacting the region ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HurricaneGirl]

Nice Loop SF!

[Stormcenter]

Look at how the clouds are feeding from the south into the "possible" LLC.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Matthew5]

I see! I can't wait intill recon can close a LLCC.

[lilbump3000]

In about an hour they should be heading on out there. It wont take them that long to get there.

[wxman57]

I'd point out -- look at how the dry air is wrapping around from the south and east now. The convection has dropped off near that western swirl in the past hour as dry air intrudes. Recon may possibly be able to locate a weak LLC, but convection may be dying out by then.

[Stormcenter]

I'd point out -- look at how the dry air is wrapping around from the south and east now. The convection has dropped off near that western swirl in the past hour as dry air intrudes. Recon may possibly be able to locate a weak LLC, but convection may be dying out by then.

As I stated before how many times have we seen this type of scenario?
A developing system fighting off dry air only to finally develop as it approaches the coast. I'm not saying this will happen but I would NOT be shocked if it did. There is still a lot of water for this "disturbance" to travel over.

[Rainband]

If that convection over the YP was near the LLC then I'd say it had a better chance. Still, some much needed rain for areas of the Gulfcoast

[Stormsfury]

As I stated before how many times have we seen this type of scenario?
A developing system fighting off dry air only to finally develop as it approaches the coast. I'm not saying this will happen but I would NOT be shocked if it did. There is still a lot of water for this "disturbance" to travel over.

The problem is IF it does fight off the dry air, UNLIKE Allison, and Bill which featured IMPROVING Upper Level Environment, this one will NOT have that luxury ... the s/w trough that will dig in will reestablish already ever present wind shear, and only serve to increase it ... NOT ONE MODEL do anything with the system now until after the merger with the GOM mid-level low/trough and the longwave trough in the Central States ... and by that time any SFC feature will be over land ... (and the guidance that develops a SFC feature do so OVER LAND)

SF

[Josephine96]

The waters in the Gulf are warm.. which could lead to this thing wrapping and developing when it approaches someone's coastline.

Lets just wait and see what happens

[Stormcenter]

The waters in the Gulf are warm.. which could lead to this thing wrapping and developing when it approaches someone's coastline.

Lets just wait and see what happens

That's what I've been saying.

[Opal storm]

Here comes the disturbance, TD, TS, or whatever. I know there are many on this board who based on their own analysis think this won't develop but come on how many times have you seen these things wind up as they approach the coast?
I rest my case.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-l
oop.html

I doubt they will find a td nor a ts out there,Im very SUPRISED they decided to go out and investigate it.The weak LLC is far from any convection and even if the convection does fire up around the LLC(which is likely to occur today),it will be making landfall tomorrow.At the very most(I think) maybe a td,thats it.Over all just some VERY HEAVY rain for the Gulf coast.

[Josephine96]

LOL StormCenter.. I just thought it deserved to be repeated

[lilbump3000]

The main area is the spin east of the regular LLC that is in all that dry air.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm not sure that the system will be a depression with the next official reports, but, it may be. I will say that the system is getting better organized and it appeared to me last night that the center of circulation did reorganize itself under the convection just to the NE of all of the surface circulation we saw last night. As I went to bed, I was certain that the system was trying to get more organized in the warm waters of the Gulf. This morning it appears that the system is still in the beginning phases of getting itself wrapped up and organized. This is nothing new, different, or overly-exciting that we haven't seen many times in the past in June. It's actually pretty typical. The system should become a minimal tropical storm, continue heading NNW and then turn N, and finally a NE turn just before landfall, IMO. I'm still expecting a minimal tropical storm to hit the central or SE Louisiana coast late Monday PM or Tuesday. If we look at past occurrences, we are simply witnessing something that is fairly commonplace. The season is just starting and will become more active as we progress into the summer months. With this system, the main concern will be torrential rains, which will be the main problem as usually is the problem with early season systems. Nevertheless, it'll be interesting to watch. And I certainly get a kick out of watching individual's debate every single cloud in the system. I watch them, as well, just am not a real debater on the occurrences. The outer edges soon will be approaching metro New Orleans and I'll go outside and get a firsthand look at the approaching clouds. I'll know pretty quick what we are dealing with by analyzing the colors, and elevation of the clouds. This is the first giveaway to me. It appears to me that the clouds and rain are moving fairly quickly, which could be indicative of a depression, but, we'll find out soon.

[wxman57]

The main area is the spin east of the regular LLC that is in all that dry air.

But the plane isn't heading over there to that weak mid-level circulation - it's heading west to that little blob of convection where the NHC is initializing the models - around 24N/93W.

[Lindaloo]

So true 57! They are going to the wrong place.

[PTPatrick]

I think there is definately something popping on the western low...I mean it looks very nice right and the circulation is clearly there on satellite...meanwhile to the east, we now see the beginnings of a pop of thunderstorms right at teh low center...look at a recent IR and you will see it...so the MLC to the east could still go...guess it aint over til its over

[wxman57]

So true 57! They are going to the wrong place.

I'm not saying it's the wrong place. There's nothing at the surface off to the east for the plane to visit. Just a weak mid level swirl. But there is an apparent LLC forming near 24N/92.5W in the center of that small area of convection. Guess I'll have to head into the office to get ready just in case.