WELL Steve, you hit the NAIL on the head....check out this article from todays Az. Republic
the news just KEEPS getting worse!
http://www.azcentral.com
Monsoon forecast: Late start, more rain
Judy Nichols
The Arizona Republic
Jun. 26, 2004 12:00 AM
Despite the recent dust storm and damp breezes, Arizona's monsoon season is nowhere on the horizon.
Forecasters predict a later arrival this year than the average July 7 start, but also expect more rain than usual.
Special Report
• Monsoon »
And although the moisture will help suppress forest fires, experts say, it will have little effect on the region's worsening drought, the state's shrinking reservoirs or the long-term health of the forests.
Although people often mistake isolated storms for the monsoon, especially at this time of year, the weather phenomenon is technically a seasonal reversal in wind patterns that brings moist air and thunderstorms.
"We perceive a little increase in humidity and thunderstorms lurking on the (Mogollon) Rim as the monsoons," said Andrew Ellis, climatologist for Arizona. "But from an atmospheric standpoint, it doesn't yet look anything like a monsoon."
In fact, this weekend will be drier again, as warm air moves in from California.
Ellis, who predicts monsoon activity for Salt River Project, forecasts a weak or late start to this year's monsoon season but higher-than-average amounts of rainfall.
He believes the season will bring about 150 percent of the normal monsoon rainfall, or about 4 inches, most of it in the last week of July through the first week of September.
The summer monsoon that visits the Southwest is called the North American Monsoon, and it turns the region's westerly winds (those from the west) in a more southerly direction.
From ocean and gulfs
That atmospheric change draws moisture from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico, pulling the rain across central Mexico and into Arizona, New Mexico, southern parts of Colorado and southeastern Utah.
Thunderstorms develop as the damp air is pushed upward by the mountains and heated by the sun.
Much of the rain falls in central Mexico, but Phoenix receives an average of 2.65 inches, about a third of its yearly rainfall.
Rainfall is greater in the mountains, where Greer averages more than 11 inches, and least along the Colorado River Valley, where Yuma averages 1.21 inches.
Most places don't mark a specific start to the monsoon season, taking the stance that the phenomenon has arrived when it starts raining.
But Phoenix and Tucson mark its beginning when the dew point is 55 degrees or higher in Phoenix, 54 degrees or higher for Tucson, for three consecutive days.
At a dew point of 55 degrees, enough moisture is in the atmosphere that if it all precipitated out, it would create 1 inch of rain.
"There isn't anything special about that," Ellis said. "But 55 is a nice number, an inch of rainfall is a nice number, and 55 degrees for a dew point is about the amount needed to kick off thunderstorms here in Phoenix.
"So that's been the standard here for years and years."
Reservoirs and trees
This year's expected higher-than-average rainfall will have only minimal effect on the state's drought-starved reservoirs, Ellis said.
"The reservoirs respond much more to winter precipitation than summer," Ellis said. "Because it's the warm season, a lot of the rain evaporates or is used by plants that are now active."
Water resource managers are focused on winter predictions, he said.
"They realize the monsoon season is not a savior," he said.
Unfortunately, the prediction is for above-normal temperatures for the winter, which usually means dry conditions, more winter irrigation in Phoenix and rapid snow melt, all of which means less water to store.
And one season of rain will not significantly help the region's drought-stressed trees, said Chuck Maxwell, leader of the predictive services group for the Southwest Coordination Center, a group of fire-managing agencies headquartered in Albuquerque.
Thunderstorms tend to run off, while slow snowmelt seeps in.
"For long-term growth, it's entirely critical for the snowpack to be near average and to melt off in average time," Maxwell said.
"That has not occurred in large scale in the last five years."
Maxwell said the West has thousands of acres of dead trees from drought or beetle infestation because they are stressed from lack of water.
"From what I've seen, the deforestation, trees turning red, it's pretty dry," he said. "It's about as dry as ever in people's memories."
Fire season
Maxwell is eagerly awaiting the start of the monsoon but said he doesn't see it coming in the next couple of weeks.
"The start of the monsoon is the beginning of the end of the fire season," he said.
"The start is critical. If they wait another month, we will begin to compete with the rest of the West for firefighting resources."
So far, cooler weather, sparse lightning, more coordination in forest closures and better awareness among campers has kept the number of fire starts down, Maxwell said.
Jim Payne, regional spokesman for the U.S. Forest Service, said recent spectacular fires, media coverage and a public safety campaign have combined to create more awareness and reduce human-caused fires.
"People are taking their camp stove instead of building a fire, and they're having a good time," he said.
To check forest restrictions, go to
http://www.fs.fed.us/r3/fire or call toll-free 1-877-864-6985.
) then if it holds true the monsoon **could** make it very close to southern California.
