severe wx outlook, dangerous day yesterday....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Severe weather threat continues today across the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley south and west towards the central Plains and the front range of the Rockies. Tomorrow the threat shifts eastward to the Middle Atlantic region including the Poconos, the Susquehanna Valley and the Nations Capitol as well.

Before detailing the severe weather outlook, let's glance back to yesterday, which turned out to be a destructive and deadly severe weather day. The hardest hit area was in Wisconsin. However there was tornadoes with damage in Wharton, TX, a tornado in Baker County, Oregon with tree damage, a tornado in Dover, NC, and 16 other tornadoes reported in Wisconsin. One of the tornadoes reported in Wisconsin was fatal in Green Lake County where a man was struck and killed in his home by a fallen tree. Definitely a dangerous day on Wednesday and pretty sad considering the fatality we're talking about. I also just got a survey of the Juneau and Adams County tornado and it was rated an F1 on the fujita scale. The statement on this survey is below. More surveys will probably be available this afternoon.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
138 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2004

...TORNADO CONFIRMED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL JUNEAU AND CENTRAL ADAMS
COUNTIES...

A PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS MORNING. THIS SURVEY CONFIRMED THAT A F1 TORNADO
TOUCHED DOWN INITIALLY ABOUT 2 MILES WEST OF CASTLE ROCK DAM IN
EAST CENTRAL JUNEAU COUNTY...AND THEN MOVED EAST INTO WEST CENTRAL
ADAMS COUNTY JUST NORTH OF THE DAM TO QUINCY BLUFF. THIS TORNADO
THEN TRACKED EAST SOUTHEAST FROM EDGEWOOD AVENUE IN EASTON
TOWNSHIP...TO ONE MILE NORTH OF BROOKSIDE...TO FOUR MILES SOUTHEAST
OF GRAND MARSH WHICH IS NEAR THE ADAMS AND MARQUETTE COUNTY LINE.

STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE WAS FOUND SOUTH OF THIS TORNADO. THIS
INCLUDES THE DAMAGE IN EDGEWOOD MOBILE HOME ESTATE. THE TRAILERS
WHICH WERE DAMAGED WERE PERPENDICULAR TO THE WIND.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE GATHERED AND DISSEMINATED AS IT
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

$$

BOYNE


Looking ahead to this afternoon shows several locations of severe weather with possible tornadoes. The more immient area is in Louisiana including the New Orleans area where a brand new severe thunderstorm watch has been issued as of mid afternoon. This severe thunderstorm watch is in effect until 8 PM CDT for most of eastern and southeastern louisiana including Baton Rouge and New Orleans and likewise for southern Mississippi including Gulfport, MS. The main threat will be hail 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts up to 70 mph. However severe thunderstorms can and sometimes can produce tornadoes as well. Some of the strongest storm cells could rotate and go tornado in a few isolated spots across southeast Louisiana and into southern Mississippi also.

However the biggest threat for severe weather today will be in the eastern Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley as a strong cold front with strong jet stream energy combines. As a result, expect a widespread wind damage event potentially along with some hail and again a few tornadoes are likely later today from Cleveland up to Erie, Buffalo, and Rochester as well as storms will likely develop in this region in the next few hours.

A third area of possible severe will likely be into northern Missouri, Kansas, southeastern Colorado and into the TX/OK Panhandle as a cold front slowly moves southward into this area. The main threats will be large hail and high wind with this later today.

By tomorrow, expect some upslope activity in the front range of the Rockies with wind and hail the primary threat. However the area of highest risk will likely be from Virginia and northern North Carolina northward into Maryland, and Pennsylvania where wind damage, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will occur. A cold front will approach this region during the day Friday. Along and ahead of the front, warm, moist, unstable air will advect northward from the Gulf Of Mexico. Meanwhile drier and much cooler air will advect in behind the cold front across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Widespread strong thunderstorms with sctd severe are expected in the Middle Atlantic during the day on Friday. The biggest severe threat though will be damaging winds. However hail and tornadoes may also occur, but in a much smaller probability and more isolated fashion.

This severe wx event will continue to be monitored both today and tomorrow and I'll post another update as neccessary later on today.

Jim

[weatherfan]

Seems like MD and northen VA and southen PA in resent weeks have been hot spots for active thunderstorms and lines.Where as Northen Pa and New Egland and New York been more in the mareine type of patterns.So for those wanting to see some thunderstorm action just head a few mails south.Because that where they been geting some nice activey with these events.Its almost like it seems MD and Southen Pa has been the batter grounds in resent weeks.

[tomboudreau]

Yes, we have been the battle grounds the last few weeks. We have seen our fair share of storms lately and the ground is still really saturated. I fear any major rains from storms might reaggrivate the flooding situation we have had here. I hope that we see no storms in the near future.

TB