late evening tropical update

[WXBUFFJIM]

A look at the tropics tonight shows some much quieter conditions as of late with little tropical development expected over the Atlantic Basin or the eastern Pacific. However there is some activity both brewing and waning in the western Pacific. Dianmu slammed into Japan with the hardest hit areas over the southern Islands of Japan where wind gusts were near 110 mph. Heavy rains and high waves were another issue with this storm system. A total of 5 people died both in Japan and in south Korea where the area near Seoul was hit with the remnants of this thing. 2 out of the 5 people were killed in south Korea. However 4 additional people were missing in south Korea. Thus the death toll with this storm may go higher as time goes on. Dianmu should be no more as it has become extratropical and the last advisory has been written on this storm system.

However there could be some tropical development of note on either side of a line from 15.2 north 145.0 east to 19.9 north, 139.3 east. The chances of a significant tropical cyclone developing in this region is quite good. METSAT imagery shows that the center of this system is located near 15.5 north, 144.8 west. Maximum sustained winds are 15-20 knots and the forward motion is toward the north northwest at nearly 7 mph.
The minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003 mb. Given the increased poleward outflow and increasing deep convection near this thing, I'm expecting development of a significant tropical cyclone over the next day or two in this region.

Elsewhere it's looking pretty quiet with broad areas of low pressure over the eastern Pacific with some convection offshore, but no tropical development. The Mexican Rivera is as quiet as could be tonight with little rain activity.

For the Gulf Of Mexico, the western half of the Gulf is looking dry tonight with subsidence resulting in drier air in the western Gulf. Meanwhile the eastern half of the Gulf is expected to be unsettle as an upper low retrogrades slowly westward over the next 24-36 hours.

The associated upper trough over the western Caribbean is bringing heavy showers and storms over Guatemala to Nicaragua for the Yucatan Peninsula. Meanwhile a trough over the central Caribbean and the upper low will move northwest tonight keeping some good dynamics and lify over Hispaniola where a tropical wave is generating showers and storms there tonight.

The Caribbean is being dominated by a ridge/trough/ridge pattern. No tropical development is expected in the Gulf or the Caribbean tonight through the next several days. Meanwhile the tropical Atlantic remains quite with a well defined anticyclone located east of the Lesser Antilles near 15n 55w. A second ridge is situated from the west coast of Africa near west Sahara extending to around 15n40w. A weak trough between 40 and 50w separates these two anticyclonic features. Once again with the ridge-trough-ridge-trough pattern across the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, this does not favor tropical development and no tropical development is expected for the next several days as convection is kept to a minimum. The subtropical Atlantic remains free of tropical development tonight.

Thus the only action of note in the tropics tonight remains in the western Pacific on either side of a line from 15.2 north 145.0 east to 19.9 north, 139.3 east. More updates on this system as warranted and another tropical update will be issued in the morning. Good night!

Jim

[MWatkins]

Good update Jim...I'll be keeping an eye on the WPAC system.

MW

[rainstorm]

thanks