July 2004: ‘Season of Relaxation’ on the Beach?

[donsutherland1]

With regard to the weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States, temperatures have been running near normal across the region as a whole, with New England being somewhat cooler than normal and New York City somewhat warmer than normal. This is a little off the ideas expressed in the June outlook in which a generally warm month had been foreseen. A more detailed discussion of the June forecast will be provided once all the results are in.

The July 2, 1857 edition of The New York Times stated:

The Summer, in theory at least, has fairly set in… Our social year is fairly over, circles of every grade are being broken up, friends scattered to all quarters of the world, who will meet no more, and the ties broken that the returning Winter will not reunite. The necessities of a busy life, and of a rigorous climate, entail on us this break in the routine of our work and our pleasure.

With July approaching, classes are finished, dreams of vacations drawing nearer, and the question arises as to whether the “season of relaxation” will bring those living in the Washington, DC to Boston areas abundant opportunities to enjoy the leisure of the beach or relaxation by the poolside.

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one and the latest computer guidance and ensemble data, it appears that July will not disappoint in that respect.

It appears that July will bring generally somewhat warmer than normal readings from Washington, DC to Boston. It also appears likely that the month will also bring at least one heat wave across the region. From New York City southward, it could be a prolonged heat wave of 5 or more days. Rainfall should come out below normal to near normal.

Given the preponderance of analogs, one might reasonably expect the following:

• At least one heat wave with 3 or more consecutive days of 90° readings throughout the region. In New York City and Washington, DC, the heat wave could extend 5 or more days.
• Boston will likely see 6 or more days with high temperatures reaching or exceeding 90°; New York City and Washington, DC will likely see 10 or more such days.
• Washington, DC will likely see 1 or more days on which the temperature reaches 100° or higher. New York City could see one such day.
• The lowest temperature will probably reach the middle and upper 50s in Boston but should fall no lower than the lower 60s in New York City and Washington, DC.

Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region:

July 1-7: Near normal temperatures; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
July 8-14: Above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
July 15-21: Near normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
July 22-28: Above normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
July 29-31: Somewhat below normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation (but above normal precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region)

All-Time Extreme Temperatures for July:

Boston: Highest: 104°, July 4, 1911; Lowest: 50°, July 1, 1988 and July 6, 1879
New York City: Highest: 106°, July 9, 1936; 44°, July 1, 1943
Washington, DC: 106°, July 20, 1930; 52°, July 4, 1933 and July 31, 1895

All said, look for somewhat above normal monthly readings throughout this region. Precipitation should be below normal to near normal.

[donsutherland1]

With respect to the weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region, the following has occurred:

Boston:
July 1-7: Temperature 1.6° below normal; 1.69" precipitation
July 8-14: Temperature 5.1° below normal; 0.67" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 60° 7/15; Highest Temperature: 85°, 7/1

New York City:
July 1-7: Temperature 0.9° above normal; 0.86" precipitation
July 8-14: Temperature 2.9° below normal; 2.57" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 63° 7/13; Highest Temperature: 87°, 7/2,8

Washington, DC:
July 1-7: Temperature 2.1° above normal; 2.82" precipitation
July 8-14: Temperature 1.0° above normal; 0.13" precipitation
Lowest Temperature: 66° 7/15; Highest Temperature: 92°, 7/2,5

Through mid-month, Boston and New York City saw temperatures running below normal, while Washington, DC's readings were running above normal.

This is a quite rare situation. Since 1876, there have been only two years in which July saw below normal readings in Boston and NYC and above normal readings in Washington, DC: 1984 and 1997. Whether or not it is sustained remains to be seen.

At this time, it is possible that the cooler-than-normal SSTA's from the north Mid-Atlantic Coast northward to New England might well be blunting the warmth.

Finally, to date, there have been no heat waves in any of the aforementioned cities.

[Stephanie]

It has been a rather "enjoyable" July weatherwise so far, with the exception of the flooding rains and the F3 tornado experienced this week in the area. I don't miss the heat pump normally generated by the Bermuda High. It's been comfortable, considering what we could've been having.