Gulf System Thoughts So Far...

[MWatkins]

Coupe of things to note:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The point initialized as the surface center in the 18Z tropical models is 3/4 surrounded by very dry air and there is not much if any outflow to speak of. Hence...the intensity guidance calls for very little strengthening. The moisture coming into the system is wrapping around from the southeast...but if/when something works down to the surface it's going to start picking up this stable air and that in itself will limit intensification.

Also...most of these models are pointing the system to the NNE over time. Even though these models are about 1/2 as accurate as the globals..they are sniffing the right track I think...the GFS at 12Z suggests a rapid track towards the New Orleans area in 36 hours or less...and this seems reasonable. The GFDL...as usual..is of little help.

The GFS also realistically depicts some southerly shear in the upper levels from the upper low to the north...which at first glance would suggest shearing. The system will be moving in the same direction as the upper flow...however...and as such relative shear will be lessened. One argument against development is that the UKMET isn't doing anything development wise with this system.

Given everything...recon will probably find a broad circulation and perhaps an embedded surface center...50/50 on an upgrade in the next 12 hours. It's possible that we could get a name from this system...but not much more. I would guess a landfall a little to the west of New Orleans in 36 hours or less. If they upgrade the system I'll get more specific with a forecast tonight...

MW

[ColdFront77]

Sorry for sounding literal or whatever, but there isn't anything more than a named storm; I assume you mean nothing more than a "hurricane status named storm," thus seeing a "tropical storm status named storm."

[Sean in New Orleans]

I agree MWatkins---a wet tropical storm should make landfall between Grand Isle, LA and Boothville, LA by Monday PM or early Tuesday AM. I would be surprised if winds are above 50kts. I'm thinking wet. Classic June situation for the Gulf of Mexico. No real surprises with this system, at all.

[MWatkins]

Sorry for sounding literal or whatever, but there isn't anything more than a named storm; I assume you mean nothing more than a "hurricane status named storm," thus seeing a "tropical storm status named storm."

Corrocto...Mr. Cold Front. You stated it much better then I did...I would expect at most a 35 knot (40mph) storm at landfall if it organizes.

MW

[wxman57]

I agree MWatkins---a wet tropical storm should make landfall between Grand Isle, LA and Boothville, LA by Monday PM or early Tuesday AM. I would be surprised if winds are above 50kts. I'm thinking wet. Classic June situation for the Gulf of Mexico. No real surprises with this system, at all.

Don't focus on any possible center, look at the effects. This system is 500+ miles across. It'll move ashore between the mid LA coast and Florida - ALL AREAS may get heavy rain but no wind to speak of inland, not just one point.

[Lowpressure]

Do not expect a name with this system. Looks like a wet depression moving in Northern Gulf around Biloxi. It sure gives you an early indication that the Gulf might be active this season, we shall see. Have fun Dixie.

[Frank P]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated wind gusts within the t-storms generated by this wannabe TD of at least 30-40 mph well east of what ever kind of center this thing has when it comes inland.... I don't expect all that much here in Biloxi except some good old fashion deluges. Living on the beach will give me a nice view of whatever happens.... most of the pros on this board that have been following this system that past couple of days has been pretty much right on as to its lack of development....

[Kennethb]

After seeing how strong the SW in east Texas is and the strong westerlies over north Mexico, the ULL looks to be sheared apart with a lot of moisture from the Gulf interacting the the trough. Some will get a deluge.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm not saying it won't have a name until the center is over land--PERIOD. I've been wrong more times saying they wouldn't develop than when I said they would. I'm sticking with a small tropical storm around Grand Isle to Boothville, LA at landfall. Just because it's going through a weakening cycle certainly doesn't rule out anything at this point. The system is over warm waters and all it takes is a brief flare up and we'll have the storm. Of course, I could be wrong, but, I don't think so. Regardless, it's only threat will be heavy rain, whatever it is, when it crosses from water to land.

[lilbump3000]

I think the projected path might be a little smaller than from boothville to grand isle, i will say from the central louisiana coast to the mississippi coast.

[MWatkins]

After looking at things tonight...if this system is going to develop it needs to do something fast. There has been no new deep convection in a while now and the low appears very broad with no clearly defined center.

With nothing specifically doing the forcing at the surface this system appears to have not worked all the way down...the ULL to the west is no longer helping...it's hurting.

So with that said (or I guess written)...I do not believe a TD will come of this system. It looks like a relatively fast moving rain maker that will cause some problems for the southeast for a few days...but definately not a wind event.

MW