Organizing or not?

PTrackerLA · #41 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:34 am

VB, I just don't see a heavy rain event in storm for us. It looks like everything is staying east of Lafayette. I've read about the cut-off low but where is it? The gulf is very quiet west of the "blob". Do you have links to any forecast models that show where the heavy rain will come from? Currently it's overcast and very dreary with sprinkles...

#42 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:35 am

Matthew5 wrote:I thought the basics of a tropical depression was a closed low level cirulation with 30 to 38 mph winds??? In this is in the Gulf of Mexico. I'm just saying that there is going to be 10 inches of rain in areas of the Gulf coast. Because this is not going to move quickly. There is winds upwards of 35 knots on quickscats this morning, and 25 knot winds on some of the buoys. This system is as good as a tropical depression in the impact.

AGREE.

Matthew5 · #43 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:45 am

Here is the sample of the winds around this system.

42001 B 14 25.92 -89.68 104 156 170 25.3 29.1 6.2 6

3FZQ7 S 14 28.20 -88.50 112 68 240 18.1 - - -

TAML1 B 14 29.19 -90.67 102 354 90 13.0 15.9

It looks like the normal June lopsided tropical cyclone

Alison was one of them...

#44 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:53 am

those winds reports above are mph or knots?

Matthew5 · #45 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 9:59 am

Yes "Mph" sorry for that been up all night looking at this. But I think this is going to pop out of the blue like Alison.

lilbump3000 · #46 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:00 am

Well it certainly has the chance since its not moving.

#47 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:02 am

No one has disputed the fact that there will be at least TS strength winds in some of the storms in this system. That is almost a given with any heavy tstorm, much less a poorly organized low pressure system over tropical waters trying to organize. What I am saying is that it will not be at TD anytime soon unless things change significantly. Nor will I write it off till the center of low pressure is inland. As I have always said, ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICS. However, I do not see this system becoming Alex or even a TD. It is way too spread out. Definitely will be a big rainmaker for many areas of the South.

Matthew5 · #48 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:02 am

Mitchelle

#49 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:04 am

PTrackerLA wrote:VB, I just don't see a heavy rain event in storm for us. It looks like everything is staying east of Lafayette. I've read about the cut-off low but where is it? The gulf is very quiet west of the "blob". Do you have links to any forecast models that show where the heavy rain will come from? Currently it's overcast and very dreary with sprinkles...

Here ya go PT, from the Hou/Gal HWO:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-151200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-
GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-
WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
700 AM CDT MON JUN 14 2004

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE AREA...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED JUST
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO COLUMBUS LINE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD
EXPERIENCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. THERE IS A SMALL
PROBABILITY THAT SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

A DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. A HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF DISTURBANCE WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD WEST INTO TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH A SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND AND EXPAND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

Matthew5 · #50 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:07 am

Here is a cyclone that by these standards shoud not be?
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 34_G8L.jpg

Tropical depression 14
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 289_G8.jpg

There is so many!
This is 2001

#51 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:11 am

Matthew5 wrote:Here is a cyclone that by these standards shoud not be?
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 34_G8L.jpg

There is so many!

Agree.

#52 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:15 am

14/1145 UTC 25.7N 93.1W TOO WEAK 93

Our system goes back to "TOO WEAK" status.

#53 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:16 am

The text book definition is an area of low pressure with one closed isobar (at least) and warm core. In actuality many systems meet the text book definition each year but the NHC really only classifies system when they believe they will hang around for a while. They aren't going to classify something...even if it meets the criteria...if they believe it will be gone in 12 hours. It costs a lot of money and a lot of efforts to issue advisories on systems that will dissipate in less than a day. It's better to watch and wait to see if the thing will develop...and in this case...it won't. Although the NHC may suprise us and make it a TD...although I think the ods are they won't.

Wnghs2007 · #54 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:17 am

Well the NHC 11:30 Am update seems to sound a little more enthuiastic. The recon will go out or atleast they have taken if neccesary out.

892
ABNT20 KNHC 141510
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED...THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TUESDAY AS THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPS...A LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STATES FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO FLORIDA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

#55 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:22 am

Matthew, and everyone else trying to WISHCAST this system into existence, you can post every picture you care to of every disorganized called TD and it won't make a difference. The conditions are not there for one to form at this time. Each one is different and unless ALL of the CORRECT conditions come together at the right time it will not happen. I am as excited as anyone by the possibilities of a TC forming, but I will not stand by and make statements about it is one and they should call it, etc. LIKE I SAID ABOVE-NO ONE WILL DISPUTE THERE COULD/WILL BE TS FORCE WINDS IN SOME OF THE SQUALLS COMING SHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT A TC, TD, OR TS!!!!!

There will have to be a lot of things change for NHC to call this one, even with it "threatening" the upper GOM coastal areas!!!

#56 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:25 am

vbhoutex wrote:Matthew, and everyone else trying to WISHCAST this system into existence, you can post every picture you care to of every disorganized called TD and it won't make a difference. The conditions are not there for one to form at this time. Each one is different and unless ALL of the CORRECT conditions come together at the right time it will not happen. I am as excited as anyone by the possibilities of a TC forming, but I will not stand by and make statements about it is one and they should call it, etc. LIKE I SAID ABOVE-NO ONE WILL DISPUTE THERE COULD/WILL BE TS FORCE WINDS IN SOME OF THE SQUALLS COMING SHORE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT A TC, TD, OR TS!!!!!

There will have to be a lot of things change for NHC to call this one, even with it "threatening" the upper GOM coastal areas!!!

The NHC still believes there is a possibility. That should mean something to everyone on this board. Aren't they the "experts"?

lilbump3000 · #57 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:25 am

Ok you dont have to get MAD because people are -removed-. They can express there opinion, and if they thing its going to develop, will then let them think that. You saying its not going to develop, well then let you think that.

Matthew5 · #58 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:28 am

I'm not -removed- just standing this system against other system. Saying that this system will not develop is just as bad as saying it will? Not saying your saying that. But the recon will tell the story like it normally doe's. :roll:

#59 Postby **MGC** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:39 am

The NHC does have some credibility issuses when it comes to classifing weak systems. Seems every season there has been a questionable upgrade the past few years. Who knows what they will do? currently, the system in the GOM in my opinion, is not a depression. It is most likely a STD currently as most of the convection and winds are displaced to the east of the LLCC. The system still has a chance of being upgraded. My greatest concern is its slow drift which will pump abundant moisture inland.......MGC

Matthew5 · #60 Postby **Matthew5** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 10:49 am

Alison also looked like this don't it when it was first forming?

Organizing or not?

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