Barometer Bob's Area of Interest

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:28 pm

Area of Interest for the Atlantic Hurricane Basin
For June 15, 2004
updated at 9:00pm/et
by
Barometer Bob Brookens
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Area of Interest Update!

No Tropical Cyclone development expected in the short term.
But keep an eye on the tropical wave located near 12.0N/57.0W. This wave is actually interacting with a weak TUTT. With the shear keeping the wave from becoming even more organized then it did today, we will have to monitor it closely later Wednesday and during the day Thursday as it moves into the Caribbean and out of the strong shear.
In the Dvorak IR4 Storm Floter Loop you can clearly see the circulation near 12N, plus the surface flow westward, and the shear moving from SW to NE.
The Caribbean Islands will receive lots of rain from this wave. But the models aren't showing any development later in the forecast periods. This is due to the shear.
We will be watching yet another wave on the heals of this one later in the week.
Plus, the models hint at a mid/upper level low pressure just east of the Bahama's late in the weekend, and early next week. We will be watching, but the upper level enviroment remains hostile west of 50W in the Tropical Atlantic. East of 50W conditions are favorable, but the SST's are marginal. It's just too early for a Cape Verde system to get wound up, but we could get a surprise!!!
-----------------------------------------------------------
HURAKAN:
I HAVE A QUESTION FOR EVERYONE: ARE WE IN JUNE? BECAUSE TROPICALLY SPEAKING IT DOESN'T SOUND LIKE!!!!

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:34 pm

We really aren't seeing anything unusal in terms of activity...yet. All the convection assiocated w/ the tropical wave in the Gulf was being enhanced by an upper low and a shortwave trough. This wave is being sheared and will in all likelyhood dissipate in a few days. Also remember that it is normal to have a 50% chance of a June storm any given year and we haven't had one yet.

#3 Postby **bevgo** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 8:59 pm

The first storm is really going to be exciting on this board if the past disturbance was any indication. Looking forward to the first excitment!

#4 Postby **george_r_1961** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:23 pm

This is typical June tropical weather...lots of promising looking blobs but no development.

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 10:37 pm

Wind shear is present but doesn't look so bad that it would rip a wave to shreads...As Bob and the NHC both said, the wave became a little better organized today. Shear is not forecast to get any stronger ahead of the wave and according to AVN Model. should become favorable in the Caribbean in 36-48 hrs...

Shear has generally decreased as opposed to 24 hours ago

Link to movie page http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-sht.html

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 15, 2004 11:53 pm

Look how it is increasing in the Central and Eastern Caribbean.

Barometer Bob's Area of Interest

Barometer Bob's Area of Interest

First Tropical storm

Who is online