High & Increasing Shear? (useless, pointless thread!!)

[ColdFront77]

At least we can use this thread to monitor the wind shear and wind shear tendency no matter what happens.

The upper level wind shear map in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico indicates dark colors which represents winds speeds between 0 and 20 knots, this is obviously far better for tropical development than if they were 20+ knots.

The CURRENT wind shear tendency is still decreasing, too.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 141812
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
212 PM EDT MON JUN 14 2004

.SHORT TERM (TNGT-WED)...UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE REFLECTION OVER
NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST TUESDAY THEN
BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS EACH DAY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. EXPECT
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NOT QUITE AS FAR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL SET UP THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ON TUESDAY FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS AND MINOR FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE
SOME ON WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE EAST NORTHEAST...WITH BEST CHANCES OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER COASTAL COUNTIES.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST AND WILL
ONLY MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-MON)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING BUILD OVER THE
REGION WITH FLOW REMAINING GENERALLY S/SE. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES
OVER THE STATE WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ENHANCING THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO THE MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS STAY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY
AS RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS
AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 75 92 76 92 / 30 70 30 60
FMY 74 92 75 92 / 30 70 30 60
GIF 74 93 75 93 / 30 50 30 50
SRQ 74 90 75 90 / 30 70 30 60
BKV 72 92 73 92 / 30 70 30 60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PRC
LONG TERM...JLC

[Rainband]

Because according to that discussion this won't enter the eastern GOM. It's drifting west!!

[Rainband]

Edit ** You were referring to the Central GOM too. Sorry!!

[ColdFront77]

Sorry, Johnathan... deleted my question you answered.

If I bring up what I brought up last year I will be questioned and accused and more obvious is the ULL in the western Gulf nudging the system more eastward, rather than westward at the current time.

Different things can still happen with this system as it continues to only move northward at 5 to 10 mph.

[ColdFront77]

Edit ** You were referring to the Central GOM too. Sorry!!

I am referring to the wind shear in the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the disturbance is currently located in the central Gulf.

[Rainband]

Sorry, Johnathan... deleted my question you answered.

If I bring up what I brought up last year I will be questioned and accused and more obvious is the ULL in the western Gulf nudging the system more eastward, rather than westward at the current time.

Different things can still happen with this system as it continues to only move northward at 5 to 10 mph.

Only time will tell

[southerngale]

It's drifting WEST? I thought it was moving north toward Louisiana.

Unfortunately, I can't sit here and read every thread right now.

[ColdFront77]

It's drifting WEST? I thought it was moving north toward Louisiana.

Unfortunately, I can't sit here and read every thread right now.

Yes, the Tropical Prediction Center says it is moving northward at 5 to 10 mph.

There is more of a chance of an easterly movement, than a westerly one.

[Rainband]

Thats just what came from my local discussion. They aren't set in stone kelly!!

[southerngale]

Ok, but why did NWS in Tampa Bay say it will drift westward as high pressure builds in from the east then?

[southerngale]

I know Johnathan...that's a big difference from north or east though. lol

[lilbump3000]

My local met also said that high pressure will start to build in from florida.

[ColdFront77]

The high is more ridging southwestward and/or westward, not building; because it is located off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast.

I assume they mean the high is going to push the lows westward, doesn't make much sense.

The high is centered off the New England/Mid-Atlantic coast. The core of the high has a pressure of 1022, maybe 1024 millibars.

[Rainband]

From what I have learned the systems travel the periphery of the high clockwise if the high builds east over florida this in combination with the feature over texas would cause the system to drift west then Northwest.

[ColdFront77]

The perify of the high would be northward and then eventually eastward into the United States along the north-central Gulf coast.

As I said above, this high is ridging and is still located off the Atlantic seaboard. I heard on NOAA Weather Radio last night that this high will be a Bermuda High, too.

[Suzi Q]

Kelly, per the NWS discussion here, this is EXACTLY what they are predicting-that the residual moisture AND the MLC will move westward INCREASING our rain chances beginning late this evening and continuing through Wednesday. Yesterday they were saying there was a strong possibility it would remain parked over us, leaving us with a significant amount of rain.

Check http://www.skywarn-texas.org under forecast discussion. Now as to whether this will actually occur, we'll have to wait and see. I have significant thunder and lightning here now, but undoubtedly NOT related to the gulf thing.

[ColdFront77]

If the high off the U.S. does indeed set itself up over/near Bermuda, thus having a Bermuda High becoming established..... that would put a southwest flow in the Gulf sooner rather than later.

[vbhoutex]

From what I have learned the systems travel the periphery of the high clockwise if the high builds east over florida this in combination with the feature over texas would cause the system to drift west then Northwest.

Correct Johnathan, to a point. It will ride the periphery of the high which is building/ridging in as stated. Also a Shortwave is coming in from the West as depicted in the maps that Tom posted and the brighter colors to the West of the blues and decreasing shear he noted will be coming further East and between that building SWerly shear and the circulation around the high building in the system should make "landfall" somewhere in LA.

[southerngale]

Ok, thanks Suzi and all. I noticed our rain chances were high through Thursday. I thought this was what one of the local NWS discussions said yesterday but when folks were saying it was moving east or northeast, I figured things just changed.