Evening update on GOM disturbance..

[WXBUFFJIM]

Taking a look at the situation tonight reveals very little organization with this broad area of low pressure over the central Gulf Of Mexico. Observations from the recon aircraft 53rd squadron revealed winds not any stronger than 25 mph at the surface along with a minimum central pressure of 1010 millibars.

Since the afternoon recon run over this system, thunderstorms have greatly diminished for the time being. There is a good possibility that thunderstorms could pop up once again over this system later tonight with the noctural effects we typically see in the tropics. However we got some problems as far as tropical development is concerned. First problem is subsidence over the western and southwestern portions of this broad low level circulation. Second problem is a shortwave aloft approaching rapidly from the west, thus making conditions aloft more hostile for development because of the strong southwesterly shear that is expected. Another problem is this is running out of time with respect to land and moving more quickly towards the north. As a result of all of those scenarios, tropical development chances are definitely not looking very high. Could this become a depression or a weak tropical storm???? Possibly, but the chances are diminishing for that possibility and I would not be surprised at all if this was just a disturbance throughout it's entire life given what was described above.

Regardless to what happens though, the key threat and we've been indicating this all along is very heavy rain along the entire gulf coast. Sea Breezes combined with the effects from this broad low pressure area will likely result in heavy rains in many spots along the entire Gulf Coast with 3-6 inches or more in many areas. In fact southern Louisiana is under a flood watch including in New Orleans for later tomorrow into Tuesday as heavy rains run into a very wet saturated ground. The area of highest flood threat appears to be from New Orleans into Gulfport and Mobile where flooding has been an issue in recent weeks. But with seabreezes occurring over Florida and Texas, seabreeze thunderstorms could develop again on Monday and Tuesday promoting a very heavy rain threat. There is also some threat for rip currents, which swimmers and surfers need to watch along the Gulf coast.

This system will continue to be closely monitored. However chances for tropical development are not looking great at this time. Any thoughts on this from anyone else here is definitely welcomed.

Jim

[Stormcenter]

Very good post, thank you.

[Dean4Storms]

From what we are seeing tonight one can't help but agree with you. For it to form into a TC it needs continuous convection in and around the center and that has certainly wained this evening and then like you point out many of the other factors are coming up against it. Good analysis!