Convection moving off of Florida

[ColdFront77]

For what it's worth, convection that developed along and/or east of the tropical disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico is moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the very low upper level wind shear... also decreasing in that area, as well.


Gulf of Mexico Infrared Loop

[HURAKAN]

Those are normal thunderstorms that usually forms in the afternoon and in a few hours they would dissipate.

[ColdFront77]

The chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms over Florida dissipating offshore (both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts) isn't as high as it is over the peninsula.

The activity over the Florida peninsula is associated with the tropical disturbance in the central Gulf. The Tropical Weather Outlook from the Tropical Prediction Center has mentioned this in their late morning and late afternoon statements.

Also, anytime convection develops -- in this case due to the west and east coast seabreezes -- convection can and sometimes does develop into a tropical system.

[Josephine96]

We finally had rain for the 1st time since Thursday

[elw]

Most of that convection that your talking about, Tom, is related to the Diurnal cycle, and the result of convergence/lift along the sea breeze boundaries.

It's currently being enhanced by an area of upper-level Divergence over the central and northern part of the state.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8dvg.GIF

Remember that areas of pronounced low-level convergence below upper-level divergence are particularly favorable for strong lift.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/surface/SOUTH- ... NE_23Z.gif

Thunderstorms will be heavy rain producers with high PW in place, and relatively weak flow aloft.

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_ETA_ATMOS_PPW_12HR.gif
http://198.63.55.43/CONUS_ETA_BNDLYR-6K ... R_12HR.gif

Expect more of the same tomorrow Afternoon and Evening.

[Josephine96]

I like the rain.. It definitely cools things off here..

[ColdFront77]

Most of that convection that your talking about, Tom, is related to the Diurnal cycle, and the result of convergence/lift along the sea breeze boundaries.

It's currently being enhanced by an area of upper-level Divergence over the central and northern part of the state.

Remember that areas of pronounced low-level convergence below upper-level divergence are particularly favorable for strong lift.

Thunderstorms will be heavy rain producers with high PW in place, and relatively weak flow aloft.

Expect more of the same tomorrow Afternoon and Evening.

I did mention that I understand the activity I experienced this afternoon was due to the seabreeze boundaries.

I would of hoped my thoughts on this were more logical, but I guess not... we've always heard that convection that enters waters during the Hurricane season can and does cause tropical development.

Seabreeze boundaries are sort of like "real cold fronts" -- the shower and thunderstorm activity that frontal systems produce can lead to a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

[elw]

So far today (through 6pm) Jacksonville has only picked up about .08 Inches of rain. A far cry from yesterday's 6+ Inches.

Most of the heavy rain so far today has fallen along I-95 between Hinesville Georgia and the FL/GA border.

[elw]

I did mention that I understand the activity I experienced this afternoon was due to the seabreeze boundaries.

I would of hope my thoughts on this were more logical, but I guess not... we've always heard that convection that enters waters during the Hurricane season can and does cause tropical development.

Sea-breeze boundaries are sort of like "real cold fronts" -- the shower and thunderstorm activity that frontal systems produce can lead to a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.

Don't worry, your on the right track.

Sometimes convection which travels over water, that is associated with an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) or an MCV that can sustain it's self, can develop tropically. But other environmental parameters (weak shear, upper ridging, warm SSTs...) must be present for development to occur or else it won't happen.

Tonight's convection over Florida related to the sea-breezes will slowly diminish over the next few hours as the boundary layer continues to stabilize.

Sea breeze boundaries are similar to cold fronts in the way that they separate cooler ocean air from the warmer air over land, where the cool air from the ocean over the ocean undercuts and forces the warmer air over land upward, helping to initiate convection. the temperature gradient causes a pressure gradient to form (as defined the by the ideal gas law), and the resultant thermal circulation helps to initiate convection along the sea breeze front.

[ColdFront77]

There is weak shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical disturbance not too far to the west (the convection across Florida today was enhanced by this activity), there has been mention by the National Weather Service and here of an upper level low over the (eastern) Gulf of Mexico and SSTs are in the low to mid 80's across the central and eastern Gulf.

[elw]

There is weak shear over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, the tropical disturbance not too far to the west (the convection across Florida today was enhanced by this activity), there has been mention by the National Weather Service and here of an upper level low over the (eastern) Gulf of Mexico and SSTs are in the low to mid 80's across the central and eastern Gulf.

Today's convection was enhanced somewhat by the tropical disturbance, and yesterday the thunderstorms were enhanced by a s/w which was responsible for helping to generate the convection that led to the over 6 inches of rain at Jacksonville. Tonight's convection over the state will not develop tropically.

[ColdFront77]

I know the convection over the state won't develop tropically. My whole point of this thread was the convection that was moving into the Gulf last night theoretically had the potential to develop based on passed occurrences.

[The Cape Cod Storm]

okay then