Here is what I see.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

There is a very complex situation in the GOM. I see two main areas of what appears to be surface low pressure, or developing surface low pressure, via the visible satellite pictures:

1) 25 N 88 W
You can clearly see a large low level circulation, however, thunderstorms are clearly off to the NE of the center.

2) 25 N 92 W
This appears to be the more organized of the two in terms of thunderstorm activity, however, the LLCC is a little more difficult to pinpoint.

Both systems appear to be moving in tangent with each other in a larger low pressure system (as if you were in a pool, if you swirled your hand in a circle, you would make multiple vortices around your larger center), but the western most may be sapping the energy from the one at 88 W, which should move the dominant system to 92 W.

If this is the case, I do expect to see a tropical depression, and possibly up to a moderate tropical storm, develop from this western most system due to its current organization. It should move NW-NNW for a little while longer, then turn N, NNE, and NE slowly...possibly reaching land in MS-AL-FL panhandle by late Monday or Tuesday.

I doubt that both will continue due to the strength of 92 W, however, if both do continue, do not expect much strengthening out of the system...a tropical depression may develop, but that would be unlikely due to interference.

[wxman57]

The data out there say just the opposite, though. No evidence at all of an LLC near 25/88, but there is evidence of one out west near 24/92.5. Nothing will likely "pop" in the eastern area. Pressures at the surface are rising there.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

This is what I am talking about. There is evidence of rotation on the visible satellite BUT the 92 W low is sapping the energy from the 88 W area, which is causing the pressures to rise in that vicinity. I greatly agree with you that the 92 W low is dominant by far and would be the center to watch. 88 W is more likely a satellite vorticity.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I doubt it will go that far East. I'm thinking a Grand Isle, LA to Boothville, LA landfall as the storm turns NE. I also think the western center is the actual center and all other activity in the Gulf is beginning to develop into this system as a tropical storm is forming before our eyes. As I look at this system today, it is clear that a storm is forming and it's not surprising with the temperatures of the water in the Gulf of Mexico. It's going to be a wet system, as well.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The Recon has found a west wind, albeit a weak one, in RECCO Obs #8.... 27010 (270 degrees, 10 KTS)