Stormless June for the EPAC. Is that Common?

[HURAKAN]

Although June is still a week from its end and a possible system may develop south of Acapulco in the next days or so I started to worder if it was normal or not to have a stormless June in the EPAC and I did my personal research. Official records of the EPAC in Unisys and "Eye of the Storm" start in 1949 until now, which is a 54-year period. In this frame of time 98 storms developed in the EPAC during the month of June, which in average is 1.8 storms per year, or 1 or 2 storms each year. During those 54 years (1949 - 2003), 50 years had storms in June and 4 not. The last year that EPAC didn't saw a tropical system in June was 1969, since that each year we have had at least a tropical storm in June. In conclusion, is not usual to see a stormless June in the EPAC, if we finish June without seeing a tropical system in that basin it will be the fifth time since records began.

[Anonymous]

Nope...last time the EPAC went without a June storm was 1969.

Edit: I didn't read your whole post at first...I guess you answered yourself.

[Valkhorn]

Nope...last time the EPAC went without a June storm was 1969.

I hope that's not a harbinger of things to come in the Atlantic.

[Hurricanehink]

Well.... when the Pacific is quiet, doesn't that mean the Atlantic is active? Like 1999, Pacific got up to I, while Atlantic got up to L, with many more undeveloping tropical depressions.

[MWatkins]

Nope...last time the EPAC went without a June storm was 1969.

I hope that's not a harbinger of things to come in the Atlantic.

Whelp...the 1969 season was quite active with 13 named storms...and the big one...hurricane Camille. I'm not saying that a Cat 5 is heading for Gulfport later this season...but there is an inverse relationship between the two seasons.

The least active EPAC season since then was guess when...1995.

MW

[wxman57]

I might also remind you that 1969 is an analog year for 2004, according to Dr. Gray.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... /june2004/

[SupertyphoonTip]

The four years which did not see EPAC storms in June are:

1953 (Atlantic had 4 major hurricanes, this year is also an analog year according to Dr. Gray)
1957 (Atlantic had Audrey, Cat. 4 landfall in eastern Texas)
1964 (Florida had 3 hurricane landfalls, 2 of them major. Season had 6 major hurricanes)
1969 (Atlantic had Camille, 175-knots max. winds, landfall in Mississippi)

This is something unusual, to not have any storms in June in the EPAC, but as you can see, the four years it did occur had something incredible in the Atlantic. If the month ends without a single tropical cyclone, it will be the fifth ever, and the first in 35 years. We may also have to keep our eyes open for something unusual in the Atlantic.

[Anonymous]

This is why analog years are so important and interesting. 1953 was also one of our five analogs and 1969 was well within the top 10 candidates.

[Brent]

Usually... if the EPAC has a below-normal season, the Atlantic will be above-normal, and vice versa. You can also look at El Nino years in the Atlantic(like 1997, AKA, very slow year, only got to G I think) and see increased activity in the EPAC.

1995 was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season ever I believe. Got down to T I believe, including Opal.

[Anonymous]

Usually... if the EPAC has a below-normal season, the Atlantic will be above-normal, and vice versa. You can also look at El Nino years in the Atlantic(like 1997, AKA, very slow year, only got to G I think) and see increased activity in the EPAC.

1995 was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season ever I believe. Got down to T I believe, including Opal.

The Atlantic is more active than normal if the EPAC is quiet in most cases fwiw.

[HURAKAN]

1995 was the busiest Atlantic hurricane season ever I believe.

According to official records of the NHC/TPC the busiest hurricane season in the Atlantic basin was 1933 with 21 tropical systems. The 1995 Hurricane Season as impressive as it was only ranks as #2 in the busy list.

HURRICANE SEASON 1933

INTERESTING TO NOTE
As I can see no real-Cape Verde system developed during 1933, or maybe they didn't note any system in the Central Atlantic, probably the season had more systems than what we know. At this point what we can only do is guess, the true would never we known, but after all, interesting and busy season.

[MWatkins]

As I can see no real-Cape Verde system developed during 1933, or maybe they didn't note any system in the Central Atlantic, probably the season had more systems than what we know. At this point what we can only do is guess, the true would never we known, but after all, interesting and busy season.

Chances are pretty good that several of those systems originated out by the Cape Verdes...but since there were no satellites back then the tracks got picked up when the systems were first encountered by ships.

