Organizing or not?

[chadtm80]

Mathew.. Take a couple of aleve and CALM down

[Rainband]

here ya go

[vbhoutex]

My greatest concern is its slow drift which will pump abundant moisture inland.

As it is my greatest concern. That is what everyone needs to be focusing on, not trying to turn this into something it isn't.

And to the ones that are continuing to argue about it, go ahead and argue about it. -removed- and expressing opinions are two different things. I have stated my opinions, based on my meteorological knowledge, not based on what I would love to happen. Like I have stated before, I love a good tropical cyclone to work with and forecast as much as the next person, but I will not stand by and watch people make statements about something that is not there or read something into statements made by official agencies when they are not saying it. I have, over the years, had enough of people who are not as knowledgeable as some becoming frightened by rash statements by those who think they know what is going on or wish something is going on. I literally have had people im, pm, email me over the years freaking when someone makes a brash statement(wishcasts)about something that isn't there, because they don't know who to believe and come to places like STORM2K that have good reputation of being on an even keel when TC's threaten for confirmation of what is really going on. That is why I am like I am when everyone tries to wish a storm into existence. I know, better than almost anyone on this site(due to my 48 years on the Gulf coast)how quickly and how wildly things can change in the tropics. I NEVER SAY NEVER when it comes to the tropics, but I am realistic when I look at all the parameters and they tell me it isn't going to happen soon, if at all. Now, I am down off my soap box.

[Air Force Met]

Actually..Allison did not look like this. It had some anticyclonic outflow over it...even though the center was exposed. This has 40 kts of southerly shear over it. Big difference. The two systems are not really that similiar. I was here in Houston when Allison came in...and was watching it all morning. I was screaming that they were ignoring it because of how it looked. This one, however, I am not all that worked up about. Again...a TD is not out of the question. A TS however...not gonna happen UNLESS it is some sort of subtropical development due to the divergence aloft from the trof. NOtice the tail to the SW...the system is not being enhanced by truly tropical mechanisms.

[Matthew5]

Why I'm know am I wishcaster? For pointing this system to other Gulf systems through out the years. In saying that it still doe's have a possible chance for tropical cyclone formation. I'm not saying that it will form but just saying that there is a chance when the recon comes out I been looking at this storm in alot of data so this is not based on a wishcast.

I'm sorry chadt for trying to point out that this system is not totally dead. I will calm down because I don't went to cause trouble. I was just trying to make a case.


Here is Alison when it was first upgrade. http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropica ... 156_G8.jpg

[Air Force Met]

Matthew...I have a small request. Is there anyway you can spell check your posts? I am having a little bit of difficulty reading your posts due to mis-spelled words. I think you may make a more valid point if the spelling was better. If English is your second language...then a spell checker would really help. Otherwise...in order for someone to take you more serious...you need to communicate better...and on a forum such as this that comes from better spelling...which shows that you are taking some time and putting some thought into your arguements for or against something. It is one thing to make a spelling error here and there but many of your posts are chock full of them and it makes them difficult to read and comprehend.

[Stephanie]

Matthew - there is a "Spelchek" button at the bottom of the text box next to "Preview" and "Submit". I have a tendency to type fast and sometimes my letters get switched around. I should probably use it more often myself.

[Suzi Q]

My greatest concern is its slow drift which will pump abundant moisture inland.

As it is my greatest concern. That is what everyone needs to be focusing on, not trying to turn this into something it isn't.

And to the ones that are continuing to argue about it, go ahead and argue about it. -removed- and expressing opinions are two different things. I have stated my opinions, based on my meteorological knowledge, not based on what I would love to happen. Like I have stated before, I love a good tropical cyclone to work with and forecast as much as the next person, but I will not stand by and watch people make statements about something that is not there or read something into statements made by official agencies when they are not saying it. I have, over the years, had enough of people who are not as knowledgeable as some becoming frightened by rash statements by those who think they know what is going on or wish something is going on. I literally have had people im, pm, email me over the years freaking when someone makes a brash statement(wishcasts)about something that isn't there, because they don't know who to believe and come to places like STORM2K that have good reputation of being on an even keel when TC's threaten for confirmation of what is really going on. That is why I am like I am when everyone tries to wish a storm into existence. I know, better than almost anyone on this site(due to my 48 years on the Gulf coast)how quickly and how wildly things can change in the tropics. I NEVER SAY NEVER when it comes to the tropics, but I am realistic when I look at all the parameters and they tell me it isn't going to happen soon, if at all. Now, I am down off my soap box.

