Upper Level Disturbance Activity

[ColdFront77]

I am actually getting some thunderstorms to my west this late night due to a upper level disturbance over the central Gulf of Mexico.

This feature is moving eastward and will cross the Florida peninsula in the next couple of days.


Click here to view Gulf of Mexico Water Vapor Loop

[vbhoutex]

Hey Tom!! See those Blobs in TX?? I'll be glad to send them your way!!!

[ColdFront77]

Sure, David. It is currently moving eastward...

[vbhoutex]

Unfortunately for our Florida friends our areas are moving NE and will probably miss Florida. Unfortunately for us the HPC has up to 12" of rain for our area by Sunday!!!! If you're good at lassoing grab a rope and take some of this!!!!

Hope that ULL kicks its' act up and helps you guys out!!!

[ColdFront77]

The movement of the activity across Mexico and the western Gulf is currently moving more easterly than northeasterly.

Portions of the peninsula has seen some heavy showers and thunderstorms with the seabreeze boundaries.

The activity was nearly stationary to 5 miles per hour a few days ago. The last couple of days storms have been moving 10 to 15 and 15 to 20 with the occassional 5 to 10 miles per hour, as well.

In any event, as of Tuesday evening, the rain chances (coverage of showers and storms) is 40% through this week.

[elw]

What your looking at on the Gulf of Mexico Water vapor loop Northwest of Cuba is little more than an upper-level circulation. You can see it pretty well in the 0z ETA analysis from this evening at 250 and 300mb.

And before the question comes up, I don't anticipate any tropical development from it.





Deep-layer ridging should build back over the region over the next few days. By 0z Friday the ETA has the 500mb ridge centered over the Bahamas. And a mean west to west-southwest 850-500mb flow over the northern part of the state, while the 850mb ridge axis bisects the center of the peninsula. The westerly deep-layer flow might keep the east coast sea breeze pinned up along the coast. We'll shall see what happens.





Don't know if you'll agree with me, but what I find pretty interesting is the strong and displaced cold vortex along the Southern shore of Hudson Bay. Very unusual for this time of year, and the block over Baffin Island.

[elw]

The covection ongoing over Southeast texas won't have alot of impact on our weather either.

[vbhoutex]

The covection ongoing over Southeast texas won't have alot of impact on our weather either.

UNFORTUNATELY!!! This is all riding more NE than E despite the fact the front that is draped across the South is providing the boundary for all the disturbances to ride along. We would love to send at least half of this to Florida!!

vbhoutexduck

[Rainband]

I got some good training rains last night, brief but topical and windy downpours. It was nice!! We aren't too dry here yet.

[ColdFront77]

There is no true established northward movement with this area of activity at this time. That doesn't mean it won't change.
I can only go by what I am looking at versus what you (David and elw) have mentioned.

[GalvestonDuck]

The covection ongoing over Southeast texas won't have alot of impact on our weather either.

UNFORTUNATELY!!! This is all riding more NE than E despite the fact the front that is draped across the South is providing the boundary for all the disturbances to ride along. We would love to send at least half of this to Florida!!

vbhoutexduck

Yeah, KY's been getting quite a bit of this too, from what my grandmother says. They don't need further flooding either.

[ColdFront77]

The covection ongoing over Southeast texas won't have alot of impact on our weather either.

UNFORTUNATELY!!! This is all riding more NE than E despite the fact the front that is draped across the South is providing the boundary for all the disturbances to ride along. We would love to send at least half of this to Florida!!

vbhoutexduck

The large area of showers and thunderstorms off the Mexico coast moving northeasterly (and especially if what may be east now continues long enough) will not totally miss Florida at the current time.

Obviously, what we observe now isn't neccesarily ultimately going to occur. Same goes with the current to future forecast, as well.

[GalvestonDuck]

The covection ongoing over Southeast texas won't have alot of impact on our weather either.

UNFORTUNATELY!!! This is all riding more NE than E despite the fact the front that is draped across the South is providing the boundary for all the disturbances to ride along. We would love to send at least half of this to Florida!!

vbhoutexduck

Yah, see...now you know how I felt that day I created my screen name.