Not dead yet.

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:08 pm

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on June 14, 2004

for the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

the broad low pressure area located over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico remains poorly organized as it moves slowly northward.
However there is still a slight potential for development during
the next 24 hours. A reconnaissance aircraft will investigate
tomorrow morning...if required. This system is accompanied by an
area of rainfall extending from Louisiana eastward to Florida and
Georgia.
A westward-moving tropical wave located about 700 miles
east-southeast of the Windward Islands is producing showers and a
few thunderstorms. There are no signs of tropical cyclone
development.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected through
Tuesday.
Forecaster Lawrence

lilbump3000 · #2 Postby **lilbump3000** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:09 pm

Investigate it tomorrow, well i like to know when the system is going to move inland.

PTrackerLA · #3 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:10 pm

Ain't gonna be nothin to develop tomorrow, this system is DEAD and now it needs a towel!

Thunder44 · #4 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:15 pm

I don't know what NHC is doing now. By tomorrow morning the storm will probably be inland. I no longer think this will develop, but since the NHC still think it still can, I be following it.

ColdFront77 · #5 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:31 pm

At 11:30 AM Central Time, the "main" low was centered near 26.1°N 92.6°W, which puts it approximately 325 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana.

The Tropical Prediction Center said the system is moving northward at 5 to 10 mph. So, say it moves an average speed of 7.5 mph and it does
indeed continue just about due northward, it wouldn't reach the Lafayette area for another 43 hours and 20 minutes... after 11:30 AM Central Time.

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:45 pm

Most of the convection will be inland tomorrow and they're being cautious...it's as simple as that. Sure, there will be a TD or TS force winds in some of those squalls, but this is far from a classic TC. If it weren't for the proximity to land, the NHC would likely be downplaying it a lot more.

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:46 pm

Yes indeed, this is far from a classic TC.

GalvestonDuck · #8 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:48 pm

Pushing up daisies, bereft of life, flown the coop, kicked the bucket, and all those silly-isms from the Dead Parrot sketch.

This storm is dead!

Gosh, I always wanted to say that.

Is it really dead or just nailed to the perch?

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:50 pm

Ok Stormcenter...you and a few others have knowingly refused to listen to TWW, SF, (etc) and I over the past week on this. I know you've been just dying for us to bust. But it's under poor shearing conditions, very limited amount of time, and far from being a tropical cyclone...I can almost guarantee that recon plan will be canceled as this is becoming clear to anyone that it's not going to develop. I think you're in denial. :lol:

chadtm80 · #10 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:57 pm

Thanks SC.. And just a BTW we are working on the "issues" here ;-)

I hope to see some apologies here to those that deserve them.. And I defiantly hope some have learned there lessons. Or it will be a short season for some at s2k

#11 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:57 pm

I'm really not in denial. I was just posting what the NHC said in their 5:30EDT update.

ColdFront77 · #12 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 4:58 pm

Supercane wrote:Ok Stormcenter...you and a few others have knowingly refused to listen to TWW, SF, (etc) and I over the past week on this. I know you've been just dying for us to bust. But it's under poor shearing conditions, very limited amount of time, and far from being a tropical cyclone...I can almost guarantee that recon plan will be canceled as this is becoming clear to anyone that it's not going to develop. I think you're in denial.

How can you currently bust with the current goings-on in the central Gulf of Mexico?

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 14, 2004 5:08 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Thanks SC.. And just a BTW we are working on the "issues" here I hope to see some apologies here to those that deserve them.. And I defiantly hope some have learned there lessons. Or it will be a short season for some at s2k

Thanks, Chad.

Stormcenter wrote:I'm really not in denial. I was just posting what the NHC said in their 5:30EDT update.

If this somehow becomes a weak TD before coming ashore, I'll give you the credit you deserve for being so persistently against our no development call. Even though I think that's out of the question.

Not dead yet.

Not dead yet.

I'm really not

Re: I'm really not

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