TCFA Western Pacific...

[Typhoon_Willie]

Here is the text regarding the system about 120 nm north of Guam!


WTPN21 PGTW 230000
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 222351ZJUN04//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.2N8 145.0E0 TO
19.9N9 139.3E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE
DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 222330Z2 INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N1 144.8E7.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 15.5N1 144.8E7, APPROXIMATELY
120 NM NORTH OF GUAM, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A
FULLY EXPOSED WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE
LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED, IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE AND COULD POSSIBLY COUPLE WITH THE AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
GOOD DIFFLUENCE INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1003 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 240000Z6.//

[SupertyphoonTip]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

Good outflow and it just looks more organized, even though the center is fully exposed. I'd say this could be our next WPAC tropical cyclone!

[Aquawind]

NRL has it as a noname this morning.. looks like a player alrighty..