2:45 PM EDT Storm2k Special Statement

[cycloneye]

Waiting for recon to report but made a statement.Read it below and comments are welcomed.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html

[bevgo]

thanks for the update! Looking to the recon info.

[Anonymous]

Just need to wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Nothing strong found yet in terms of winds over 25 kts and no vortex message so far but the waiting game continues.

[Hurricanehink]

The waiting game sucks. Let's play hungry hungry hippos

Seriously, though, I can't wait until 5. 50 minutes until we find the truth.

[Bane]

It's still early in the seaon, very early. If it forms, it's just a bonus.

[ColdFront77]

Not a total bonus. This system is in a climatologically favorable area for June.

[Bane]

It may be in a favored area, but storms forming in June are very, very rare.

[ColdFront77]

My thread from yesterday at 5:05 PM Eastern: GOM and W. Carribean named storms (unless noted)

[Bane]

Thanks for proving my point. They do happen, and have happened more often in the last 10 years, but they remain rare, usually happening about every 2 and a half years.

[ColdFront77]

There could be a lot fewer than 55 in the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea, too. (The other 10 formed outside that region)

[MGC]

A rare event in the tropics? How about a April TS and 2 named systems in December. A TC in the GOM durning June is not a rare event.....MGC

[Bane]

Yes, it is. It doesn't happen on average every year. Heck, it rarely, on average, happens every 2 years. April and December storms are extremely rare, and more so than a June storm, but it is still a rare event. More than one June storm would be extremely rare.

[Janie34]

Ahhh, but not as rare as the tropical cyclone that hit Brazil recently! Even if the government of Brazil refused to acknowledge it as such.......

[Bane]

I would guess not. It had never happened before.

[HURAKAN]

A rare event in the tropics? How about a April TS and 2 named systems in December. A TC in the GOM durning June is not a rare event.....MGC

Well, according to scientists we are going through a very active era in the Atlantic Ocean that should continue for 20 to 25 years more. Subsequently, rare events like Ana, Odette, and Peter may be a normal event during these eras. During the next decades we should see some other rare storms like those ones. Only time will tell.

[elw]

All Calendar months (with the exception of March) have had a Named TS or Hurricane.

Between 1948 and 2003, In December, 5 total storms were observed over the 1948-2003 (55 year) period in the years 1953, 1954, 1975, 1984, and 2003.

There was one named storm in January of 1978, and another storm in February 1952.

The storms which occurred out of season during the Northern Hemispheric winter (excluding December) were most rare. Only two formed over the entire 55 year period period.

April had two, One on 1992, and the other last year, and May had 7 total over the period.

In 2001, Olga developed in November, and extended over into December.

[elw]

A rare event in the tropics? How about a April TS and 2 named systems in December. A TC in the GOM durning June is not a rare event.....MGC

Well, according to scientists we are going through a very active era in the Atlantic Ocean that should continue for 20 to 25 years more. Subsequently, rare events like Ana, Odette, and Peter may be a normal event during these eras. During the next decades we should see some other rare storms like those ones. Only time will tell.

Three December storms formed during the 1948-1977 Cold PDO/Strong ATC period, and only one storm developed in December during the ATC weak period from 1977-1995.

The more rare events, in January 1978, and February 1952, are harder to correlate to either of those two phases, due to their infrequency. The April storms are similar, one in 1992 (PDO warm/ATC weak) and the other in 2003, (ATC strong/PDO cold (long term average).

In May 7 storms developed during the PDO cold/ATC strong cycle from 1948-1977, and only one during the last ATC weak and PDO warm period. In 1981.