Pacific really cooling- while Atlantic is nice and toasty

[hurricanetrack]

Well, even though there is nothing brewing in the tropics near our part of the world, the Pacific seems to really be cooling. The cold tongue is now past 150W to some extent. Meanwhile- the Atlantic is overall warmer than average with some areas quite warm. This is very interesting since Dr. Gray mentioned a weak La Nina in some of his work for this season.

Check out the latest OTIS map:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

[Anonymous]

Well, even though there is nothing brewing in the tropics near our part of the world, the Pacific seems to really be cooling. The cold tongue is now past 150W to some extent. Meanwhile- the Atlantic is overall warmer than average with some areas quite warm. This is very interesting since Dr. Gray mentioned a weak La Nina in some of his work for this season.

Check out the latest OTIS map:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTI ... nomaly.gif

Everything should balance out just like what we've been witnessing over the past several months. We currently have cooling along the SA coast due to the dry phase of the MJO pushing westward. Meanwhile, the SOI is still well negative and we have another MJO burst coming up. Also, the Indian monsoon is rather quiet attm, something you would normally see in El Nino years. So even though portions of the PAC are still cool, we still have a lot of mixed signals. Therefore, we have a neutral ENSO.

[elw]

I wouldn't count on it. We've seen these slight fluctuations quite a bit over the past several months.

look for ENSO neutral conditions to continue through at least September.



Also, (and I know this isn't exactly related to the tropics, however for you guys in Florida, you'll want to pay attention to this) take notice to the Cold water north of Hawaii, and Warm water building in the Gulf Of Alaska, could be a major Negative EPO and Positive PNA set-up as we head toward the fall if it continues.

A persistently Positive PNA pattern during the Florida dry season normally correlates well with above normal rainfall and storminess. So let's hope that signal is there.

Here are two examples of the SSTA configuration associated with the extremes of the Positive PNA and Negative EPO signal. (December 1993, 2002)





While I'm not exactly sure at this time whether or not it will get to that point, however, it does bode well for us Floridians if it continues into the dry season. keep your fingers crossed!

[elw]

The 2002-03 Dry season brought near historic wetness over the central part of the state in December. A total of 11 storms that season.

[elw]

Actually, we are seeing some atmospheric response to the North Pacific SSTA configuration. Notice the pretty well defined (almost omega-like) Ridge over western North America, and unseasonably strong and displaced vortex South of Hudson Bay on the 0z 6/25 GFS 500mb analysis.



This is something that you would expect to see during the fall, winter, and spiring, because normally in June and July the PNA signal almost disappears in with the seasonal contraction of the Aleutian low until showing up again in late summer.

Same can be said for the block over Greenland, which can be seen pretty clearly here. That is the same block which has retrograded westward from Greenland Over the Davis strait, and is now stuck over Baffin Island.

On the tropical side of things (I know im getting sorta off topic here, please don't kill me. hehe ) periods following a negative NAO should be watched for development in the Atlantic basin.

[chris_fit]

Very informative and interesting.

Thanks!

[Steve H.]

elw, what does that all mean bottomg line? That you see a wet winter like in EL Nino years coming up for Florida? Or blocking that would lead to stronger SW Atlantic ridging and hence higher storm potential for the peninsula and the GOM region. Was it you who discussed the cold (fall/Winter) type look that could lead to hurricane seasons like the ones from '26 - '38? Inquiring minds want to know!!!