Brownsville AFD

[KatDaddy]

Tough to say what will eventually unfold.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...COMPLICATED SCENARIO SETTING UP THIS WEEK WITH MODELS
NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT. TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE QUIET AS
DRIER AIR AND SLIGHT SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HOLD DOWN SHOWERS ON THE
SEABREEZE.

THEN ALL EYES LOOK INTO THE GULF. A MIDLEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH. A
SURFACE LOW IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF BUT IS
STILL HAVING TROUBLE DOING SO. THERE IS ALSO A MIDLEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL US WITH A LOW CUTTING OFF INTO TEXAS. MODELS
ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE UPPER GULF LOW GETTING ABSORBED/MERGING
INTO THE LOW CUTTING OFF INTO TEXAS. THE SURFACE LOW GETS DRAGGED
INTO EAST TEXAS/WEST LOUISIANA WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
IT IS STILL UNKNOWN IF THE SFC LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OR REMAIN AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE GULF. OUR MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
COME WHEN THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIP WILL
BE CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. HAVE DECIDED
TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT MAY NEED TO UP
THESE IF THE LOW STALLS FARTHER WEST. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
LATE WEEK AS THE LOW EJECTS AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN AT
UPPER LEVELS.

[PTrackerLA]

Lake Charles seems confused too. They're gonna "wing it with a prayer" .

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
217 PM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.CURRENT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES SOARED
INTO THE LOWER 90S. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO HELP TRIGGER NEW DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT FROM CROWLEY IN ACADIA
PARISH WAS RECEIVED THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH CAPES...WEAK WINDS ALOFT
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HELPED TO PUT SOME SPIN ON THINGS.

.DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 MILES SOUTH OF LAKE CHARLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND SPREAD WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY SETS UP ON ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR. RAINS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE AREA SLOWLY
WEAKENS. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL RAINS WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. IF THE DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF
BECOMES ORGANIZED...THEN THINGS COULD GET QUITE HECTIC ON MONDAY.
THE ETA/AVN MODELS REALLY DIDN'T SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT THINKING WITH NHC SO HAVE DECIDED TO USE THE ETA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING AND THEN JUST WING IT WITH A PRAYER THAT THE WEATHER BEHAVES
WITH NHC AS THE GUIDING LIGHT TO MAKE THIS FORECAST. RESIDENTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AS CONDITIONS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

[southerngale]

Interesting PT...never heard them use that term before!