Northern GOM............

[Dean4Storms]

Not shouting that anything will develop here, but this old trough is hanging over the northern GOM. Todays convection over the Gulf went well beyond it's normal period for this situation. Even the NWS in Tallahassee noted it here........

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH FROM THE
CEDAR KEY AREA TO THE NORTHWEST GULF...AND A WEAK PUDDLE OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ALONG THE BORDER OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND ALABAMA. VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND MISCELLANEOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. IT IS UNUSUAL FOR THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME OF DAY. IN FACT...TODAY HAS NOT BEEN A TYPICAL SOUTHWEST FLOW DAY SO
FAR. THICK CS EMANATING FROM THE STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING HAVE
PREVENTED MUCH OF THE HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION THAT NORMALLY OCCUR OVER
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE BIG BEND. FOR SOME REASON THE CU FIELD HAS BEEN
SUPPRESSED OVER THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.

&&


It is just about the only thing out there right now that is slightly getting my attention at the present. But here again, if anything was to become of it, it must increase in convection and maintain for a low to form.

[wxman57]

The convection is almost all over land, not water. Shear has been quite high across the northern Gulf, but it is decreasing a little now. We do have to monitor such systems, though. If the convection should begin to build over the water and if it should persist for 24+ hours, then the threat increases significantly.

[Dean4Storms]

Agree, that is all I'm saying. It is about the only slimmest possibility out there right now in the Atlantic Tropical region.

[Brent]

Well, at least it's something to keep an eye on.

[Hurricanehink]

Woohoo... finally, Tropical Blob number 5! Let's see what happens.

[Rainband]

Hardly a BLOB. If convection persists??? Well for that to happen we need some convection

[Lindaloo]

Gee it is not even over water. lol. Or am I missing something?

[Josephine96]

Ode to the blobs lol

[wxman57]

Gee it is not even over water. lol. Or am I missing something?

That's what I said, it's not over water. The convection is driven by afternoon heating, and there is no such heating over water. No blob.

[ColdFront77]

The convection is almost all over land, not water. Shear has been quite high across the northern Gulf, but it is decreasing a little now. We do have to monitor such systems, though. If the convection should begin to build over the water and if it should persist for 24+ hours, then the threat increases significantly.

With this said, especially the last sentence... makes enough sense to continue to watch this area for development no matter how slight at the present time.

[Dean4Storms]

The convection is almost all over land, not water. Shear has been quite high across the northern Gulf, but it is decreasing a little now. We do have to monitor such systems, though. If the convection should begin to build over the water and if it should persist for 24+ hours, then the threat increases significantly.

With this said, especially the last sentence... makes enough sense to continue to watch this area for development no matter how slight at the present time.

Exactly, some folks here evidently missed the point. There will be a series of convective complexes driven into the northern GOM along an old trough boundary and as a trough develops over the Great Lakes for the foreseeable future. Any one of these complexes could have the potential for future development as the UL winds over the northern half of the GOM become more favorable. This is a very climatogically favored area for just this kind of development when this type pattern evolves over the GOM. Just saying that this is the most interesting area for the time being to keep an eye on. Did I say more than that?

[Dean4Storms]

The guys at Eglin AFB seem to agree...........


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Current tropical weather synopsis (updated 21 June 1530z):
The tropics remain quiet. A string of easterly waves stretches from Africa to Central America. However, upper level winds across the tropics are shearing them all as they move westward. Atmospheric models show none of these waves developing this week. With nothing of interest at low latitudes, the only real chance of any tropical activity over the next several days may be a ?home grown? storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Sometimes early in the hurricane season, a front or other overland feature drifts out over the very warm waters of the Gulf. If conditions aloft are favorable?every few years one of these features evolves into a tropical system. At the moment, we do have the boundary that pushed through the Panhandle yesterday (which generated Sunday afternoon?s storms) lying out over the Gulf producing numerous thunderstorms over W-155, W-151 and areas west to the mouth of the Mississippi River. If this activity persists long enough over the same spot, it might be something to watch, but for now, none of it is showing any rotation. We?ll keep an eye on it.

[GalvestonDuck]

W-151 - Eglin AFB area
W-155 - FACSFAC Naval Air Station, Pensacola

W = "warning area"

Had to look it up because I didn't know...figured I'd share for anyone else who was lost also.