Wrn NE/KS will light up soon...

[Brett Adair]

Looks like the ML jet max is about to eject out ahead of the weak wave. Deep layer shear to 55 knots coupled with the steepe lapse rates to 9 C/Km near the triple point will aid in kicking off strong/severe storms in an organized fashion within the next few hours. 0-3 Km shear values of 300+ m*2/s*2 look favorable for tornado development with ROAB soundings showing above 30 knots of low level shear. Damaging winds and Large hail will be the primary threats in the region with tornadic potential being more isolated in nature. The convection will clusterize and speed up as it heads towards Omaha and Topeka later tonight as directional shear weakens. Increased speed shear suggests damaging bow echo potential will increase through the evening hours.

[Allexpert Mike]

Cold pool with H5 temps dipping down into -11 to -12C is leading to the steep lapse rates,,,,,,,,,,,,,also were gonna see damaging winds especially with the well separated downdraft/updraft will see threat for downburst with H8 dd at around 6C. H7 dry air intrusion is more so going to enhance wind potential with dd at around 15C.

Low level convergence will increase as sfc low comes closer increasing forcing and updraft potential.

CAP still looks to be strong (0z data) and I doubt instability will overcome it as we lose daytime heating soon,,,,1z data will be interesting to see what kinda of impact the cold pool,,,sbcape to 2500j/kg and possible downmixing had on the CAP strength......these storms will most likely become elevated and kill any tornadic potential. Descent low level stretching combined with strong shear will support tornadic potential if these storms remain sfc base.