Organizing or not?

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:12 pm

Here are a couple of observations. The "center" is still moving north and
a burst of convection is now forming over it. Is this the beginning of something? Is this it's final strengthening chance? Who knows.

Click on link below (thanks dean4storms for the link)

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

Matthew5 · #2 Postby **Matthew5** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:14 pm

Lets hope that convection forms right over that center!

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:16 pm

This is what we have been waiting since this afternoon the system to do, redevelop its convective area. Let see tomorrow if persists. If so, I believe the RECON plane will find TD-1.

#4 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:18 pm

HURAKAN wrote:This is what we have been waiting since this afternoon the system to do, redevelop its convective area. Let see tomorrow if persists. If so, I believe the RECON plane will find TD-1.

I mean, today.

Matthew5 · #5 Postby **Matthew5** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:20 pm

It is doing it much earlier that is promising in a since of tropical cyclone development. You can also see a cirulation under that new area of convection. I believe if this go's more east it will be going with the shear which will make it more favable. So something could very well be starting.

Derecho · #6 Postby **Derecho** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:45 pm

Pressures are RISING at every bouy in the GOM anywhere near it.

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Jun 13, 2004 11:58 pm

I've (we've) seen pressures rise before they being there fall with these disturbances.

Derecho · #8 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:01 am

ColdFront77 wrote:I've heard barometric pressure reports rise before they being there fall with these disturbances.

That's subsidence somewhat away from the outer edge of actual strong hurricanes.

Pressures rising at all the buoys near the supposed center (QS now doesn't have an LLC) doesn't bode well for the development of this thing.

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:04 am

I see what you mean, but I am talking about these systems in general. Pressure rises before they fall. I by no means am saying that is going to happen here, but if it happened in the past, it can happen again.

#10 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:06 am

Derecho wrote:
ColdFront77 wrote:I've heard barometric pressure reports rise before they being there fall with these disturbances.

That's subsidence somewhat away from the outer edge of actual strong hurricanes.

Pressures rising at all the buoys near the supposed center (QS now doesn't have an LLC) doesn't bode well for the development of this thing.

But convection IS building as I type this and that's a positive in it's favor.

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:38 am

The convection continues to build and build around the so called "center" of this low pressure system.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 12:48 am

Stormcenter wrote:The convection continues to build and build around the so called "center" of this low pressure system.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... itype=irbw

Yep...now the convection will have to persist and not be sheared off within 6 hours. Shear will be gradually increasing.

Rainband · #13 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:30 am

Looks like those that said notta development get the Prize. Rain...just Rain :wink:

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:37 am

Rainband wrote:Looks like those that said notta development get the Prize. Rain...just Rain

You're right, rainband. Looks very pathetic out there this morning. We've yet to see one area of storms persist for more than 4-6 hours. It's never looked worse than it does now. Just a few squalls moving ashore today and tomorrow, that's all.

Look elsewhere for Alex.

#15 Postby **george_r_1961** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:49 am

It looks worse now at 6:45AM EDT then it did at midnight. I do not see any chance for development.

Thunder44 · #16 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:52 am

It got better organzied then you some of you all thought it would yesterday. I think it's less likely to develop now, but the NHC apparently thinks it still has a chance, they didn't cancel the recon flight this afternoon yet. If it doesn't develop today than that's it.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #17 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:10 am

I agree... it was more organzied than I thought it would get... but still far from depression status. The dynamics weren't there.

chadtm80 · #18 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:12 am

hehe.. Let it go guys.. You will have many more systems to call Alex before the actually are ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #19 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 7:22 am

chadtm80 wrote:hehe.. Let it go guys.. You will have many more systems to call Alex before the actually are

Ahhh... gotta love June.

#20 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 8:08 am

I do believe it has looked worse than now. I still don't think this will be ALex by no stretch of the imagination...but right now it has a weak circulation which is visible on the early Vis loops and on the sfc plots of the GOM. Pressures yesterday by recon were 1010 but now they are 1008-1009...plus some tropical storm force gusts are occuring well to the east of the center. The LLC is better off now than it was 24 hours ago...strictly because it is closer to the convection.

So...looks better now than then...pressures are lower and winds are a little higher...but it still will not be Alex....but a weak TD is not out of the question...there is a slight possibility of that now that the western LLC has been wiped out and the eastern LLC has become predominate.

Organizing or not?

Organizing or not?

But....

Still building....

Re: Still building....

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