Organizing or not?

[HURAKAN]

At least at this moment although not well organized it has lots of convection over the center. Maybe later today the RECON find a surprise, possibly, TD 1. We don't know, but surely is possible.

[wxman57]

At least at this moment although not well organized it has lots of convection over the center. Maybe later today the RECON find a surprise, possibly, TD 1. We don't know, but surely is possible.

Recon has been cancelled - there's nothing to investigate. Just a disorganized blob of storms with no clear LLC.

[Stormcenter]

At least at this moment although not well organized it has lots of convection over the center. Maybe later today the RECON find a surprise, possibly, TD 1. We don't know, but surely is possible.

Recon has been cancelled - there's nothing to investigate. Just a disorganized blob of storms with no clear LLC.

\

Hmmmmmmmmm, O.K.

[Air Force Met]

No...no need for recon. The LLC is clearly elongated and the shear will do a number on anything that wants to develop later today. Besides...there are so many ships, buoys and rigs in that part of the GOM that you have all the obs you need to keep an eye on it.

[HURAKAN]

NHC STILL BELIEVES IN POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT

[Stormcenter]

The Weather Channel just reported that it (the GOM mess) has become better organized in the last few hours. I know don't if that means anything though.

[Air Force Met]

It is better organized relatively speaking...but relative to what

Sfc organization is better off now than yesterday...but bottom line is this weak sfc low and elongated ne-sw trof will not do much because shear will be ever increasing over the next day and the window has been closed for Alex.

[HURAKAN]

Recon has been cancelled - there's nothing to investigate. Just a disorganized blob of storms with no clear LLC.

The RECON was cancelled but the NHC stated that if it was necessary they would send another RECON plane this afternoon. Let see what they decide to do.

[Stormcenter]

Is the mess in the GOM actually moving?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Rainband]

Doesn't look like it is very much. I think the y said slow mover..but thats a bit too SLOW

[Matthew5]

Convection wise it looks better in ever. In case of a closed cirulation. I will have to look at more data, but there doe's seem to be one at around 26 something north. Basicly I'm not given up intill it is dead!

[Wnghs2007]

If you look at a very high detailed vis loop you can see the "possible" with main inference on possible, LLC can be seen to the west of the main area convection. Which just confirms mosts peoples suspicion that there is some strong shear over the system. Which will impart empeed any development and hence this is dead. It will just produce very heavy rainfall and some gusty wind. No tropical depression or Tropical Storm though

[lilbump3000]

Its just sitting there not moving at all.

[Air Force Met]

Oh...there's a LLC...there is just no upper level support to deepen the system.

[Stormcenter]

Its just sitting there not moving at all.

Yep it's not moving. I'm curious to see what the NHC will say on their
next Tropical Update.

[HURAKAN]

Another graphic to show more of the same, rain, rain, and more rain. Let me tell you, if you are an amphibian, lives around or in water, and loves tropical rain, congratulations!!!

[Matthew5]

I have seen much worst being upgraded! Systems that where sheared badly, in hardly had a LLCC to speak of but this on the has deep convection is causing heavy rainfall and has a closed LLCC reported last night. With this convection in some buoy reports of 25 knots. This is very close in should never be discounted. There where a few tropical depressions last year that could only wise/dream they had what this has.

[HURAKAN]

Let me talk about a good combination:

If we were able to combine the low pressure system that developed in the Bahams with the disturbance in May and the convection that this system is showing now, we should would have TS Alex is a few minutes. But that is just impossible to do!

[vbhoutex]

You are correct Matthew. Visible imagery places a LLCC around 26.5n,93.5W, to the West of the main convection blob. For anything to happen with this system it will have to consolidate considerably which at this point it is not even acting like it is doing. As you stated, the shear is the culprit here thanks to the incoming SW trough to its' West.

As far as the map is concerned showing posssible TC development within 36 hours that is probably based on the cut off low expected to form to my SW near Corpus during that time frame and give us tons of rain also associated with the two systems as the current system spreads out along the coast with its copious amonts of tropical moisture.

[Matthew5]

I thought the basics of a tropical depression was a closed low level cirulation with 30 to 38 mph winds??? In this is in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just saying that there is going to be 10 inches of rain in areas of the Gulf coast. Because this is not going to move quickly. There is winds upwards of 35 knots on quickscats this morning, and 25 knot winds on some of the buoys. This system is as good as a tropical depression in the impact.