Another update on the tropics

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the situation today reveals little development expected in the Atlantic except for heavy rains in Haiti and the Dominican Republic where they don't need it. There is also a disturbance in the eastern Pacific that could develop into a depression over the next day or two. But the bigger story is in the western Pacific with the development of a new tropical storm northwest of Guam.

At the present time, Tropical Storm Mindulle is located near latitude 16.7 north, longitude 142.6 east. Movement is towards the northwest at around 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next few days and Mindulle is forecast to become a typhoon in the next 48 hours or so. The question of the trackis still questionable for Japan. However at this time the Philippines and Taiwan appear to be out of the woods at this point. However this is an area to watch because indirect effects will be felt whether this thing hits or not. This will definitely be watched for sure over the next several days.

Further east into the eastern Pacific, an interesting feature today along the monsoon trough. The area I'm talking about is at around 13 north, 100 degrees west. Showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly increase in coverage and intensity just south of the Mexican coast. The latest satellite would suggest that this thing is taking on more of a curvature, possibly a cyclonic rotation. As a result of that, a depression could develop in the next day or two should convection persist near the center of this thing. This will also be watched.

Further west near 13 north, 115 west, a weak low pressure system of 1009 mb is nearing cooler waters. I don't expect much development from this. However with moderate to strong convection near the center of this system, this will need to be watched also. However it's not affecting any land area as it's out in the middle of no where. The bigger concern today is the storm system along the monsoon trough near 13 north, 100 west as it is near the Mexican coast and could develop over the next few days into a tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile into the Atlantic Basin, all is quiet today tropically speaking. An upper level disturbance continues to dominate the southeastern Gulf Of Mexico with some subsidence on the west side and showers and storms possible east of this system. No tropical development is expected with this as it's an unfavorable situation.

The only real show today is in Haiti and the Dominican Republic where showers and thunderstorms continue to be a problem in this region. This area seen that major flood in recent weeks and unfortunately more heavy rain from this tropical wave may just aggreviate the situation unfortunately for this area. As we've seen so far this season, we don't even need a depression or a storm to produce major deadly flooding rains as the case was in Haiti and the Dominican Republic earlier this year and also in northeast Brazil as well. With today's upper air disturbance over Haiti/Dominican Republic, no tropical development is expected. However as mentioned very heavy rain is not what they need there and unfortunately that's what is happening right now. The rest of the Subtropical and Tropical Atlantic is quiet today with nothing tropical to speak of.

Jim