I would be willing to bet there was a system or two that year that was probably a TS at least but went completely unobserved (like Tonya in 1995).

MW

[Stormsfury]

Correction to the 1969 information ... 1969 had 18 storms, but as MWatkins stated, only 13 of them were named ... there were 4 TC's that were not named, plus a brief subtropical storm in the Eastern GOM ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1969.txt

1851-2002 Best Track Plots ... I will soon get around to updating 2003's and as soon as I get the re-analysis information on the 1910-1930's from AOML (Chris Landsea), I'll update those as well ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... Track.html

1969 was one of my analog years as well (for seasons that had 16 or more TC's in a year). Also, however, note, that in 1969, there was a raging El Niño in progress. (Moderate to strong warm anomalies in the Equatorial EPAC, which clearly shows that the ATL theraline circulation and the ATL signals overwhelmed the EPAC signals that year ... TropicalWxWatcher and USAwx1 posted maps on another thread of the overall 1969 SST anomaly averages on another thread .. which the image on CDC is now out of date/time ) ...

But here's the thread ...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=31071

Usually... if the EPAC has a below-normal season, the Atlantic will be above-normal, and vice versa. You can also look at El Nino years in the Atlantic(like 1997, AKA, very slow year, only got to G I think) and see increased activity in the EPAC.

And that's because of the ATL signals overwhelming the EPAC signals (ATL theraline circ., mean longwave pattern, etc.)

According to official records of the NHC/TPC the busiest hurricane season in the Atlantic basin was 1933 with 21 tropical systems. The 1995 Hurricane Season as impressive as it was only ranks as #2 in the busy list.

1995 is tied with 1887 as the second most active ... 1887 was re-analyzed by the AOML HURDAT to have had 19 storms, not the previous 17 originally thought, and some data suggests there may have been one or two more suspect TC's, but that remains a mystery to this day.

On the flip-side, 1914 remains alone with 1 TC. 1890 was re-analyzed to have 5 TC's, not the 1 TC (hurricane) originally thought.

Chances are pretty good that several of those systems originated out by the Cape Verdes...but since there were no satellites back then the tracks got picked up when the systems were first encountered by ships.

I would be willing to bet there was a system or two that year that was probably a TS at least but went completely unobserved (like Tonya in 1995).

MW

I wouldn't be surprised one bit ... the 1910-1930's reanalysis project from AOML HURDAT should be completed sometime later this year, or early next year according to the last email I received from Chris Landsea...which also included that there were 10-12 more systems up for re-investigation in the 1851-1910 timeframe.

SF

[Valkhorn]

1969. I was only born in 1981 (my brother in 1975) so we both don't know what it's like to have experienced anything like Camille.

My parents on the other hand lived through it. My dad was well inland and my Mom was going to school in Hattiesburg, about 90 miles inland.

When you mention Hurricanes in this neck of the woods (central MS) you think of only two - Frederic in 1979, and Camille. Frediric made it to Meridian as a category 1 hurricane, and for somewhere this far inland that's very bad.

Camille didn't affect my home town that bad but it did give us a lot of wind and rain from what I recall. Jackson (which was right over the path) was dealt a pretty good blow.

Of course this doesn't remotely compare to what Camille did along the MS gulf coast.

The worst part is that in 1969 the gulf coast wasn't that populated in this part of the country. Right now in MS alone there are probably a good 200-300,000 people that live on or right near the MS gulf coast. Georges was a very close call, but I do remember that it wasn't as powerful as some of the more memorable storms that hit MS like Elena for example. But even Elena isn't even a wind-up for something like Camille.

Also of note, 1969 didn't have anything develop in the Atlantic until late July from what I looked up.

And since the east pac is so quiet, I do wonder how active the next season will be. Things could really start cooking in a month.

[HURAKAN]

As I can see no real-Cape Verde system developed during 1933, or maybe they didn't note any system in the Central Atlantic, probably the season had more systems than what we know. At this point what we can only do is guess, the true would never we known, but after all, interesting and busy season.

Chances are pretty good that several of those systems originated out by the Cape Verdes...but since there were no satellites back then the tracks got picked up when the systems were first encountered by ships.

I would be willing to bet there was a system or two that year that was probably a TS at least but went completely unobserved (like Tonya in 1995).

MW

Probably, another good examples will be Ernesto in 1994, and Nicole in 1998, and Lorenzo in 2000, and Peter in 2003, and many, many more.