Fine, I'll get on mine. I have spent the past three or four days checking this board regularly to get as much information as possible regarding the "thing" in the Gulf. I've spent the majority of that time trying to sort through the constant bickering and garbage that people are posting in regards to the "thing". I'm absolutely amazed at the amount of -removed-, complete disregard for facts, and others that WILL NOT GET A GRIP over this little piece of nothing blob. I have always been an avid tropical weather watcher, as well as any severe storms and can understand TO AN EXTENT some folk's enthusiasm. But there have been (in my opinion) entirely TOO MANY POSTS that aren't even discussion, but simply arguing COMMON METEOROLOGICAL SENSE. It has gotten to the point of ridiculous. This is June folks, June. Not August. Yes, Allison came through in June, the set-up was different. There are ACTUAL METEOROLOGISTS on this board, combined with FUTURE METEOROLOGISTS and those that have done EXTENSIVE INDIVIDUAL RESEARCH and these folks' opinions and knowledge are not to dismissed. Please, for the love of Mike, let's try and keep things in perspective. This is not an Andrew, an Opal, a Carla, it's NOT EVEN A NAMED STORM. My appreciation to David, Mike Watkins, Stormsfury and our prof. mets on here for continuing to try and pound some reason into the less-levelheaded ones during this NON-EVENT. Geesh...............yes, I know this could be construed as a "flame" post, but it my opinion, it's warranted. Ok, I'll come down off of mine now.

[Rainband]

Excellent Posts Suzi and David. I agree. There are many members here trying to learn. The experts and experienced members information is meant to teach us all and guide us in making future observations. While everyones comments are always welcomed, when it's obvious to the experienced members and forecasters of this board a certain "system" is behaving a certain way and those observations are based on scientific data..It's best for us to sit back and listen ,watch and learn. The season is just beginning folks ..I understand we are all passionate about these systems. Lets all try to learn from those who do know whats going on instead of arguing what could be going on With that being said Bring on the Storms!!!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

if it sits and spins then yes a t.s.alex will be here hen but only if that happen for 24hrs or less give or take but a t.d.#1 will form i know that much

[Suzi Q]

And you base this on what? Your years of study? A specific model that should be given 100% credibility over another? Your crystal ball? Your direct line to "Maker of Tropical Weather"? Show me your credentials. Give me some verifiable data that makes you 100% sure. Please, ENLIGHTEN ME.

[Thunder44]

All I have to say is that NHC would not send a plane out there if they didn't think there was any Tropical Cyclone out there. They know better that system doesn't have to look perfect to be a TC. Not being a TC would not make this a "non-event" because even if it was a TC, the end result would still probably be the same. It is just a matter of classification. Heavy, flooding rains, possible tornadoes, and maybe a bit windy. That to me whether a tropical storm or not, is always an "event" to me.

[Wnghs2007]

Ok calm down guys. This thing is not going to develop. I mean heck look at it now. It looks like a front, no spin no nothin. Oh and from what I heard. mine you these are not credible sources and they wish not to be mentioned but they said the recon is most likely going to be canceled. Sorry. Not this time folks. Come on and just wait with me. I am sure in a month or two we will have had are first storm

[Air Force Met]

if it sits and spins then yes a t.s.alex will be here hen but only if that happen for 24hrs or less give or take but a t.d.#1 will form i know that much

Not sure what you are looking at...the upper level winds are not favorable at ALL for the next 48 hours.

[Suzi Q]

[Wnghs2007]

:notworthy:

LOL @ Suzi. Yeah this system is done for. NEXT!!!!LOL See ya tomorrow when the frontal system up north in the north atlantic is about to spawn a supposed storm. J/K.

[elw]

What this area of convection is going to do is produce alot of (much needed) heavy rainfall over the parched areas of the southeast over the next 48 hours.

[Anonymous]

It's a surface trough, and not really tropical in nature. It may have winds borderline strong enough, but that doesn't automatically make it a TD if it lacks mostly barotropic characteristics and a clear-cut LLC.